Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Investors are overly pessimistic, but China may already be a contrarian ‘buy’ 
</li>
<li>Latest economic data show positive surprises. GDP momentum is rising but investor positioning data evidence another big cut in exposure to China</li>
<li>Monetary policy stable and supportive. No sign of credit bust, or boom. Great potential for policy ‘pivot’ later in 2022
</li>
</ul>


Investors are overly pessimistic, but China may already be a contrarian ‘buy’ 

Latest economic data show positive surprises. GDP momentum is rising but investor positioning data evidence another big cut in exposure to China
Monetary policy stable and supportive. No sign of credit bust, or boom. Great potential for policy ‘pivot’ later in 2022



Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In the absence of an outright LPR cut later this month, the latest RRR move's impact on the real economy may be rather modest. </li>
<li>Assuming CNY500bn of MLFs will be withdrawn in the coming months, the net injection this time around is CNY700bn, about 40% of an average month's new loans.</li>
<li>We would watch out for a potential bubble in the onshore credit market before incremental liquidity benefits the broader economy.</li>
</ul>


In the absence of an outright LPR cut later this month, the latest RRR move's impact on the real economy may be rather modest. 
Assuming CNY500bn of MLFs will be withdrawn in the coming months, the net injection this time around is CNY700bn, about 40% of an average month's new loans.
We would watch out for a potential bubble in the onshore credit market before incremental liquidity benefits the broader economy.


China Macro: RRR Cuts' Diminishing Impact

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>In the markets we follow, China, Gold and the JPY most impacted</li>
<li>Which ones should we fade and where has the trend changed?</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
In the markets we follow, China, Gold and the JPY most impacted
Which ones should we fade and where has the trend changed?


Overview #12 - Not Another Trump Trade!Time to Fade?

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>Trump 2.0 means reboot of aggressive tariff policy toward China</li><li>TSMC suspends shipments of more advanced chips to mainland clients, sources say</li><li>State-owned China COSCO Shipping Corp. Ltd. has opened a new sea-land route that reduces the time it takes to transport goods from China to Europe by one-fifth</li></ul>

Trump 2.0 means reboot of aggressive tariff policy toward ChinaTSMC suspends shipments of more advanced chips to mainland clients, sources sayState-owned China COSCO Shipping Corp. Ltd. has opened a new sea-land route that reduces the time it takes to transport goods from China to Europe by one-fifth

CX Daily: Trump 2.0 Means Reboot of Aggressive Tariff Policy Toward China 

<ul><li>Trump / Analysis: How Trump’s return could impact China’s economy and tech</li><li>IT / In Depth: How legacy technology broke China’s stock market</li><li>Rail / Ukraine war sends Chinese goods on circuitous route to Europe</li></ul>

Trump / Analysis: How Trump’s return could impact China’s economy and techIT / In Depth: How legacy technology broke China’s stock marketRail / Ukraine war sends Chinese goods on circuitous route to Europe

CX Daily: How Trump’s Return Could Impact China’s Economy and Tech 

China

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index tracks the daily price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The index was developed on December 19, 1990 with a base value of 100. 

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Is It Time To Buy China?

Media pessimism about China has become exaggerated. The economy is not strong but latest data show acceleration, and the monetary backdrop is...

Michael J. Howell

China Macro: RRR Cuts' Diminishing Impact

In the absence of an LPR cut, the impact of the latest RRR move may be limited. We estimate that net of MLF maturities, the liquidity boost is...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Overview #12 - Not Another Trump Trade!Time to Fade?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the some post election trends in China, Japan and Precious...

Rikki Malik

CX Daily: Trump 2.0 Means Reboot of Aggressive Tariff Policy Toward China

As the 78-year-old Republican prepares to lead a deeply divided nation, all eyes are on the critical decisions shaping his second-term...

Caixin Global

CX Daily: How Trump’s Return Could Impact China’s Economy and Tech

Trump / Analysis: How Trump’s return could impact China’s economy and tech “The U. S. economic policy toward China may become more hostile with...

Caixin Global