ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

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Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-axtra-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5577:1" rel="noopener">CP Axtra (CPAXT TB)</a> has seen a heavy impact on its share price following an announcement it would invest THB12-15bn in a mixed-use property project with a related party. </li>
<li>Investing in malls is part of CP Axtra's business although its major focus is on its retail business which includes wholesale under Makro and its Lotus hypermarket and supermarket businesses.  </li>
<li>The sell-off looks overdone but has been clouded by the sale of shares in parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL</a> by its vice-chairman ahead of the announcement raising further governance concerns. </li>
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CP Axtra (CPAXT TB) has seen a heavy impact on its share price following an announcement it would invest THB12-15bn in a mixed-use property project with a related party. 
Investing in malls is part of CP Axtra's business although its major focus is on its retail business which includes wholesale under Makro and its Lotus hypermarket and supermarket businesses.  
The sell-off looks overdone but has been clouded by the sale of shares in parent CP ALL by its vice-chairman ahead of the announcement raising further governance concerns. 


CP AXTRA (CPAXTRA TB) - Governance Concerns over Property Investment

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>Neutral view on recent deal: In the short term, it may pose downside risk of 2.8% and 1.1% to the 2025-26E profit forecasts due to an immediate increase in interest expenses from higher debt.</li><li>However, revenue generation is expected to begin in 2Q26E. Medium-term risks may arise from intensified competition in the same area, but the long-term prospects are positive for CPAXT, as the project could provide stable income if executed as planned.</li><li>Maintain a Neutral recommendation: The valuation metrics reflect a neutral view on the current fundamentals (the stock price sees 2.4% downside risk from its fair value) and the long- term growth prospects (profit growth expected at a 14% CAGR over the next two years). </li></ul>

Neutral view on recent deal: In the short term, it may pose downside risk of 2.8% and 1.1% to the 2025-26E profit forecasts due to an immediate increase in interest expenses from higher debt.However, revenue generation is expected to begin in 2Q26E. Medium-term risks may arise from intensified competition in the same area, but the long-term prospects are positive for CPAXT, as the project could provide stable income if executed as planned.Maintain a Neutral recommendation: The valuation metrics reflect a neutral view on the current fundamentals (the stock price sees 2.4% downside risk from its fair value) and the long- term growth prospects (profit growth expected at a 14% CAGR over the next two years). 

Cp Axtra - CP Day: CPAXT Investing Bt8bn in Happitat Project

<ul><li>The current valuation has shifted to a neutral view on the fundamentals (previously undervalued), as the stock price has risen 11% over the past month, reaching its fair value.</li><li>In addition, the tactical outlook has been adjusted to neutral (vs. very limited upside risk previously).</li><li>We maintain a strong outlook on the long-term growth prospects (expecting three-year profit growth at a CAGR of 15%). </li></ul>

The current valuation has shifted to a neutral view on the fundamentals (previously undervalued), as the stock price has risen 11% over the past month, reaching its fair value.In addition, the tactical outlook has been adjusted to neutral (vs. very limited upside risk previously).We maintain a strong outlook on the long-term growth prospects (expecting three-year profit growth at a CAGR of 15%). 

Cp Axtra - Upbeat 3Q24 Earnings; Earnings to Peak in 4Q

<ul><li>The valuation metrics have increased the attractiveness of the current fundamentals to undervalued (from neutral previously).</li><li>The latest stock price shows upside of 5% while the long-term growth outlook remains strong (with three-year profit growth projected at a CAGR of 15%).</li><li>The tactical upside risk remains limited. Hence, we maintain a Neutral rating with a fair value of Bt33.37, based on a required return of 3.3%, reflecting the target PER of 30x.</li></ul>

The valuation metrics have increased the attractiveness of the current fundamentals to undervalued (from neutral previously).The latest stock price shows upside of 5% while the long-term growth outlook remains strong (with three-year profit growth projected at a CAGR of 15%).The tactical upside risk remains limited. Hence, we maintain a Neutral rating with a fair value of Bt33.37, based on a required return of 3.3%, reflecting the target PER of 30x.

CP AXTRA - 3Q24E Core Profit Growth Expected at 31% YoY and Flat QoQ

<ul><li>The valuation metrics continue to indicate that the fundamentals are attractive for buying, with the share price suggesting potential upside of 13%.</li><li>We maintain our long-term bullish outlook, expecting earnings to grow at a 15% CAGR over the next three years.</li><li>However, we revise our tactical view to neutral from limited downside risk previously. </li></ul>

The valuation metrics continue to indicate that the fundamentals are attractive for buying, with the share price suggesting potential upside of 13%.We maintain our long-term bullish outlook, expecting earnings to grow at a 15% CAGR over the next three years.However, we revise our tactical view to neutral from limited downside risk previously. 

Cp Axtra - In-Line 2Q24 Earnings; Bullish Earnings Outlook

Thailand

CP Axtra Public Company Limited operates a retail discount store chain. The Company sells food and consumer products to its registered customers including wholesalers, retailers, small businesses, caterers, and private individuals who hold its member cards. CP Axtra serves customers in Thailand.

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CP Axtra (CPAXT TB)

CP AXTRA (CPAXTRA TB) - Governance Concerns over Property Investment

CP Axtra has seen a heavy impact on its share price following an announcement it would invest THB12-15bn in a mixed-use property project called the...

Angus Mackintosh

Cp Axtra - CP Day: CPAXT Investing Bt8bn in Happitat Project

Neutral view on recent deal: In the short term, it may pose downside risk of 2.8% and 1.1% to the 2025-26E profit forecasts due to an immediate...

Krungthai XSpring

Cp Axtra - Upbeat 3Q24 Earnings; Earnings to Peak in 4Q

The current valuation has shifted to a neutral view on the fundamentals (previously undervalued), as the stock price has risen 11% over the past...

Krungthai XSpring

CP AXTRA - 3Q24E Core Profit Growth Expected at 31% YoY and Flat QoQ

The valuation metrics have increased the attractiveness of the current fundamentals to undervalued (from neutral previously).

Krungthai XSpring

Cp Axtra - In-Line 2Q24 Earnings; Bullish Earnings Outlook

The valuation metrics continue to indicate that the fundamentals are attractive for buying, with the share price suggesting potential upside of 13%.

Krungthai XSpring

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