Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>Back on the 10 February 2021, private hospitals and medical centers operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-frontier-health-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28429:1" rel="noopener">New Frontier Corporation (NFH US)</a> made an <a href="https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001737422/16f0d15b-2a3a-4ad0-9ad3-85d84f2c7485.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> it had received a preliminary non-proposal binding letter from a buyer-group, including President Carl Wu, Carnival Investments, Vivo Capital Fund IX, Max Rising International Ltd (a company affiliated with Carl Wu) - among others.</p>
<p>The group offered to acquire shares of New Frontier for $12 in cash, a 27.9% premium to last close.</p>
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<p>New Frontier has now entered into a <a href="https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001737422/4394dbb2-ca20-48cd-9bf2-2c1f323694a6.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">definitive merger agreement</a>, also at US$12/share.</p>
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<p>The merger is conditional on an affirmative vote from shareholders representing at least two-thirds of the shares out, and that the aggregate quantity of dissenting shares shall be less than 10% of shares out.</p>
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<p>The announcement is silent on the buyer consortium's % holding, but I estimate it to be at least 37%.</p>
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<p>This looks pretty clean. Possible completion late 4Q21.</p>
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<p>More below the fold.</p>
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Back on the 10 February 2021, private hospitals and medical centers operator New Frontier Corporation (NFH US) made an announcement it had received a preliminary non-proposal binding letter from a buyer-group, including President Carl Wu, Carnival Investments, Vivo Capital Fund IX, Max Rising International Ltd (a company affiliated with Carl Wu) - among others.
The group offered to acquire shares of New Frontier for $12 in cash, a 27.9% premium to last close.

New Frontier has now entered into a definitive merger agreement, also at US$12/share.


The merger is conditional on an affirmative vote from shareholders representing at least two-thirds of the shares out, and that the aggregate quantity of dissenting shares shall be less than 10% of shares out.


The announcement is silent on the buyer consortium's % holding, but I estimate it to be at least 37%.


This looks pretty clean. Possible completion late 4Q21.


More below the fold.


New Frontier (NYSE: NFH): Healthcare Homecoming

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p><br/> In this month’s "In-Focus" section, we discuss Chinese developers’ urban redevelopment businesses, including local governments' role in urban renewal projects and the various redevelopment models, as well as the impact of such projects on companies' financials. We also give an overview of recent bond defaults.<br/><br/> The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the "In-Focus" section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.<br/></p>

  In this month’s "In-Focus" section, we discuss Chinese developers’ urban redevelopment businesses, including local governments' role in urban renewal projects and the various redevelopment models, as well as the impact of such projects on companies' financials. We also give an overview of recent bond defaults.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the "In-Focus" section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Chinese Developers’ Urban Redevelopment Businesses - Lucror Analytics

<p><br/> The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of July includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.<br/></p>

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of July includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - July 2021 - Lucror Analytics

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28812:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto Inc. (LI US)</a> has got approval from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> for a dual primary listing. Media reports indicate that the company could raise between US$1bn-2bn in the offering. Based on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868 HK)</a> timeline, Li Auto could list around 6-9 August.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29217:1" rel="noopener">Xpeng (XPEV US)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868 HK)</a> raised US$1.8bn via a dual primary listing earlier this month and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28812:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto Inc. (LI US)</a> is following closely behind. Maybe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (NIO US)</a> comes next.</p><p>We expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28812:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto Inc. (LI US)</a> to get Fast Entry to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) though, as a WVR security, the stock will only be eligible for Stock Connect once it has completed 6 months of listing plus 20 trading days.</p><p>Li Auto could also be included in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> at the December review. This will lead to a further drop in the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures since we do not expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28812:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto Inc. (LI US)</a> to pay dividends in the near future, while the potential deletion is a higher dividend yielding stock.</p>

Li Auto Inc. (LI US) has got approval from the HKEX (388 HK) for a dual primary listing. Media reports indicate that the company could raise between US$1bn-2bn in the offering. Based on the XPeng (9868 HK) timeline, Li Auto could list around 6-9 August.Xpeng (XPEV US) / XPeng (9868 HK) raised US$1.8bn via a dual primary listing earlier this month and Li Auto Inc. (LI US) is following closely behind. Maybe NIO Inc (NIO US) comes next.We expect Li Auto Inc. (LI US) to get Fast Entry to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) though, as a WVR security, the stock will only be eligible for Stock Connect once it has completed 6 months of listing plus 20 trading days.Li Auto could also be included in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the December review. This will lead to a further drop in the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures since we do not expect Li Auto Inc. (LI US) to pay dividends in the near future, while the potential deletion is a higher dividend yielding stock.

