Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We expect to see a strong start to the week for China financials names, with sentiments buoyed by upbeat consumer spending data over the new year holiday.</li>
<li>Early signs point to relatively loose conditions in the interbank market as trading resumes across the board on Monday. The central bank's easing bias will likely continue.</li>
<li>We see more momentum for the sector ahead of Q4 earnings (brokers &gt; insurers &gt; banks). Stock selection will become more important thereafter.</li>
</ul>


We expect to see a strong start to the week for China financials names, with sentiments buoyed by upbeat consumer spending data over the new year holiday.
Early signs point to relatively loose conditions in the interbank market as trading resumes across the board on Monday. The central bank's easing bias will likely continue.
We see more momentum for the sector ahead of Q4 earnings (brokers &gt; insurers &gt; banks). Stock selection will become more important thereafter.


China Financials Weekly: Jan 30 | A Bubbly Opening

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Laos' public debt has likely exceeded USD20 billion, or 120% of its GDP. China's share could be as high as USD12.3 billion, making it the largest creditor nation.</li>
<li>If the debt concession Beijing offered to Sri Lanka this week is any guide, Laos could still avert a full-blown sovereign default.</li>
<li>In return, Vientiane may have to grant its northern neighbor additional tax exemptions and greater access to strategic industries. This may all be part of the BRI playbook.</li>
</ul>


Laos' public debt has likely exceeded USD20 billion, or 120% of its GDP. China's share could be as high as USD12.3 billion, making it the largest creditor nation.
If the debt concession Beijing offered to Sri Lanka this week is any guide, Laos could still avert a full-blown sovereign default.
In return, Vientiane may have to grant its northern neighbor additional tax exemptions and greater access to strategic industries. This may all be part of the BRI playbook.


China's BRI Ambition: Could Laos Be the Next One to Fall?

<ul>
<li>The recent rollout of a tax-deferred individual pension scheme marks a pivotal moment in the country's preparation for seismic shifts in its demographics.</li>
<li>The transition towards Pillar 3 of the retirement system has important implications for global asset allocators' long-term China investment thesis.</li>
<li>It's still early days, but there are ways to participate in the growth of private pensions. We look at the scale of the opportunities available and the potential beneficiaries.</li>
</ul>


The recent rollout of a tax-deferred individual pension scheme marks a pivotal moment in the country's preparation for seismic shifts in its demographics.
The transition towards Pillar 3 of the retirement system has important implications for global asset allocators' long-term China investment thesis.
It's still early days, but there are ways to participate in the growth of private pensions. We look at the scale of the opportunities available and the potential beneficiaries.


China's Fledgling Pensions Market: Are You Positioned to Cash In?

<ul>
<li>China's loan prime rates have held steady for a fifth month, with 1Y and 5Y benchmarks at 3.65% and 4.30%, respectively.</li>
<li>We expect to see a 15bp cut to the 5Y LPR as early as Feb. 20, in view of extremely weak domestic demand.</li>
<li>Even that may not be enough. Infrastructure spending will have to carry the load, fueled by a surge in local government bond issuance.</li>
</ul>


China's loan prime rates have held steady for a fifth month, with 1Y and 5Y benchmarks at 3.65% and 4.30%, respectively.
We expect to see a 15bp cut to the 5Y LPR as early as Feb. 20, in view of extremely weak domestic demand.
Even that may not be enough. Infrastructure spending will have to carry the load, fueled by a surge in local government bond issuance.


China Macro: Loan Prime Rates Unchanged in Jan; Easing Bias Remains

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Chinese net capital outflows are again picking up to a US$600 billion annual clip. Chinese Yuan has also been under-pressure from the strong US dollar</li>
<li>People’s Bank (PBoC) forced to tighten domestic monetary conditions to help Yuan, despite COVID-19 lockdowns</li>
<li>Tighter Chinese Liquidity hurts World economy, reinforcing recession threat and hurting commodity markets</li>
</ul>


Chinese net capital outflows are again picking up to a US$600 billion annual clip. Chinese Yuan has also been under-pressure from the strong US dollar
People’s Bank (PBoC) forced to tighten domestic monetary conditions to help Yuan, despite COVID-19 lockdowns
Tighter Chinese Liquidity hurts World economy, reinforcing recession threat and hurting commodity markets


China

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index tracks the daily price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The index was developed on December 19, 1990 with a base value of 100. 

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

China Financials Weekly: Jan 30 | A Bubbly Opening

We expect a strong start to the week for the China financials space, after a new year holiday that confirms investors' hopes for a speedy recovery...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China's BRI Ambition: Could Laos Be the Next One to Fall?

Laos' spiraling debt crisis has once again put China's BRI program under public scrutiny. The outlook for the landlocked nation is looking grimmer...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China's Fledgling Pensions Market: Are You Positioned to Cash In?

China's aging population has captured investors' attention of late. What opportunities will shifting demographics bring to the fledgling private...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China Macro: Loan Prime Rates Unchanged in Jan; Easing Bias Remains

China's LPRs have held steady, but we believe a cut to the mortgage benchmark is imminent. A recovery in home prices may prove elusive. Debt-fueled...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China – Policy Switches-Off

We hear the tireless refrain that China is set to ease her fiscal and monetary policies. True, the COVID-19 lockdowns provide a decent excuse, but...

Michael J. Howell