Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In the absence of an outright LPR cut later this month, the latest RRR move's impact on the real economy may be rather modest. </li>
<li>Assuming CNY500bn of MLFs will be withdrawn in the coming months, the net injection this time around is CNY700bn, about 40% of an average month's new loans.</li>
<li>We would watch out for a potential bubble in the onshore credit market before incremental liquidity benefits the broader economy.</li>
</ul>


In the absence of an outright LPR cut later this month, the latest RRR move's impact on the real economy may be rather modest. 
Assuming CNY500bn of MLFs will be withdrawn in the coming months, the net injection this time around is CNY700bn, about 40% of an average month's new loans.
We would watch out for a potential bubble in the onshore credit market before incremental liquidity benefits the broader economy.


China Macro: RRR Cuts' Diminishing Impact

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The latest policy proposal is one step closer but still incremental</li>
<li>Incremental steps taken so far have been ineffective in the short-term</li>
<li>The ideal solution would be full intervention by the Central Government</li>
</ul>


The latest policy proposal is one step closer but still incremental
Incremental steps taken so far have been ineffective in the short-term
The ideal solution would be full intervention by the Central Government


China Is One Step Closer to Its ‘Event Horizon” in the Property Market

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway, Odd Lots

Odd Lots

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

<ul><li>Odd Lots podcast discusses trade tensions between the US and China, drawing parallels to past trade conflicts with Japan</li><li>Pop culture references and historical anecdotes provide context for current trade disputes</li><li>Guest Stephen Roach, a senior fellow at Yale Law School and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, offers insights on the errors of current approach to China</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Odd Lots podcast discusses trade tensions between the US and China, drawing parallels to past trade conflicts with JapanPop culture references and historical anecdotes provide context for current trade disputesGuest Stephen Roach, a senior fellow at Yale Law School and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, offers insights on the errors of current approach to ChinaThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Stephen Roach Warns of Disaster From Our 'Sinophobic' China Policy

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China saw 3.9 trillion yuan shift from cash to bonds and wealth products in April 2024.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> has fully recovered the $30 billion stock loss from the Hindenburg Report.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)</a> raised $4.5 billion via convertible bonds for buybacks and AI investments.</li>
</ul>


China saw 3.9 trillion yuan shift from cash to bonds and wealth products in April 2024.

Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) has fully recovered the $30 billion stock loss from the Hindenburg Report.

Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US) raised $4.5 billion via convertible bonds for buybacks and AI investments.


#4Business Buzz: Chinese Bond, Recovery in Adani, Alibaba & AI, Jio's Deal of 36000Cr

<ul>
<li>China is following the Fed's playbook of keeping market momentum going with good news and actions</li>
<li>The HK dividend scheme is a prime example of that</li>
<li>The latest proposal for unsold properties will remove a major barrier to a bottom in the property market.</li>
</ul>


China is following the Fed's playbook of keeping market momentum going with good news and actions
The HK dividend scheme is a prime example of that
The latest proposal for unsold properties will remove a major barrier to a bottom in the property market.


China Takes It up Another Notch-Property Proposals Change the Game

China

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index tracks the daily price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The index was developed on December 19, 1990 with a base value of 100. 

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

China Macro: RRR Cuts' Diminishing Impact

In the absence of an LPR cut, the impact of the latest RRR move may be limited. We estimate that net of MLF maturities, the liquidity boost is...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China Is One Step Closer to Its ‘Event Horizon” in the Property Market

Recent policy changes are positive but lack resolution on property issues, with incremental steps proving ineffective in the short-term.

Rikki Malik

Stephen Roach Warns of Disaster From Our 'Sinophobic' China Policy

The Odd Lots podcast examines US trade tensions with China by comparing them to past trade tensions with Japan in the 1980s, discussing the...

Odd Lots

#4Business Buzz: Chinese Bond, Recovery in Adani, Alibaba & AI, Jio's Deal of 36000Cr

China shifts trillions from cash to bonds, Adani Enterprises recovers stock loss, Alibaba raises billions for buybacks and AI investments.

Nimish Maheshwari

China Takes It up Another Notch-Property Proposals Change the Game

Unsold property proposals are BIG news for China markets. China is emulating the Fed's strategy of boosting market confidence with positive news...

Rikki Malik

China Macro: RRR Cuts' Diminishing Impact

In the absence of an LPR cut, the impact of the latest RRR move may be limited. We estimate that net of MLF maturities, the liquidity boost is...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China Is One Step Closer to Its ‘Event Horizon” in the Property Market

​Recent policy changes are positive but lack resolution on property issues, with incremental steps proving ineffective in the short-term.

Rikki Malik

Stephen Roach Warns of Disaster From Our 'Sinophobic' China Policy

The Odd Lots podcast examines US trade tensions with China by comparing them to past trade tensions with Japan in the 1980s, discussing the...

Odd Lots

#4Business Buzz: Chinese Bond, Recovery in Adani, Alibaba & AI, Jio's Deal of 36000Cr

​China shifts trillions from cash to bonds, Adani Enterprises recovers stock loss, Alibaba raises billions for buybacks and AI investments.

Nimish Maheshwari

China Takes It up Another Notch-Property Proposals Change the Game

Unsold property proposals are BIG news for China markets. ​China is emulating the Fed's strategy of boosting market confidence with positive news...

Rikki Malik

Recent policy changes are positive but lack resolution on property issues, with incremental steps proving ineffective in the short-term.

China shifts trillions from cash to bonds, Adani Enterprises recovers stock loss, Alibaba raises billions for buybacks and AI investments.

Unsold property proposals are BIG news for China markets. China is emulating the Fed's strategy of boosting market confidence with positive news...