Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Equity Bottom-Up

Mizuho Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

On Monday 23 August, Mizuho Bank suffered its 6th systems failure so far this year.  This time, some 130 of its around 5,300 ATMs stopped working for about an hour just after noon.  This comes in the wake of last Friday’s débâcle, when the bank opened its doors for business at 09:00am but none of the computer terminals at its counters nationwide would function properly.  Are these repeated systems failures simply a hardware problem, a software problem, or is the fundamental problem a more human one?
While management searches for solutions, and the inevitable finger-pointing continues, the bank’s reputation erodes.  The damage to the share price of parent company Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP) has so far been comparatively light, but for how much longer?  MHFG has markedly underperformed its two megabank rivals <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-mitsui-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:217:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)</a> so far this year in a rising market, with its stock price up just +6.5% YoY against MUFG’s +34.6% and SMFG’s +21.3%, respectively.  Foreign investors still own in aggregate over 22% of MHFG’s stock, but their patience is being sorely tested.  Further revelations of systems mishaps, or punitive actions by the FSA against MHFG, may well lead to a swift exit by some shareholders; a sell-off cannot be ruled out.
Caveat Emptor! (May the Buyer Beware!) remains our advice to would-be investors in this enormous but highly volatile banking group.

On Monday 23 August, Mizuho Bank suffered its 6th systems failure so far this year.  This time, some 130 of its around 5,300 ATMs stopped working for about an hour just after noon.  This comes in the wake of last Friday’s débâcle, when the bank opened its doors for business at 09:00am but none of the computer terminals at its counters nationwide would function properly.  Are these repeated systems failures simply a hardware problem, a software problem, or is the fundamental problem a more human one?
While management searches for solutions, and the inevitable finger-pointing continues, the bank’s reputation erodes.  The damage to the share price of parent company Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP) has so far been comparatively light, but for how much longer?  MHFG has markedly underperformed its two megabank rivals Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) so far this year in a rising market, with its stock price up just +6.5% YoY against MUFG’s +34.6% and SMFG’s +21.3%, respectively.  Foreign investors still own in aggregate over 22% of MHFG’s stock, but their patience is being sorely tested.  Further revelations of systems mishaps, or punitive actions by the FSA against MHFG, may well lead to a swift exit by some shareholders; a sell-off cannot be ruled out.
Caveat Emptor! (May the Buyer Beware!) remains our advice to would-be investors in this enormous but highly volatile banking group.

Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP):  Systemic Failures - A Human Factor?

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/891/original/2020-07-20_11-11-13.png?1595211104" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146891"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>THE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing low of 1,236.34 on 16th March, the index has recovered by 27%. However, it has only been in the last ten trading days that the number of new two-year share price highs and lows has consistently been in double-digits.  This month has seen 136 new two-year lows and 214 new two-year highs. Whatever the impact of COVID-19 on earnings, the market is very clearly signalling its preferences for COVID 'Heroes &amp; Villains'. In the DETAIL section below, we shall look at the leading large caps in both categories and suggest opportunities in each.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/894/original/2020-07-20_11-42-42.png?1595213322" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146894"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>RELATIVE PRICE - We shall also conduct the same analysis using our Relative Price Score methodology. The July numbers are 469 Relative Price Score new lows and 229 new highs suggesting a high degree of market polarity as confirmed by the percentages of market value in Overbought and Oversold Stocks - which are both at twenty-year highs.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/895/original/2020-07-20_11-58-18.png?1595214235" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146895"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>RESULTS DRIVER - We expect the number of absolute 'heroes and villains' to increase in the next two months as the COVID fallout on earnings is revealed, and will provide further updates as we progress.

