Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

Mandarin Oriental International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong is - very gradually - rolling back Covid restrictions</li>
<li>That's a welcome relief for tourists, and for hospitality companies dependent on tourism. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)</strong></a> is trading cheap at 0.7x P/B against 1.8x on average (five years) pre-Covid.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong is - very gradually - rolling back Covid restrictions
That's a welcome relief for tourists, and for hospitality companies dependent on tourism. 

Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP) is trading cheap at 0.7x P/B against 1.8x on average (five years) pre-Covid.


Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Life Is Suite

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>It is difficult for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> to return to its peak and IPO share prices over the next two years. The buyback proposal represents a good exit opportunity.</li>
<li>Net profit is unlikely to go back to FY19 level even in FY26F. The derating of the Chinese equities and Fosun Group, as well as its high gearing, are barriers.</li>
<li>Its PER multiples have already aligned back to the sector average from the extremely depressed level previously. Relative to global names, it is now only at slight discounts.</li>
</ul>


It is difficult for Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) to return to its peak and IPO share prices over the next two years. The buyback proposal represents a good exit opportunity.
Net profit is unlikely to go back to FY19 level even in FY26F. The derating of the Chinese equities and Fosun Group, as well as its high gearing, are barriers.
Its PER multiples have already aligned back to the sector average from the extremely depressed level previously. Relative to global names, it is now only at slight discounts.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Various statistics suggested that China's tourism and hospitality industry has staged a significant recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with traffic surging high double-digit.</li>
<li>While consumers are more cautious about retail product spending, they are willing to spend more on traveling. Such a trend will continue to bode well for the sector.</li>
<li>We like OTAs including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> despite their YTD surge in share prices. Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a> stays as the top pick.</li>
</ul>


Various statistics suggested that China's tourism and hospitality industry has staged a significant recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with traffic surging high double-digit.
While consumers are more cautious about retail product spending, they are willing to spend more on traveling. Such a trend will continue to bode well for the sector.
We like OTAs including Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) and Trip.com (9961 HK) despite their YTD surge in share prices. Meanwhile, Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) stays as the top pick.


China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Roundup of a Solid CNY

<ul>
<li>Relaxation of China's local COVID-combating measures in last two weeks has induced expectations of HK-China border opening. This is speculated to come as early as 9 Jan 2023. </li>
<li>We identify <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel International Investment Hong Kong (308 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sa-sa-international-hldgs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20143:1" rel="noopener">Sa Sa International Hldgs (178 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shangri-la-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19690:1" rel="noopener">Shangri-La Asia (69 HK)</a> as interesting names to be benefited.</li>
<li>While all have rebounded sharply lately, they are still significantly off pre-pandemic peaks back in 2018. We also like the solid financial positions of CTII and Sa Sa.</li>
</ul>


Relaxation of China's local COVID-combating measures in last two weeks has induced expectations of HK-China border opening. This is speculated to come as early as 9 Jan 2023. 
We identify China Travel International Investment Hong Kong (308 HK), Sa Sa International Hldgs (178 HK) and Shangri-La Asia (69 HK) as interesting names to be benefited.
While all have rebounded sharply lately, they are still significantly off pre-pandemic peaks back in 2018. We also like the solid financial positions of CTII and Sa Sa.


HK-China Border Opening: Here Are Some Interesting Names

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a>’s IFA opines that the share buyback privatisation offer of HK$7.80 is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 4 March. </li>
<li>The key condition is the scheme be approved by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (rejection by &lt;10% of disinterested shareholders). No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake.</li>
<li>Despite disclosing a potential REIT listing, there are no signs of dissent. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread for a 26 March payment was 3.5%/30.2%.</li>
</ul>



Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)’s IFA opines that the share buyback privatisation offer of HK$7.80 is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 4 March. 
The key condition is the scheme be approved by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (rejection by &lt;10% of disinterested shareholders). No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake.
Despite disclosing a potential REIT listing, there are no signs of dissent. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread for a 26 March payment was 3.5%/30.2%.


Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Scheme Buyback a Done Deal with Vote on 4 March

Hong Kong

Shangri-La Asia Limited, through its subsidiaries, owns and operates hotels, and provides management and related services.  The Company also leases offices, commercial, residential and exhibition hall space.

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Shangri-La Asia (69 HK)

Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Life Is Suite

Mandarin Oriental is trading cheap at 0.7x P/B against 1.8x on average (5 years) pre-Covid. Business will continue to improve from here. The...

David Blennerhassett

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Giving In

Fosun Tourism faces challenges in returning to peak and IPO share prices, making the buyback proposal a good exit opportunity due to barriers like...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Roundup of a Solid CNY

China's tourism industry sees a strong recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with a high double-digit traffic surge. OTAs like Tongcheng and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK-China Border Opening: Here Are Some Interesting Names

We look into details of China Travel Intl, Sa Sa Intl and Shangri-La Asia which will potentially be benefited from impending HK-China border...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Scheme Buyback a Done Deal with Vote on 4 March

Despite disclosing a potential REIT listing, there are no signs of dissent. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread for a 26 March payment...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Life Is Suite

Mandarin Oriental is trading cheap at 0.7x P/B against 1.8x on average (5 years) pre-Covid. Business will continue to improve from here. The...

David Blennerhassett

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Giving In

​Fosun Tourism faces challenges in returning to peak and IPO share prices, making the buyback proposal a good exit opportunity due to barriers like...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Roundup of a Solid CNY

​China's tourism industry sees a strong recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with a high double-digit traffic surge. OTAs like Tongcheng and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK-China Border Opening: Here Are Some Interesting Names

We look into details of China Travel Intl, Sa Sa Intl and Shangri-La Asia which will potentially be benefited from impending HK-China border...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Scheme Buyback a Done Deal with Vote on 4 March

Despite disclosing a potential REIT listing, there are no signs of dissent. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread for a 26 March payment...

Arun George

Fosun Tourism faces challenges in returning to peak and IPO share prices, making the buyback proposal a good exit opportunity due to barriers like...

China's tourism industry sees a strong recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with a high double-digit traffic surge. OTAs like Tongcheng and...