Li Auto (LI US) Dual Primary Listing: HSCI Fast Entry; HSCEI Dec Inclusion & Div Futures Lower

<p><br/> We view Shimao Group as "Low Risk" on the LARA scale. Our view considers its good brand value and high exposure to Tier 1 and 2 cities, especially in the affluent Yangtze River Delta and Greater Bay Area. The company has demonstrated a track record of prudent financial management, with moderate but stable leverage over the years. In our view, Shimao's credit profile is among the strongest for Chinese developers under our coverage. In addition, the company has strong access to capital, as seen from its diversified funding sources and competitive borrowing costs. It also has moderately low exposure to JVs compared to peers, which improves transparency.<br/><br/> We view positively the listing of subsidiaries Shanghai Shimao and Shimao Services on the SSE and HKEX, respectively. The multiple listings improve the group's overall access to capital markets, albeit there is a degree of cash leakage to minority shareholders.<br/><br/> Our fundamental Credit Bias is "Stable", reflecting the steady growth in Shimao's contracted sales and revenue. The company has met all of the regulator’s Three Red Lines requirements.  <br/><br/> We view Shimao as "Weak" on the LAGA scale, primarily due to the control of Chairman/CEO Hui Wing Mau, who has a 65% stake in the company. His son, Jason Hui, is Vice-Chairman/ED of Shimao Group and Chairman/ED of Shimao Services, while his daughter, Carol Hui, is Vice-Chairman of Shanghai Shimao (a 64%-owned subsidiary listed on the Shanghai exchange). Only three of the eight Board members are independent. We view negatively that all three INEDs have been in their positions for more than 15 years and sit on multiple other Boards.<br/></p>

  We view Shimao Group as "Low Risk" on the LARA scale. Our view considers its good brand value and high exposure to Tier 1 and 2 cities, especially in the affluent Yangtze River Delta and Greater Bay Area. The company has demonstrated a track record of prudent financial management, with moderate but stable leverage over the years. In our view, Shimao's credit profile is among the strongest for Chinese developers under our coverage. In addition, the company has strong access to capital, as seen from its diversified funding sources and competitive borrowing costs. It also has moderately low exposure to JVs compared to peers, which improves transparency.   We view positively the listing of subsidiaries Shanghai Shimao and Shimao Services on the SSE and HKEX, respectively. The multiple listings improve the group's overall access to capital markets, albeit there is a degree of cash leakage to minority shareholders.   Our fundamental Credit Bias is "Stable", reflecting the steady growth in Shimao's contracted sales and revenue. The company has met all of the regulator’s Three Red Lines requirements.     We view Shimao as "Weak" on the LAGA scale, primarily due to the control of Chairman/CEO Hui Wing Mau, who has a 65% stake in the company. His son, Jason Hui, is Vice-Chairman/ED of Shimao Group and Chairman/ED of Shimao Services, while his daughter, Carol Hui, is Vice-Chairman of Shanghai Shimao (a 64%-owned subsidiary listed on the Shanghai exchange). Only three of the eight Board members are independent. We view negatively that all three INEDs have been in their positions for more than 15 years and sit on multiple other Boards. 

Shimao Group - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics

Hong Kong

Shimao Property Holdings Limited develops real estate projects in China.

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Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK)

New Frontier (NYSE: NFH): Healthcare Homecoming

I see the gross/annualised spread at 7.4%/19.8%, assuming late December completion. This looks like a pretty clean deal for around five months of...

David Blennerhassett

Asia HY Monthly - Chinese Developers’ Urban Redevelopment Businesses - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s "In-Focus" section, we discuss Chinese developers’ urban redevelopment businesses, including local governments' role in urban...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Book - July 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of July includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

Li Auto (LI US) Dual Primary Listing: HSCI Fast Entry; HSCEI Dec Inclusion & Div Futures Lower

Li Auto is looking to dual-primary list in HK. The stock should get Fast Entry to the HSCI and join Southbound Stock Connect in Q1 2022. Li Auto...

Brian Freitas

Shimao Group - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics

We view Shimao Group as "Low Risk" on the LARA scale. Our view considers its good brand value and high exposure to Tier 1 and 2 cities,...

Lucror Analytics

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