Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Quantitative Analysis

<p>In this Smartkarma Original, we bring to you a quantitative approach for identifying Asian companies that are likely to raise/cut dividend. Applying this approach to a universe of 920+ companies listed across Asia helped us identify 150+ and 20+ companies, respectively, that have a high likelihood of raising/cutting dividends, over the next five years.</p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>What's Original?</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>We have two separate models, one for forecasting Dividend Raise and the other for Dividend Cut.</li>
<li>Our back test results are very encouraging with &gt;90% hit rate for our Dividend Raise model and 100% hit rate for our Dividend Cut model.</li>
<li>For our Dividend Raise model, we apply a combination of eight stringent parameters and use last 7Y historical data to find companies that have consistently performed strong, lending our model a high hit rate.</li>
<li>For our Dividend Cut model, we differentiate from other models by focusing on companies that have had high dividend payout ratio (&gt;50%) over last 3Y. This criterion helps us in identifying companies where there is limited scope for dividend growth through increase in dividend payouts. In our observation, such companies are most vulnerable to cut dividend when faced with weakening fundamentals or deteriorating balance sheet.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<h3>Insight Flow</h3>
<ul>
<li>Live Dashboard</li>
<li> Methodology
<ul>
<li>Philosophy</li>
<li>Dividend Raise Model</li>
<li>Dividend Cut Model</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Universe</li>
<li>Back Test Results
<ul>
<li>Dividend Raise Model</li>
<li>Dividend Cut Model</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Model Results
<ul>
<li>Companies with High Probability of Dividend Raise</li>
<li>Companies with High Probability of Dividend Cut</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Model Risks &amp; Limitations</li>
<li>Conclusion</li>
</ul>

In this Smartkarma Original, we bring to you a quantitative approach for identifying Asian companies that are likely to raise/cut dividend. Applying this approach to a universe of 920+ companies listed across Asia helped us identify 150+ and 20+ companies, respectively, that have a high likelihood of raising/cutting dividends, over the next five years.

What's Original?

We have two separate models, one for forecasting Dividend Raise and the other for Dividend Cut.
Our back test results are very encouraging with &gt;90% hit rate for our Dividend Raise model and 100% hit rate for our Dividend Cut model.
For our Dividend Raise model, we apply a combination of eight stringent parameters and use last 7Y historical data to find companies that have consistently performed strong, lending our model a high hit rate.
For our Dividend Cut model, we differentiate from other models by focusing on companies that have had high dividend payout ratio (&gt;50%) over last 3Y. This criterion helps us in identifying companies where there is limited scope for dividend growth through increase in dividend payouts. In our observation, such companies are most vulnerable to cut dividend when faced with weakening fundamentals or deteriorating balance sheet.


Insight Flow

Live Dashboard
 Methodology

Philosophy
Dividend Raise Model
Dividend Cut Model


Universe
Back Test Results

Dividend Raise Model
Dividend Cut Model


Model Results

Companies with High Probability of Dividend Raise
Companies with High Probability of Dividend Cut


Model Risks &amp; Limitations
Conclusion


Asia Dividend Forecasting | The Rise and Fall of Dividends Across Asian Companies

