Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Data for May 2021 from both the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) confirm that YoY loan growth for Japanese commercial banks continues to fall, led by the major banks where YoY loan growth is now in negative territory.  Loan growth at all banks fell to just +0.5% YoY at the end of May, according to the JBA (April was +2.6% YoY).  We expect that June data (to be released in mid-July) from the JBA and BoJ may reveal overall YoY loan growth is heading for the zero-level.January through mid-March saw an unusually strong rally in bank shares, in line with trends in other global stock markets.  The Topix Banks Index peaked at 162.08 on 19 March 2021  -  just 4 days after the notorious Ides of March ‘turning-point’ that we have often referred to in Smartkarma Insights on Japanese banks’ share price performance  -  and has softened to the 145 level.  The sector’s surprise outperformance of Topix in CY2021 has been undermined by a sub-par June performance and on a longer-term view (as we show at the end of this Insight) and despite this year’s rally the sector remains a disappointing investment against the broader Topix Index.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a> is the best performer of the major banks so far this year: up +33.6% over the last six months.  That said, this pales in comparison with bank stocks in other markets such as the US and Europe, where economies are recovering from the coronavirus pandemic and there are rising hopes of a mild steepening of the yield curve.  Meanwhile, despite greater concentration on boosting fee income and lowering overheads, many Japan’s banks remain seemingly unable to fully offset the adverse effects of the near-zero interest rate environment on domestic earnings.“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for the remainder of 2021 and beyond.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/215/895/original/8300-WR-JBanks-2021-0628-ZeroSheFlies-TPNBNKvsTPXin2021.jpg?1624939811" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="215895"></figure></section>

Data for May 2021 from both the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) confirm that YoY loan growth for Japanese commercial banks continues to fall, led by the major banks where YoY loan growth is now in negative territory.  Loan growth at all banks fell to just +0.5% YoY at the end of May, according to the JBA (April was +2.6% YoY).  We expect that June data (to be released in mid-July) from the JBA and BoJ may reveal overall YoY loan growth is heading for the zero-level.January through mid-March saw an unusually strong rally in bank shares, in line with trends in other global stock markets.  The Topix Banks Index peaked at 162.08 on 19 March 2021  -  just 4 days after the notorious Ides of March ‘turning-point’ that we have often referred to in Smartkarma Insights on Japanese banks’ share price performance  -  and has softened to the 145 level.  The sector’s surprise outperformance of Topix in CY2021 has been undermined by a sub-par June performance and on a longer-term view (as we show at the end of this Insight) and despite this year’s rally the sector remains a disappointing investment against the broader Topix Index.Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) is the best performer of the major banks so far this year: up +33.6% over the last six months.  That said, this pales in comparison with bank stocks in other markets such as the US and Europe, where economies are recovering from the coronavirus pandemic and there are rising hopes of a mild steepening of the yield curve.  Meanwhile, despite greater concentration on boosting fee income and lowering overheads, many Japan’s banks remain seemingly unable to fully offset the adverse effects of the near-zero interest rate environment on domestic earnings.“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for the remainder of 2021 and beyond.

Stock markets around the world have been reaching record levels, thanks to the unprecedented amounts of money being pumped into the financial markets by the advanced nations’ central banks in a bid to offset the economic damage caused by COVID-19.  In Japan, too, the Topix Index finished 2020 at 1804.68, just off its high-point for the year and up a very modest 4.8% YoY after plummeting around 500 points in March.
For investors in Japanese bank stocks, however, it was another year of pain: the Topix Bank Index closed 2020 down 21.7% YoY.  Moreover, just 5 bank stocks out of the total of 92 showed positive gains YoY.  All 7 major Japanese banks showed YoY declines: the ‘best-performer’ was down 21.1% YoY, with the average major bank YoY decline exceeding 25%.  By the end of 2020, 13 Japanese bank stocks had lost over one-third of their value, although they had been considerably lower earlier in the year.
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2021 commences with bank lending at near record-high levels after a record surge in lending, a mountain of cash on deposit that the banks are struggling to deploy profitably, exceptionally low loan to deposit (LDR) ratios, margins under pressure, profits under pressure and, for many banks, dividends under pressure as well.  None of this is likely to boost investor confidence in Japanese bank stocks.
Business models need to be reinvented to properly incorporate the new digital era, branches amalgamated or closed, and staff reduced.  This will take time and be costly.
Meanwhile, two banks have already suggested that they will likely make consolidated net losses in FY3/3021, with others perhaps to follow as we approach the end of the fiscal year in March.
2021 will also see a handful of regional bank mergers; indeed, this has already started with the first on 1 January 2021, creating the Daishi Hokuetsu Bank (part of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daishi-hokuetsu-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27533:1" rel="noopener">Daishi Hokuetsu Financial Group (7327 JP)</a> ).  While these will be welcomed by the Suga Administration, which is actively encouraging a reduction in the number of regional banks, especially in the more rural parts of the country, there is no guarantee that the surviving entities will be any more profitable or efficient than their predecessors.
Then there is the coronavirus pandemic, which continues to cause social lockdowns, economic disruption, and financial uncertainty aside from its devastating impact on the health and wellbeing of humankind.  All of this still needs to be properly discounted in Japanese bank share prices.  We anticipate further share price weakness in many Japanese banks in 2021.
“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for 2021 and beyond.

