Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With a few weeks to the end of the review period, we see 30 potential changes (the maximum allowed at a review) to the index in June.</li>
<li>Most of the changes are high probability ones. We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.48% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.86bn.</li>
<li>The potential inclusions have outperformed the potential deletions over the last couple of months. There could be more to go here as positions are built in the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


With a few weeks to the end of the review period, we see 30 potential changes (the maximum allowed at a review) to the index in June.
Most of the changes are high probability ones. We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.48% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.86bn.
The potential inclusions have outperformed the potential deletions over the last couple of months. There could be more to go here as positions are built in the next few weeks.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Maxing Out the 30 Changes

<ul>
<li>Nearly midway through the review period for the June rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a>, we see 29 potential changes to the index.</li>
<li>There are a lot of high and medium probability changes that could result in a one-way turnover of 4.2% and a one-way trade of CNY 10.17bn at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>The potential inclusions have underperformed the potential deletions by c.15% over the last month and this provides a good entry point into a long short/trade.</li>
</ul>


Nearly midway through the review period for the June rebalance of the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX), we see 29 potential changes to the index.
There are a lot of high and medium probability changes that could result in a one-way turnover of 4.2% and a one-way trade of CNY 10.17bn at the June rebalance.
The potential inclusions have underperformed the potential deletions by c.15% over the last month and this provides a good entry point into a long short/trade.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview (June 2022): Changes Near the Midway Mark

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 28 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> at the upcoming rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 10 December.</li>
<li>The inclusion of ChiNext stocks with 1 year of listing history (down from 3 years) and the inclusion of other large stocks results in a one-way turnover greater than 10%.</li>
<li>There are 10 trading days to implementation and we expect the inclusions to outperform the market. A long inclusion basket can be hedged with CSI300 index futures.</li>
</ul>


There are 28 changes for the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) at the upcoming rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 10 December.
The inclusion of ChiNext stocks with 1 year of listing history (down from 3 years) and the inclusion of other large stocks results in a one-way turnover greater than 10%.
There are 10 trading days to implementation and we expect the inclusions to outperform the market. A long inclusion basket can be hedged with CSI300 index futures.


CSI300 Index Rebalance: Methodology Tweak Results in More Changes & Larger Turnover

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfang-electric-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1251:1" rel="noopener">Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)</a> (DEC) achieved an encouraging 3Q21 with reported net profit increased 33.5% YoY and new orders signed reached Rmb12.6bn for 3Q21 and Rmb47bn for 9M21. Although recurring profit grew a slower 12.9%, it is still decent amid higher input costs. In particular, we are pleased to see its gross margin for 3Q21 expanded by 1.6pp YoY. Its solid financial position with 51% of share price being net cash is an added strength. We believe there is room for the Street to upgrade FY21 forecasts, as DEC's 9M21 result has already reached 79% of full-year consensus estimate. Earnings outlook appears to be secured as we estimate DEC's backlog enough to cover FY20 revenue at 2.63x. DEC's long-term exposure to pumped storage and hydrogen economy of China is very appealing and is yet to be captured in the earnings over the next two years. Even so, its valuations for FY21 and FY22 are still inexpensive, in our view.

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) (DEC) achieved an encouraging 3Q21 with reported net profit increased 33.5% YoY and new orders signed reached Rmb12.6bn for 3Q21 and Rmb47bn for 9M21. Although recurring profit grew a slower 12.9%, it is still decent amid higher input costs. In particular, we are pleased to see its gross margin for 3Q21 expanded by 1.6pp YoY. Its solid financial position with 51% of share price being net cash is an added strength. We believe there is room for the Street to upgrade FY21 forecasts, as DEC's 9M21 result has already reached 79% of full-year consensus estimate. Earnings outlook appears to be secured as we estimate DEC's backlog enough to cover FY20 revenue at 2.63x. DEC's long-term exposure to pumped storage and hydrogen economy of China is very appealing and is yet to be captured in the earnings over the next two years. Even so, its valuations for FY21 and FY22 are still inexpensive, in our view. 

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Healthy 3Q21 Result with Positive Order Flow

While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfang-electric-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1251:1" rel="noopener">Dongfang Electric Corporation (1072 HK)</a> (DEC) has witnessed excellent share price performance into 2H21, we believe there is still more room for the stock to go. Earnings revision momentum is positive, with FY21-22 forecasts revised up by 10-11% in the last month, but such magnitudes are likely to have still under-estimated DEC's earnings. The fact that its new orders for 1H21 reached a record high and grew by 32.9% adds comfort to our investment thesis. We estimate DEC's backlog at around Rmb96bn now, good enough to cover 2.6x its annual revenue, and this was up from 2.3x at end-FY20. New order momentum in 3Q21 looks sustaining strength, and with PER valuation at 15x for FY21 and 13.5x for FY22, it does not look demanding given its technical strengths and encouraging outlook. Longer-term, besides the benefits from hydrogen and pumped storage, we see DEC well positioned to gain from China's vigorous attitude towards nuclear generation as well.

While Dongfang Electric Corporation (1072 HK) (DEC) has witnessed excellent share price performance into 2H21, we believe there is still more room for the stock to go. Earnings revision momentum is positive, with FY21-22 forecasts revised up by 10-11% in the last month, but such magnitudes are likely to have still under-estimated DEC's earnings. The fact that its new orders for 1H21 reached a record high and grew by 32.9% adds comfort to our investment thesis. We estimate DEC's backlog at around Rmb96bn now, good enough to cover 2.6x its annual revenue, and this was up from 2.3x at end-FY20. New order momentum in 3Q21 looks sustaining strength, and with PER valuation at 15x for FY21 and 13.5x for FY22, it does not look demanding given its technical strengths and encouraging outlook. Longer-term, besides the benefits from hydrogen and pumped storage, we see DEC well positioned to gain from China's vigorous attitude towards nuclear generation as well. 

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Looks to Have More Room to Go

China

Shanghai Electric Group Company Limited manufactures power generation equipment. The Company produces and sells thermal generator set, nuclear power units, wind power equipment, power transmission and distribution equipment, and other products. Shanghai Electric Group also manufactures environmental protection equipment.

Shanghai Electric Group Company (601727 CH)

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Shanghai Electric Group Company (601727 CH)

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Maxing Out the 30 Changes

We estimate 30 changes at the June rebalance with a one-way turnover of 4.48% leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.86bn. The potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview (June 2022): Changes Near the Midway Mark

Nearly midway through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI300 index, we see 29 potential changes resulting in a one-way turnover of...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance: Methodology Tweak Results in More Changes & Larger Turnover

There are 28 changes to the CSI300 index at the Dec rebalance. A few large inclusions plus the expansion of the index universe pushes one-way...

Brian Freitas

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Healthy 3Q21 Result with Positive Order Flow

DEC achieved good 3Q21 earnings growth with healthy orders signed in 9M21. We see room for upgrade in Street forecasts, and continue to like its...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Looks to Have More Room to Go

DEC has witnessed positive earnings revisions and encouraging new orders momentum, and we think there is more room for share price to go. Its edge...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)