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/129/661/original/2020-04-26_07-20-46.png?1587853286" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="129661"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>THE WEDGE</strong> - Both Japanese equities and the $/¥ exchange rate have traded in a narrow range over the last two weeks. Undeterred, the Bank of Japan intervened through ETF purchases three times last week. In total, since the low of March 16th, the central bank has bought ETFs equivalent to 3.5% of market value, and have supported a 15% 29-day rally. As the markets consolidate in anticipation of the impending 'rendezvous with reality' in the form of quarterly earnings, the resolution of the 'wedge' formations above will be to the downside.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/129/662/original/2020-04-26_07-39-05.png?1587854366" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="129662"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>CANARIES</strong> - As we noted in Friday's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-revisions-results-23rd-april-getting-worse-rapidly-obics-tgas-canon-omron" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38697" rel="noopener">Results Review</a>, interim forecasts are a useful 'canary' and, with some help from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fanuc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1" rel="noopener">Fanuc (6954 JP)</a>, our composite Score is heading lower rapidly. A growing number of companies lacking Fanuc's candour are refusing to make initial full-year or interim forecasts this year leaving the market, and the sell-side, to 'fly blind'. The lack of foresight is resulting in a degree of misplaced optimism, as amply demonstrated by Friday's 7.5% gain in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15904:1" rel="noopener">Omron (6645 JP)</a> for 'beating' a six-month-old forecast for a mostly pre-COVID-19 year.     </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/129/665/original/File%202020-04-26%205%2006%2033.jpeg?1587856452" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="129665"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/129/666/original/File%202020-04-26%205%2007%2018.jpeg?1587856466" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="129666"></figure><p><strong>PERSISTENCE</strong> - Japan is still 'behind' the world and ahead of the rest of Asia in COVID-19 metrics - Marco Piani's excellent global timeline chart is attached as an Appendix in the DETAIL below. The number of confirmed new cases is persistent at around 300, of which, alarmingly, an increasing number are outside Tokyo, while the rolling 3-day number of deaths is moving more towards Europe than the rest of Asia. The northern island of Hokkaido which saw some of the earliest case clusters in Japan is experiencing a second wave of infections.  Nishimura, the Cabinet minister in charge of the response to COVID-19, is now in quarantine at home after one of his aides tested positive. Sunday has brought some welcome good news - the nationwide daily case count has declined to 140. <strong>Nevertheless, with just ten days until the proposed end of the states of emergency, at least one extension is likely, possibly until the end of May. Such a declaration is not yet discounted in the equity market.</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/129/667/original/IMG_1515.jpg?1587857128" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="129667"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • NHK</div><p><strong>PREVALENCE</strong> - Although a lack of widespread testing biases this data, the detected rates of infection by age cohort (descending in the chart above) and sex (male blue/female red) reveal the consequences of Japan's version of social distancing. The highest rates of infection are amongst those that have to commute or come into contact with others, men between the ages of 20 and 50 and childless women in their twenties, many of whom work in hospitals or check-out counters. 10% of all COVID-19 cases in Japan are medical staff or patients who were infected nosocomially.  Testing is still a major bottleneck due to excessive fax-centric bureaucracy and reliance on only non-private institutions. Only 6,000 tests are being carried out every day, two-thirds of total capacity, and the results take one week to obtain. </p><p><strong>PLEASE DIE AT HOME</strong> - A number of those infected with COVID-19 who have been told to 'stay home' as the hospitals are full are now dying in situ or on the street. Some local governments are being forced to change tack. All newly-confirmed patients that cannot be accommodated in hospitals are to be moved to hotels with medical staff in attendance. However, there is now a severe shortage of such personnel. Hospitals in Tokyo are still turning away suspected COVID-19 patients. Aichi prefecture has resorted to offering 'subsidies' of up to ¥4 million to hospitals for accepting new patients.</p><p><strong>ANTI-SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR</strong> - Japan is not immune to anti-social behaviour at the worst of times. Cars with license plates from other prefectures have been vandalised when parked or tailgated or verbally-abused on the road. Child care facilities are turning away children of hospital staff for fear they may already be asymptomatic carriers, prompting many medical workers to quit their jobs. Some companies are requiring employees who are working from home to be monitored by video during working hours to ensure they are at their desks and not helping out with the housework.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/129/670/original/title_1.jpg?1587859428" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="129670"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Sharp</div><p><strong>ABE-'NO-MASKS'</strong><strong>AND THE SHARP LOTTERY</strong> - The government has had to recall the small washable cloth masks that PM Abe planned to distribute two of per household due to mould, stains and insects being found in up to one-third of early batches. The roll-out of these much-criticised 'Abe masks' will be further delayed. Meanwhile, demand for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sharp-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:391:1" rel="noopener">Sharp (6753 JP)</a>'s newly-manufactured higher quality single-use masks so overwhelmed the company's website, that Sharp has decided to hold a lottery as a way of rationing demand.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/129/725/original/2020-04-26_15-42-04.png?1587883347" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="129725"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source ♦ Japan Analytics</div><p>In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made on Friday by larger-cap companies.