Stock markets around the world have been reaching record levels, thanks to the unprecedented amounts of money being pumped into the financial markets by the advanced nations’ central banks in a bid to offset the economic damage caused by COVID-19.  In Japan, too, the Topix Index finished 2020 at 1804.68, just off its high-point for the year and up a very modest 4.8% YoY after plummeting around 500 points in March.
For investors in Japanese bank stocks, however, it was another year of pain: the Topix Bank Index closed 2020 down 21.7% YoY.  Moreover, just 5 bank stocks out of the total of 92 showed positive gains YoY.  All 7 major Japanese banks showed YoY declines: the ‘best-performer’ was down 21.1% YoY, with the average major bank YoY decline exceeding 25%.  By the end of 2020, 13 Japanese bank stocks had lost over one-third of their value, although they had been considerably lower earlier in the year.




2021 commences with bank lending at near record-high levels after a record surge in lending, a mountain of cash on deposit that the banks are struggling to deploy profitably, exceptionally low loan to deposit (LDR) ratios, margins under pressure, profits under pressure and, for many banks, dividends under pressure as well.  None of this is likely to boost investor confidence in Japanese bank stocks.
Business models need to be reinvented to properly incorporate the new digital era, branches amalgamated or closed, and staff reduced.  This will take time and be costly.
Meanwhile, two banks have already suggested that they will likely make consolidated net losses in FY3/3021, with others perhaps to follow as we approach the end of the fiscal year in March.
2021 will also see a handful of regional bank mergers; indeed, this has already started with the first on 1 January 2021, creating the Daishi Hokuetsu Bank (part of the Daishi Hokuetsu Financial Group (7327 JP) ).  While these will be welcomed by the Suga Administration, which is actively encouraging a reduction in the number of regional banks, especially in the more rural parts of the country, there is no guarantee that the surviving entities will be any more profitable or efficient than their predecessors.
Then there is the coronavirus pandemic, which continues to cause social lockdowns, economic disruption, and financial uncertainty aside from its devastating impact on the health and wellbeing of humankind.  All of this still needs to be properly discounted in Japanese bank share prices.  We anticipate further share price weakness in many Japanese banks in 2021.
“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for 2021 and beyond.

Japanese people are renowned for their thrift.  Even when deposit interest rates are zero they continue to save.  Cash continues to pour into the banks at near-record levels, both from corporates and from individuals.  But that is not good news: there is little the banks can do with all those savings when loan rates are also zero (and less than zero in some circumstances!).  Unsurprisingly, Japanese banks are not looking forward to a particularly Merry Christmas this year.Deposit growth at the 112 banks that are members of the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA) touched +9.4% YoY in November 2020: the 2nd-highest YoY growth level ever recorded and just short of the record +9.5% YoY growth rate set back in August.  Most of the additional ¥8.251 trillion (US$79.34 billion) in funds deposited with the banks in November ended up with the major banks, pushing their loan-to-deposit ratios (LDRs) down to record lows of inefficiency as deposit inflows were over four times greater than new loan outflows.  Only the secondary regional banks registered a small decline in deposit balances: a curious development, as their loan balances grew by a record +7.0% YoY.As the world gets ready to celebrate the end of what has been a terrible year globally and to welcome in the start of 2021 in the fervent hope that it will prove to be better than 2020, there is seemingly no end to the financial pain for Japan’s embattled banks… or for their long-suffering shareholders.“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for 2021 and beyond.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/179/761/original/TPNBNK+vs+TPX+in+CY2020.jpg?1608608493" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="179761"></figure></section>

Japanese people are renowned for their thrift.  Even when deposit interest rates are zero they continue to save.  Cash continues to pour into the banks at near-record levels, both from corporates and from individuals.  But that is not good news: there is little the banks can do with all those savings when loan rates are also zero (and less than zero in some circumstances!).  Unsurprisingly, Japanese banks are not looking forward to a particularly Merry Christmas this year.Deposit growth at the 112 banks that are members of the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA) touched +9.4% YoY in November 2020: the 2nd-highest YoY growth level ever recorded and just short of the record +9.5% YoY growth rate set back in August.  Most of the additional ¥8.251 trillion (US$79.34 billion) in funds deposited with the banks in November ended up with the major banks, pushing their loan-to-deposit ratios (LDRs) down to record lows of inefficiency as deposit inflows were over four times greater than new loan outflows.  Only the secondary regional banks registered a small decline in deposit balances: a curious development, as their loan balances grew by a record +7.0% YoY.As the world gets ready to celebrate the end of what has been a terrible year globally and to welcome in the start of 2021 in the fervent hope that it will prove to be better than 2020, there is seemingly no end to the financial pain for Japan’s embattled banks… or for their long-suffering shareholders.“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for 2021 and beyond.

