Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Qingming holiday sending surpasses  2019 levels on an absolute and per capita basis</li>
<li>A further relaxation of housing measures spurs increased mortgage demand</li>
<li>Two steps forward, one step back -typical signs of a bottoming-out economy.</li>
</ul>


Qingming holiday sending surpasses  2019 levels on an absolute and per capita basis
A further relaxation of housing measures spurs increased mortgage demand
Two steps forward, one step back -typical signs of a bottoming-out economy.


Chinese Data Continues to Improve Incrementally

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China’s economic data is continuing to surprise on the upside.</li>
<li>Investors are starting to take notice and good news is not being ignored – a sign of a change in sentiment.</li>
<li>Economically sensitive and commodity-related sectors a good hunting ground for absolute returns</li>
</ul>


China’s economic data is continuing to surprise on the upside.
Investors are starting to take notice and good news is not being ignored – a sign of a change in sentiment.
Economically sensitive and commodity-related sectors a good hunting ground for absolute returns


What's up with Hong Kong? Bull Market Dude!

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
 China’s economy is not anything like as ‘bad’ as being reported by the popular media. Yet, there are deep structural challenges which will hinder future economic growth</li>
<li>Monetary policy makers have recently been constrained by the weak Yuan (CNY)
</li>
<li>
 Liquidity is now being re-injected aggressively. More liquidity boosts economic activity. The cost could be a CNY of RMB8/ US$</li>
</ul>



 China’s economy is not anything like as ‘bad’ as being reported by the popular media. Yet, there are deep structural challenges which will hinder future economic growth
Monetary policy makers have recently been constrained by the weak Yuan (CNY)


 Liquidity is now being re-injected aggressively. More liquidity boosts economic activity. The cost could be a CNY of RMB8/ US$


China Is Adding to World Liquidity, But At A Cost…

<ul>
<li>
 EM Liquidity remains low but again pushed higher in November and looks set to rebound strongly in 2023, helped easier Chinese monetary conditions 
</li>
<li>
 World economy skidding badly and probably already in recession. EM investor positioning data already discounts much of this drop. Capital outflows becoming far less negative.</li>
<li>
 Weaker US dollar likely to add support to EM, gold and commodities in 2023. Many commodity-rich EMs look attractive.</li>
</ul>



 EM Liquidity remains low but again pushed higher in November and looks set to rebound strongly in 2023, helped easier Chinese monetary conditions 


 World economy skidding badly and probably already in recession. EM investor positioning data already discounts much of this drop. Capital outflows becoming far less negative.

 Weaker US dollar likely to add support to EM, gold and commodities in 2023. Many commodity-rich EMs look attractive.


Emerging Markets Could Outperform in 2023?

<ul>
<li>Investors are overly pessimistic, but China may already be a contrarian ‘buy’ 
</li>
<li>Latest economic data show positive surprises. GDP momentum is rising but investor positioning data evidence another big cut in exposure to China</li>
<li>Monetary policy stable and supportive. No sign of credit bust, or boom. Great potential for policy ‘pivot’ later in 2022
</li>
</ul>


Investors are overly pessimistic, but China may already be a contrarian ‘buy’ 

Latest economic data show positive surprises. GDP momentum is rising but investor positioning data evidence another big cut in exposure to China
Monetary policy stable and supportive. No sign of credit bust, or boom. Great potential for policy ‘pivot’ later in 2022



China

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index tracks the daily price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The index was developed on December 19, 1990 with a base value of 100. 

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Chinese Data Continues to Improve Incrementally

Chinese consumer confidence rising as Qingming holiday spending surpasses 2019 levels, and increased mortgage demand seen due to housing measures...

Rikki Malik

What's up with Hong Kong? Bull Market Dude!

China's stronger economic data is catching investors' attention, signalling a shift in sentiment and highlighting opportunities in economically...

Rikki Malik

China Is Adding to World Liquidity, But At A Cost…

Chinese policy makers have recently been constrained by the weak Yuan. Liquidity is now being re-injected aggressively. More liquidity boosts...

Michael J. Howell

Emerging Markets Could Outperform in 2023?

EM Liquidity looks set to rebound strongly in 2023, helped easier Chinese monetary conditions Weaker US dollar likely to add support to EM, gold...

Michael J. Howell

Is It Time To Buy China?

Media pessimism about China has become exaggerated. The economy is not strong but latest data show acceleration, and the monetary backdrop is...

Michael J. Howell

Chinese Data Continues to Improve Incrementally

Chinese consumer confidence rising as ​Qingming holiday spending surpasses 2019 levels, and increased mortgage demand seen due to housing measures...

Rikki Malik

What's up with Hong Kong? Bull Market Dude!

​China's stronger economic data is catching investors' attention, signalling a shift in sentiment and highlighting opportunities in economically...

Rikki Malik

China Is Adding to World Liquidity, But At A Cost…

Chinese policy makers have recently been constrained by the weak Yuan. Liquidity is now being re-injected aggressively. More liquidity boosts...

Michael J. Howell

Emerging Markets Could Outperform in 2023?

EM Liquidity looks set to rebound strongly in 2023, helped easier Chinese monetary conditions Weaker US dollar likely to add support to EM, gold...

Michael J. Howell

Is It Time To Buy China?

Media pessimism about China has become exaggerated. The economy is not strong but latest data show acceleration, and the monetary backdrop is...

Michael J. Howell

Chinese consumer confidence rising as Qingming holiday spending surpasses 2019 levels, and increased mortgage demand seen due to housing measures...

China's stronger economic data is catching investors' attention, signalling a shift in sentiment and highlighting opportunities in economically...