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for Friday's 28 results announcements was 13:1:14, and the net change in Results Score was -1. For the 47 revisions/forecasts, the split was 21:2:24 but the net change in Revision Score totalled -170. Of the eighteen companies declaring full-year results, only half made interim or annual forecasts for the current year. As we shall see below the 'worst' forecasts were from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fanuc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1" rel="noopener">Fanuc (6954 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amano-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8135:1" rel="noopener">Amano (6436 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ana-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5308:1" rel="noopener">ANA (9202 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso (6902 JP)</a> (see chart above). Large=caps with improved Revisions Scores were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mochida-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3655:1" rel="noopener">Mochida Pharmaceutical (4534 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/okinawa-cellular-telephone" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6517:1" rel="noopener">Okinawa Cellular Telephone (9436 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acom-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8897:1" rel="noopener">Acom (8572 JP)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi (4507 JP)</a> and two other companies raised dividends; none cut their payouts.</p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsTHE WEDGE - Both Japanese equities and the $/¥ exchange rate have traded in a narrow range over the last two weeks. Undeterred, the Bank of Japan intervened through ETF purchases three times last week. In total, since the low of March 16th, the central bank has bought ETFs equivalent to 3.5% of market value, and have supported a 15% 29-day rally. As the markets consolidate in anticipation of the impending 'rendezvous with reality' in the form of quarterly earnings, the resolution of the 'wedge' formations above will be to the downside.Source • Japan AnalyticsCANARIES - As we noted in Friday's Results Review, interim forecasts are a useful 'canary' and, with some help from Fanuc (6954 JP), our composite Score is heading lower rapidly. A growing number of companies lacking Fanuc's candour are refusing to make initial full-year or interim forecasts this year leaving the market, and the sell-side, to 'fly blind'. The lack of foresight is resulting in a degree of misplaced optimism, as amply demonstrated by Friday's 7.5% gain in Omron (6645 JP) for 'beating' a six-month-old forecast for a mostly pre-COVID-19 year.     PERSISTENCE - Japan is still 'behind' the world and ahead of the rest of Asia in COVID-19 metrics - Marco Piani's excellent global timeline chart is attached as an Appendix in the DETAIL below. The number of confirmed new cases is persistent at around 300, of which, alarmingly, an increasing number are outside Tokyo, while the rolling 3-day number of deaths is moving more towards Europe than the rest of Asia. The northern island of Hokkaido which saw some of the earliest case clusters in Japan is experiencing a second wave of infections.  Nishimura, the Cabinet minister in charge of the response to COVID-19, is now in quarantine at home after one of his aides tested positive. Sunday has brought some welcome good news - the nationwide daily case count has declined to 140. Nevertheless, with just ten days until the proposed end of the states of emergency, at least one extension is likely, possibly until the end of May. Such a declaration is not yet discounted in the equity market.Source • NHKPREVALENCE - Although a lack of widespread testing biases this data, the detected rates of infection by age cohort (descending in the chart above) and sex (male blue/female red) reveal the consequences of Japan's version of social distancing. The highest rates of infection are amongst those that have to commute or come into contact with others, men between the ages of 20 and 50 and childless women in their twenties, many of whom work in hospitals or check-out counters. 10% of all COVID-19 cases in Japan are medical staff or patients who were infected nosocomially.  Testing is still a major bottleneck due to excessive fax-centric bureaucracy and reliance on only non-private institutions. Only 6,000 tests are being carried out every day, two-thirds of total capacity, and the results take one week to obtain. PLEASE DIE AT HOME - A number of those infected with COVID-19 who have been told to 'stay home' as the hospitals are full are now dying in situ or on the street. Some local governments are being forced to change tack. All newly-confirmed patients that cannot be accommodated in hospitals are to be moved to hotels with medical staff in attendance. However, there is now a severe shortage of such personnel. Hospitals in Tokyo are still turning away suspected COVID-19 patients. Aichi prefecture has resorted to offering 'subsidies' of up to ¥4 million to hospitals for accepting new patients.ANTI-SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR - Japan is not immune to anti-social behaviour at the worst of times. Cars with license plates from other prefectures have been vandalised when parked or tailgated or verbally-abused on the road. Child care facilities are turning away children of hospital staff for fear they may already be asymptomatic carriers, prompting many medical workers to quit their jobs. Some companies are requiring employees who are working from home to be monitored by video during working hours to ensure they are at their desks and not helping out with the housework.Source • SharpABE-'NO-MASKS'AND THE SHARP LOTTERY - The government has had to recall the small washable cloth masks that PM Abe planned to distribute two of per household due to mould, stains and insects being found in up to one-third of early batches. The roll-out of these much-criticised 'Abe masks' will be further delayed. Meanwhile, demand for Sharp (6753 JP)'s newly-manufactured higher quality single-use masks so overwhelmed the company's website, that Sharp has decided to hold a lottery as a way of rationing demand.Source ♦ Japan AnalyticsIn the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made on Friday by larger-cap companies.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for Friday's 28 results announcements was 13:1:14, and the net change in Results Score was -1. For the 47 revisions/forecasts, the split was 21:2:24 but the net change in Revision Score totalled -170. Of the eighteen companies declaring full-year results, only half made interim or annual forecasts for the current year. As we shall see below the 'worst' forecasts were from Fanuc (6954 JP), Amano (6436 JP), ANA (9202 JP), and Denso (6902 JP) (see chart above). Large=caps with improved Revisions Scores were Mochida Pharmaceutical (4534 JP), Okinawa Cellular Telephone (9436 JP) and Acom (8572 JP). Shionogi (4507 JP) and two other companies raised dividends; none cut their payouts.

