Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 5 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50 Index</a> that will be implemented at the close on 9 June. The impact is pretty chunky on a few deletions.</li>
<li>Apart from the passive assets tracking the index, there are some liquid index futures and the impact on the stocks will be larger than just the headline numbers.</li>
<li>The adds underperformed the deletes in March and April but have come roaring back in May. Playing the trade via long/short pairs could provide better risk adjusted returns.</li>
</ul>


There are 5 changes for the SSE50 Index that will be implemented at the close on 9 June. The impact is pretty chunky on a few deletions.
Apart from the passive assets tracking the index, there are some liquid index futures and the impact on the stocks will be larger than just the headline numbers.
The adds underperformed the deletes in March and April but have come roaring back in May. Playing the trade via long/short pairs could provide better risk adjusted returns.


SSE50 Index Rebalance: Some Large Impact Changes

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35371:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (600941 CH)</a> listed on 5 January after raising CNY 56bn in its A-share IPO. The stock could get Fast Entry to the CSI300, SSE50 and SSE180 indices.</li>
<li>Stocks will be deleted from these indices to maintain the number of index constituents. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jonjee-high-tech-industrial-and-commercial-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14622:1" rel="noopener">Jonjee High-Tech</a> could be deleted from the CSI300 and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12908:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining</a> from the SSE50.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35371:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (600941 CH)</a> trades at a 41.7% premium to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a>, substantially lower than the 89% premium for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-telecom-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34045:1" rel="noopener">China Telecom (601728 CH)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-telecom-corp-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1015:1" rel="noopener">China Telecom (H) (728 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>



China Mobile (600941 CH) listed on 5 January after raising CNY 56bn in its A-share IPO. The stock could get Fast Entry to the CSI300, SSE50 and SSE180 indices.
Stocks will be deleted from these indices to maintain the number of index constituents. Jonjee High-Tech could be deleted from the CSI300 and Shandong Gold Mining from the SSE50.

China Mobile (600941 CH) trades at a 41.7% premium to China Mobile (941 HK), substantially lower than the 89% premium for China Telecom (601728 CH)/China Telecom (H) (728 HK). 


China Mobile (600941 CH): Potential Index Fast Entry

China Yangtze Power Co, Ltd. / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 5 changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX)</a> as a part of the December rebalance. One-way turnover is 6% and the one-way trade is CNY 3.3bn.</li>
<li>There is same way flow on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhangzhou-pientzehuang-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15709:1" rel="noopener">Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (600436 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-telecom-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34045:1" rel="noopener">China Telecom (601728 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanan-optoelectronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4436:1" rel="noopener">Sanan Optoelectronics Co (600703 CH)</a> around the time of the SSE50 inclusion.</li>
<li>With active futures contracts traded on the CFFEX, there will be cash and carry positions and the rebalancing could add to the impact on the inclusions and exclusions.</li>
</ul>


There are 5 changes to the SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX) as a part of the December rebalance. One-way turnover is 6% and the one-way trade is CNY 3.3bn.
There is same way flow on Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (600436 CH), China Telecom (601728 CH) and Sanan Optoelectronics Co (600703 CH) around the time of the SSE50 inclusion.
With active futures contracts traded on the CFFEX, there will be cash and carry positions and the rebalancing could add to the impact on the inclusions and exclusions.


SSE50 Index Rebalance: 5 Changes and Same Way Index Flow

Quantitative Analysis

The China equity index futures market has come a long way since index futures started to trade on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> in 2010. There have been booms and busts, volumes and open interest have soared and plummeted, rules have been relaxed and tightened and relaxed again, and the market continues to move forward.Currently, index futures trade on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a>, the CSI500 Index, and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX)</a>. There are no published statistics on the share of volume and open interest held by institutional and non-institutional investors, so we take a stab at trying to figure out broadly what it could be.Our analysis indicates that till mid 2015, most of the volume traded was driven by retail investors and they held a lions share of open interest too. Post the market crash and subsequent resurgence, retail investors share of volume traded and open interest has likely dropped substantially due to the market entry of more institutional investors, proprietary trading shops, and quant traders. Strategies employed by non-institutional investors mainly run counter to the retail flow and that has dampened the futures basis in the recent past.

The China equity index futures market has come a long way since index futures started to trade on the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) in 2010. There have been booms and busts, volumes and open interest have soared and plummeted, rules have been relaxed and tightened and relaxed again, and the market continues to move forward.Currently, index futures trade on the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX), the CSI500 Index, and the SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX). There are no published statistics on the share of volume and open interest held by institutional and non-institutional investors, so we take a stab at trying to figure out broadly what it could be.Our analysis indicates that till mid 2015, most of the volume traded was driven by retail investors and they held a lions share of open interest too. Post the market crash and subsequent resurgence, retail investors share of volume traded and open interest has likely dropped substantially due to the market entry of more institutional investors, proprietary trading shops, and quant traders. Strategies employed by non-institutional investors mainly run counter to the retail flow and that has dampened the futures basis in the recent past.

China Equity Index Futures: Who Holds the Open Interest?

China

SSE 50 Index consists of 50 most representative stocks from Shanghai security market by scientific and objective method. The objective is to reflect the complete picture of those good quality large enterprises, which are most influential in Shanghai security market.

SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX)

SSE50 Index Rebalance: Some Large Impact Changes

There are 5 changes to the SSE50 Index in June that will have one-way turnover estimated at 3.95% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 3,187m....

Brian Freitas

China Mobile (600941 CH): Potential Index Fast Entry

China Mobile listed on the SSE on 5 Jan after raising CNY 56bn. Based on the index methodology, the stock should get Fast Entry to the CSI300,...

Brian Freitas

SSE50 Index Rebalance: 5 Changes and Same Way Index Flow

There are 5 changes to the SSE50 Index at the Dec rebalance and there are stocks that have over 1.5 days of ADV to trade. With CFFEX traded futures...

Brian Freitas

China Equity Index Futures: Who Holds the Open Interest?

We look at the change in the market landscape for the index futures in China and try to ascertain if retail investors still hold sway or if that...

Brian Freitas