Japanese Banks:  Remember, Remember, the Thrift of November

The latest data from both the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA) indicate that, while loan growth remains strong in annual terms, loan outstandings have eased back to where they were in May.  In essence, much of the increase in lending by the major banks seen between March and June was then reversed between July and October.
Peak lending occurred in June, when outstanding loans reached ¥535.407 trillion (US$5.10 trillion).  Since then, the rate of year-on-year (YoY) growth has remained just above +6%, thanks to exceptionally strong loan demand in the March-June period which pushed overall loan balances by as much as ¥34.4 trillion (US$331.0 billion) YoY.  However, total loan outstandings thereafter fell every month between July and October, bottoming out in November when the major banks finally registered an increase in lending for the first time in five months.  Month-on-month (MoM) growth in regional bank lending has slowed to a comparative trickle, with loan outstandings falling 0.2% MoM in November.  This does not bode well for 2H FY3/2021 banking sector profits generally, especially as credit costs are continuing to ‘normalise’ even as revenues and margins  -  not to mention shareholder returns  -  remain under pressure.
“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for 2021 and beyond.

The latest data from both the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA) indicate that, while loan growth remains strong in annual terms, loan outstandings have eased back to where they were in May.  In essence, much of the increase in lending by the major banks seen between March and June was then reversed between July and October.
Peak lending occurred in June, when outstanding loans reached ¥535.407 trillion (US$5.10 trillion).  Since then, the rate of year-on-year (YoY) growth has remained just above +6%, thanks to exceptionally strong loan demand in the March-June period which pushed overall loan balances by as much as ¥34.4 trillion (US$331.0 billion) YoY.  However, total loan outstandings thereafter fell every month between July and October, bottoming out in November when the major banks finally registered an increase in lending for the first time in five months.  Month-on-month (MoM) growth in regional bank lending has slowed to a comparative trickle, with loan outstandings falling 0.2% MoM in November.  This does not bode well for 2H FY3/2021 banking sector profits generally, especially as credit costs are continuing to ‘normalise’ even as revenues and margins  -  not to mention shareholder returns  -  remain under pressure.
“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for 2021 and beyond.

Equity Bottom-Up

Interim results for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gunma-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15777:1" rel="noopener">Gunma Bank (8334 JP)</a>, the dominant bank in Gunma Prefecture northwest of the Japanese capital Tokyo, comfortably beat the bank’s own guidance despite hefty COVID-19-related loan loss provisioning taken in 1Q.  The bank has left its full-year guidance unchanged, expecting consolidated net profits of ¥20.5 billion, or ¥49/share, with dividends for the year of ¥13/share, suggesting a dividend payout ratio of around 27%.  On a prospective PER (using the bank’s revised guidance) of 7.0x and a low PBR of 0.30x, the stock remains inexpensive against peers despite having risen some 30% since touching a 2020 low in mid-March.  Surprisingly, foreign investors own in aggregate less than 18% of this undervalued Japanese regional bank.  Worth considering.

Interim results for Gunma Bank (8334 JP), the dominant bank in Gunma Prefecture northwest of the Japanese capital Tokyo, comfortably beat the bank’s own guidance despite hefty COVID-19-related loan loss provisioning taken in 1Q.  The bank has left its full-year guidance unchanged, expecting consolidated net profits of ¥20.5 billion, or ¥49/share, with dividends for the year of ¥13/share, suggesting a dividend payout ratio of around 27%.  On a prospective PER (using the bank’s revised guidance) of 7.0x and a low PBR of 0.30x, the stock remains inexpensive against peers despite having risen some 30% since touching a 2020 low in mid-March.  Surprisingly, foreign investors own in aggregate less than 18% of this undervalued Japanese regional bank.  Worth considering.

Gunma Bank (8334 JP):  Hiding in Plain Sight

Japan

The Shizuoka Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank that mainly operates in Shizuoka and its surrounding area. The Bank provides general banking services such as deposits, loans, and exchange transactions. The Shizuoka Bank also offers trust banking, securities brokerage, leasing, and consulting services.

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Shizuoka Bank (8355 JP)

Japanese Bank Lending: Zero She Flies

The sector’s surprise outperformance of Topix in CY2021 has been undermined by a sub-par June performance. Zero growth beckons. Caveat Emptor...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Japanese Banks: Ever Lower

For investors in Japanese bank stocks, 2020 was another year of pain. The sector fell almost 22% YoY; only 5 bank stocks out of 92 registered YoY...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Japanese Banks: Remember, Remember, the Thrift of November

Japanese people are renowned for their thrift. Even when deposit interest rates are zero they continue to save. But there is little the banks can...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Japanese Bank Lending: Losing Momentum

Loan balances have eased back to May levels, with much of the increase in lending by the major banks in March-June reversing between July and...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Gunma Bank (8334 JP): Hiding in Plain Sight

On a PER of 7.0x and a PBR of 0.30x, the stock remains inexpensive against peers despite being up some 30% since touching a low in mid-March. This...

J. Brian Waterhouse

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