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET (& COVID-19) UPDATE 26th April - Thin End of the Wedge

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<div><p>The short notional in the market for the data released 25 February is US$25.03bn (up by US$955mm excluding FX movements) with the largest short positions in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-heavy-industries-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5439:1">Subaru Corp (7270 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a>.</p></div><div><p>Most shorted stocks as a percentage of free float are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anritsu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3700:1">Anritsu Corp (6754 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aruhi-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26072:1">Aruhi Corp (7198 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokai-carbon-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9145:1">Tokai Carbon (5301 JP)</a> while the stocks with the highest days to cover are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vital-ksk-holdings-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7398:1">Vital Ksk Holdings (3151 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aruhi-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26072:1"></a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/katakura-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2007:1">Katakura Industries (3001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-trust-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20246:1">J Trust Co Ltd (8508 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dcm-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13042:1">Dcm Holdings (3050 JP)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1"></a></p></div><div><p>The largest increases in short notional over the week were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-heavy-industries-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5439:1">Subaru Corp (7270 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a> while shorts were covered in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fanuc-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1">Fanuc Corp (6954 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokai-carbon-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9145:1">Tokai Carbon (5301 JP)</a>.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-enix-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15003:1"></a></p></div><div><p>Sectorally, short positions increased in Consumer Staples (US$283m), Consumer Discretionary (US$273m) and Health Care (US$112m).</p></div>

The short notional in the market for the data released 25 February is US$25.03bn (up by US$955mm excluding FX movements) with the largest short positions in Itochu Corp (8001 JP), Toyota Motor (7203 JP), Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), Subaru Corp (7270 JP) and Canon Inc (7751 JP).Most shorted stocks as a percentage of free float are Anritsu Corp (6754 JP), Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), Aruhi Corp (7198 JP) and Tokai Carbon (5301 JP) while the stocks with the highest days to cover are Vital Ksk Holdings (3151 JP), Katakura Industries (3001 JP), J Trust Co Ltd (8508 JP) and Dcm Holdings (3050 JP). The largest increases in short notional over the week were Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP), Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP), Subaru Corp (7270 JP) and Advantest Corp (6857 JP) while shorts were covered in Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), Fanuc Corp (6954 JP), M3 Inc (2413 JP) and Tokai Carbon (5301 JP).  Sectorally, short positions increased in Consumer Staples (US$283m), Consumer Discretionary (US$273m) and Health Care (US$112m).

Japan - Big Increase in Shorts Led by Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary Names

