Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>In my monthly recap note, I provide a performance update of my weekly trade recommendations in emerging markets FX and rates.</li>
<li>Of the total of 31 trade recommendations made so far, I have recommended closing 21 of which 17 were in the money.</li>
<li>I also go over my open trade recommendations as well as those that I have closed recently.</li>
</ul>


In my monthly recap note, I provide a performance update of my weekly trade recommendations in emerging markets FX and rates.
Of the total of 31 trade recommendations made so far, I have recommended closing 21 of which 17 were in the money.
I also go over my open trade recommendations as well as those that I have closed recently.


Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations in FX and Rates – January 2022

<ul>
<li>In my monthly recap note , I provide a performance update of my weekly trade recommendations in emerging markets FX and rates</li>
<li>Of the total of 27 trade recommendations made so far, I have recommended closing 18 of which 15 were in the money.</li>
<li>I also go over my open trade recommendations as well as those that I have closed recently.</li>
</ul>


In my monthly recap note , I provide a performance update of my weekly trade recommendations in emerging markets FX and rates
Of the total of 27 trade recommendations made so far, I have recommended closing 18 of which 15 were in the money.
I also go over my open trade recommendations as well as those that I have closed recently.


Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations – November 2021

In this week’s Alpha Bites, we recommend buying the Thai baht (THB) against the Singapore dollar (SGD) in a beta-neutral ratio. After lagging for much of the year, THB has finally started catching up with its EM peers as coronavirus cases have peaked and vaccinations have picked up, allowing for tourism to return. In the case of Singapore, the MAS started tightening monetary policy at the last semiannual review, but growth is not strong enough to justify significant further tightening yet. Besides, SGD appreciated immediately after the MAS announcement, reflecting the move.

In this week’s Alpha Bites, we recommend buying the Thai baht (THB) against the Singapore dollar (SGD) in a beta-neutral ratio. After lagging for much of the year, THB has finally started catching up with its EM peers as coronavirus cases have peaked and vaccinations have picked up, allowing for tourism to return. In the case of Singapore, the MAS started tightening monetary policy at the last semiannual review, but growth is not strong enough to justify significant further tightening yet. Besides, SGD appreciated immediately after the MAS announcement, reflecting the move.

Alpha Bites: Long Thai Baht (THB) Vs Short Singapore Dollar (SGD)

After strengthening through early October, the US dollar has turned trendless. I evaluate the change in performance of EM currencies when the dollar was at a peak versus now. Specifically, I go over the regional and country divergences to identify the outperformers and underperformers. I also highlight the currencies where I see the most value.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which I seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

After strengthening through early October, the US dollar has turned trendless. I evaluate the change in performance of EM currencies when the dollar was at a peak versus now. Specifically, I go over the regional and country divergences to identify the outperformers and underperformers. I also highlight the currencies where I see the most value.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which I seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Updating EM FX Winners and Losers

As the US dollar has come off the peak, EM currencies have benefited, including Asian currencies. The Thai baht is among the currencies that have performed well lately as it has been supported by easing of curbs on falling coronavirus cases, signs of tourism picking up, raising of the debt ceiling to create space for further fiscal stimulus, and the central bank turning less dovish. While there is ample room for the baht to make up its lag with the rest of EM, the currency's recovery is likely to be gradual and marked by volatility.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

As the US dollar has come off the peak, EM currencies have benefited, including Asian currencies. The Thai baht is among the currencies that have performed well lately as it has been supported by easing of curbs on falling coronavirus cases, signs of tourism picking up, raising of the debt ceiling to create space for further fiscal stimulus, and the central bank turning less dovish. While there is ample room for the baht to make up its lag with the rest of EM, the currency's recovery is likely to be gradual and marked by volatility.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Is the Thai Baht Finally Turning?

Singapore

The Singapore dollar is the official currency of the Republic of Singapore. 

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SGD (USDSGD CURNCY)

Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations in FX and Rates – January 2022

I provide a performance update of all my trade recommendations along with discussing the open trades. I have closed 21 of the 31 trades recommended...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations – November 2021

I provide a performance update of all my trade recommendations along with discussing the open trades. I have recommended closing 18 of the 27...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Alpha Bites: Long Thai Baht (THB) Vs Short Singapore Dollar (SGD)

I recommend a Long Thai baht/Short Singapore dollar trade as growth in Thailand is finally starting to pick up but is not strong enough in...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Updating EM FX Winners and Losers

As the US dollar turns trendless, I go over the regional and country divergences to identify the outperformers and underperformers in EM. I also...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Is the Thai Baht Finally Turning?

The Thai baht has performed well lately on the easing of curbs and tourism picking up. While there is ample room to make up its previous lag, the...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)