Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The city of Nanjing has been in the headlines for its strong house price growth and volume growth over the past year, as well as record land prices paid by developers. Price increases in Nanjing met with policy response earlier in March and April, with the imposition of limits on price growth, then tighter credit restrictions, and a few days ago newly announced home purchase restrictions. But what do the property market fundamentals look like in Nanjing? In this note, we look at new home sales prices, volumes, inventory, land sales and new starts in Nanjing and its main Districts, to help explain what has driven such price escalation and what we should expect to see next.

The city of Nanjing has been in the headlines for its strong house price growth and volume growth over the past year, as well as record land prices paid by developers. Price increases in Nanjing met with policy response earlier in March and April, with the imposition of limits on price growth, then tighter credit restrictions, and a few days ago newly announced home purchase restrictions. But what do the property market fundamentals look like in Nanjing? In this note, we look at new home sales prices, volumes, inventory, land sales and new starts in Nanjing and its main Districts, to help explain what has driven such price escalation and what we should expect to see next. 

In our second annual special report on China Districts, we present Districts that stand out on our multiple-criteria rankings for performance on growth in average house prices and GFA volumes, with latest data for July 2016, focused on year-to-date year-on-year changes. Performance within a city can vary widely across different districts, especially that certain types of districts like Economic Development Zones, CBDs or ‘New Districts’ may carry more similarities to each other across cities than with other districts in their cities.We explore the housing markets dynamics on a comparable basis at the district level across 220 districts in 23 major cities that are of greatest interest to investors.We recognize that a real measure of opportunity needs to account for the availability and price of land use rights, and ability to execute in specific districts, and we treat the specific districts pointers in this report as the initial ‘trigger points’, certainly requiring much more detailed assessment.You may consider several questions in relation to your current or planned project exposure:<ul><li>Are your projects in any of the top districts?</li><li>Where does your current district exposure sit on these rankings?</li><li>For current projects pipeline, are these projects in districts with good performance?</li><li>For listed developers – who has significant active selling projects in those districts?</li></ul>

In our second annual special report on China Districts, we present Districts that stand out on our multiple-criteria rankings for performance on growth in average house prices and GFA volumes, with latest data for July 2016, focused on year-to-date year-on-year changes. Performance within a city can vary widely across different districts, especially that certain types of districts like Economic Development Zones, CBDs or ‘New Districts’ may carry more similarities to each other across cities than with other districts in their cities.We explore the housing markets dynamics on a comparable basis at the district level across 220 districts in 23 major cities that are of greatest interest to investors.We recognize that a real measure of opportunity needs to account for the availability and price of land use rights, and ability to execute in specific districts, and we treat the specific districts pointers in this report as the initial ‘trigger points’, certainly requiring much more detailed assessment.You may consider several questions in relation to your current or planned project exposure:Are your projects in any of the top districts?Where does your current district exposure sit on these rankings?For current projects pipeline, are these projects in districts with good performance?For listed developers – who has significant active selling projects in those districts?

China Property: 220 Districts - Which Are The Best Performers?

Cities that stand out on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-house-prices-keep-rising-13-8-y-y-in-august-vs-12-4-in-july-soufun-100-cities-index" target="_blank">strong house price growth</a> (for new home sales) across China typically vary from those that record strongest GFA (gross floor area) sales volumes growth. In the other notes we have addressed the price growth dynamics and here we look at the pure GFA volume growth combining 12-month and 3-month period volume growth, drawing on the underlying data from SouFun-CREIS and the latest complete July data.Among major cities, Qingdao, Jinan, Zhengzhou, Hohhot, Taiyuan, Harbin and…

Cities that stand out on strong house price growth (for new home sales) across China typically vary from those that record strongest GFA (gross floor area) sales volumes growth. In the other notes we have addressed the price growth dynamics and here we look at the pure GFA volume growth combining 12-month and 3-month period volume growth, drawing on the underlying data from SouFun-CREIS and the latest complete July data.Among major cities, Qingdao, Jinan, Zhengzhou, Hohhot, Taiyuan, Harbin and…

China Property: Where The Strong Volumes Are

China

Shanghai Industrial Development Co., Ltd. develops, sells, and leases real estate properties.

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Shanghai Industrial Devel A (600748 CH)

China Property: The Case of Nanjing

The city of Nanjing has been in the headlines for its strong house price growth and volume growth over the past year, as well as record land prices...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: 220 Districts - Which Are The Best Performers?

In our second annual special report on China Districts, we present Districts that stand out on our multiple-criteria rankings for performance on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: Where The Strong Volumes Are

Cities that stand out on strong house price growth (for new home sales) across China typically vary from those that record strongest GFA (gross...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)