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/403/original/2020-02-18_08-44-22.png?1581983074" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118403"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/404/original/2020-02-18_08-42-56.png?1581983098" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118404"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>THREE-YEAR LOW</strong> - With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bridgestone-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8914:1" rel="noopener">Bridgestone (5108 JP)</a>'s results and revision now added, our final tally for this season is a 196 basis point decline in our <strong>Results Sore</strong> - the lowest since March 2017.  In contrast, the Forecast/Revision Score reached a three-month high as the 470 companies with December year-ends put an optimistic gloss on their medium-term outlook. As we have noted in our recent daily roundups, a normal precondition for a cycle low is for the <strong>Forecast/Revision Score</strong> to rise above the <strong>Results Score</strong>. <strong>Forecast/Revision Score</strong> peaks and troughs usually occur one to two quarters ahead of those for the <strong>Results Score</strong>.  Covid-19's impact will likely see the 2016 'playbook' repeated next quarter with a lower Results Score and a 'sideways' Forecast/Results Score. The <strong>Results Score</strong> cycle low point will be reached with the mostly-interim results to be released in six months. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/405/original/2020-02-18_09-29-28.png?1581985792" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118405"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>LEADING INDICATOR</strong> - By including several momentum factors into our Scoring (see below), we can provide a better indication of future business conditions. Indeed there is a 0.83 correlation between the Cabinet Office's Business Condition Leading Indicator and the<strong> Forecast/Revision Score</strong>. Reported earnings, as well as company forecasts, are <em>lagging</em> indicators and, as shown in Part 1 of this Insight. Both data series peaked one year after our Scores and the market peaked in early 2018. </p><p><strong>SCORING METHODOLOGY</strong> - For those new to these Insights, we briefly recap our scoring methodology below:-</p><ul>
<li><p><strong>Results Scores</strong> are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of company data for Revenues, Operating Income and Operating Margin and, for each, measure the rate, degree and consistency of change. The Results Score has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. Our data series commences from the time a particular company issues quarterly results. The sample size becomes significant from March 2005.</p></li>
<li><p>The <strong>Forecast/Revision Score</strong> is based on both Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month (TTM) or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted. This Score also has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period.  For this series, our data samples start from August 2008.</p></li>
<li><p>The combined <strong>Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS)</strong> is the average of the <strong>Results Score</strong> and the<strong> Forecasts/Revision Score</strong>.</p></li>
<li>
<p>All company Scores are then cap-weight-aggregated into <strong>Sector</strong>, <strong>Peer Group</strong> and <strong>Market Composite</strong> Scores for which the seventeen-year monthly and two-year daily track records are shown above. Only currently listed-companies are covered in the aggregate Scores, and the Total Market Capitalisation excludes delisted entities. REITs are not included.</p>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• SECTOR SCORES •</strong></p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/410/original/2020-02-18_09-55-29.png?1581987489" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118410"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> Section below, we provide a detailed breakdown of our RRS Scoring for Sectors, Peer Groups and individual companies, highlighting this quarter's 'winners' and 'losers'. The chart above shows a  seventeen-year 'timeline' of the cap-weight-aggregated Sector RRS Scores and the ebbs and flows around the business cycles. The <strong>Metals</strong> Sector is the most volatile on the downside and has yet to 'bottom' this cycle. <strong>Technology Hardware</strong> appears to have already rebounded; however, Covid-19 suggests this Sector may relapse. On the upside, the<strong> Information Technology</strong> Sector has replaced the <strong>Internet</strong> and <strong>Telecoms</strong> Sectors as the contra-cyclical 'champion'. </p>
</li>
</ul>

Source • Japan AnalyticsTHREE-YEAR LOW - With Bridgestone (5108 JP)'s results and revision now added, our final tally for this season is a 196 basis point decline in our Results Sore - the lowest since March 2017.  In contrast, the Forecast/Revision Score reached a three-month high as the 470 companies with December year-ends put an optimistic gloss on their medium-term outlook. As we have noted in our recent daily roundups, a normal precondition for a cycle low is for the Forecast/Revision Score to rise above the Results Score. Forecast/Revision Score peaks and troughs usually occur one to two quarters ahead of those for the Results Score.  Covid-19's impact will likely see the 2016 'playbook' repeated next quarter with a lower Results Score and a 'sideways' Forecast/Results Score. The Results Score cycle low point will be reached with the mostly-interim results to be released in six months. Source • Japan AnalyticsLEADING INDICATOR - By including several momentum factors into our Scoring (see below), we can provide a better indication of future business conditions. Indeed there is a 0.83 correlation between the Cabinet Office's Business Condition Leading Indicator and the Forecast/Revision Score. Reported earnings, as well as company forecasts, are lagging indicators and, as shown in Part 1 of this Insight. Both data series peaked one year after our Scores and the market peaked in early 2018. SCORING METHODOLOGY - For those new to these Insights, we briefly recap our scoring methodology below:-
Results Scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of company data for Revenues, Operating Income and Operating Margin and, for each, measure the rate, degree and consistency of change. The Results Score has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. Our data series commences from the time a particular company issues quarterly results. The sample size becomes significant from March 2005.
The Forecast/Revision Score is based on both Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month (TTM) or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted. This Score also has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period.  For this series, our data samples start from August 2008.
The combined Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) is the average of the Results Score and the Forecasts/Revision Score.

All company Scores are then cap-weight-aggregated into Sector, Peer Group and Market Composite Scores for which the seventeen-year monthly and two-year daily track records are shown above. Only currently listed-companies are covered in the aggregate Scores, and the Total Market Capitalisation excludes delisted entities. REITs are not included.

• SECTOR SCORES •
Source • Japan Analytics
In the DETAIL Section below, we provide a detailed breakdown of our RRS Scoring for Sectors, Peer Groups and individual companies, highlighting this quarter's 'winners' and 'losers'. The chart above shows a  seventeen-year 'timeline' of the cap-weight-aggregated Sector RRS Scores and the ebbs and flows around the business cycles. The Metals Sector is the most volatile on the downside and has yet to 'bottom' this cycle. Technology Hardware appears to have already rebounded; however, Covid-19 suggests this Sector may relapse. On the upside, the Information Technology Sector has replaced the Internet and Telecoms Sectors as the contra-cyclical 'champion'. 



🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP! Part 2: 2020-Q1 Results & Revision Scores

<div><p>The short notional in the market for the week ending 7 February is US$25.00bn (up by US$100mm) with the largest short positions in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anritsu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3700:1"></a></p></div><div><p>Most shorted stocks as a percentage of free float are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anritsu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3700:1">Anritsu Corp (6754 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/leopalace21-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8244:1">Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokai-carbon-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9145:1">Tokai Carbon (5301 JP)</a> while the stocks with the highest days to cover are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vital-ksk-holdings-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7398:1">Vital Ksk Holdings (3151 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aruhi-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26072:1"></a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/katakura-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2007:1">Katakura Industries (3001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-trust-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20246:1">J Trust Co Ltd (8508 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/edion-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14358:1"></a></p></div><div><p>The largest increases in short notional over the week were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-heavy-industries-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5439:1">Subaru Corp (7270 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ana-holdings-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5308:1">Ana Holdings (9202 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minebea-mitsumi-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5032:1">Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-enix-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15003:1">Square Enix Holdings (9684 JP)</a> while shorts were covered in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/showa-denko-k-k" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1496:1">Showa Denko K K (4004 JP)</a>.    <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamaha-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17841:1"></a></p></div><div><p>Sectorally, short positions were increased in Industrials (US$204m), Consumer Discretionary (US$174m) and Communication Services (US$60m) while shorts were covered in Materials (US$125m), Information Technology (US$100m) and Consumer Staples (US$63m).</p></div>

The short notional in the market for the week ending 7 February is US$25.00bn (up by US$100mm) with the largest short positions in Itochu Corp (8001 JP), Toyota Motor (7203 JP), Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), Canon Inc (7751 JP) and KDDI Corp (9433 JP). Most shorted stocks as a percentage of free float are Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), Anritsu Corp (6754 JP), Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP) and Tokai Carbon (5301 JP) while the stocks with the highest days to cover are Vital Ksk Holdings (3151 JP), Katakura Industries (3001 JP), J Trust Co Ltd (8508 JP) and Itochu Corp (8001 JP). The largest increases in short notional over the week were Subaru Corp (7270 JP), Ana Holdings (9202 JP), Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) and Square Enix Holdings (9684 JP) while shorts were covered in ZOZO Inc (3092 JP), Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP), Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP) and Showa Denko K K (4004 JP).    Sectorally, short positions were increased in Industrials (US$204m), Consumer Discretionary (US$174m) and Communication Services (US$60m) while shorts were covered in Materials (US$125m), Information Technology (US$100m) and Consumer Staples (US$63m).

Japan - Shorts Cover Consumer Staples, Increase Positions on Consumer Discretionary

Japan

Shionogi & Company Ltd., is a pharmaceutical company. The Company develops prescription & over-the-counter drugs and diagnostics.

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Shionogi & Co (4507 JP)

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