Source • Japan AnalyticsTHE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing low of 1,236.34 on 16th March, the index has recovered by 27%. However, it has only been in the last ten trading days that the number of new two-year share price highs and lows has consistently been in double-digits.  This month has seen 136 new two-year lows and 214 new two-year highs. Whatever the impact of COVID-19 on earnings, the market is very clearly signalling its preferences for COVID 'Heroes &amp; Villains'. In the DETAIL section below, we shall look at the leading large caps in both categories and suggest opportunities in each.Source • Japan AnalyticsRELATIVE PRICE - We shall also conduct the same analysis using our Relative Price Score methodology. The July numbers are 469 Relative Price Score new lows and 229 new highs suggesting a high degree of market polarity as confirmed by the percentages of market value in Overbought and Oversold Stocks - which are both at twenty-year highs.Source • Japan AnalyticsRESULTS DRIVER - We expect the number of absolute 'heroes and villains' to increase in the next two months as the COVID fallout on earnings is revealed, and will provide further updates as we progress. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Hundred Days War - COVID Heroes & Villains

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Today after the close the Nikkei Inc <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/en/nkave/archives/news/20200715E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that it would delete <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-financial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:564:1" rel="noopener">Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP)</a> from a few of its indices and in the case of the Nikkei 225, would replace it with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-exchange-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11266:1" rel="noopener">Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP)</a>. Changes will be made so that the calculation changes as of the opening price of 29 July, meaning the inclusion event takes place at the close of trading on 28 July. This is a new way of dealing with Securities which will likely be delisted, following the <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/en/nkave/archives/news/20200615E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> of a slight change in policy made on 15 June, titled Changes to the Constituents Selection Rules of the Nikkei Stock Average which followed a <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/en/nkave/archives/news/20200511E_2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">consultation</a> starting in early May.This was not that much of a surprise. There were several "top picks" out there, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16063:1" rel="noopener">Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP)</a>, the Japan Post names not in already, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9936:1" rel="noopener">Orix Corp (8591 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">Sbi Holdings (8473 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monex-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1" rel="noopener">Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)</a>. The fact that there were so many top picks indicates three things at the outset.<ol>
<li>Not everyone is in the successful inclusion,</li>
<li>People are in names which were not successful inclusions and will want to exit,</li>
<li>The Nikkei has rules or habits which are vague enough to be considered unreliable. That creates for more surprise when inclusions come, but it also creates for unreliable index construction, which remains a problem. </li>
</ol>However, Japan Exchange Group saw a decent run on excess volume, perhaps partially helped by rising forward Street consensus EBIT. The trade is partially "done" already.The details of the inclusion and exclusion trades, flows, etc are, of course, below.

Today after the close the Nikkei Inc announced that it would delete Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP) from a few of its indices and in the case of the Nikkei 225, would replace it with Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP). Changes will be made so that the calculation changes as of the opening price of 29 July, meaning the inclusion event takes place at the close of trading on 28 July. This is a new way of dealing with Securities which will likely be delisted, following the announcement of a slight change in policy made on 15 June, titled Changes to the Constituents Selection Rules of the Nikkei Stock Average which followed a consultation starting in early May.This was not that much of a surprise. There were several "top picks" out there, including Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP), the Japan Post names not in already, Orix Corp (8591 JP), Sbi Holdings (8473 JP) and Monex Group Inc (8698 JP). The fact that there were so many top picks indicates three things at the outset.
Not everyone is in the successful inclusion,
People are in names which were not successful inclusions and will want to exit,
The Nikkei has rules or habits which are vague enough to be considered unreliable. That creates for more surprise when inclusions come, but it also creates for unreliable index construction, which remains a problem. 
However, Japan Exchange Group saw a decent run on excess volume, perhaps partially helped by rising forward Street consensus EBIT. The trade is partially "done" already.The details of the inclusion and exclusion trades, flows, etc are, of course, below.

Coming with a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a><a href="https://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/strategy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Corporate Strategy Meeting</a>, there was an announcement of a couple of <a href="https://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/News/Press/202005/20-040E/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Executive Changes</a> based on a <a href="https://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/News/Press/202005/20-039E/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">New Organizational Structure</a> which, for strategic reasons, means that Sony is obliged to announce a Tender Offer to take full control of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-financial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:564:1" rel="noopener">Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP)</a>.So.... Sony takes out Sony Financial. This is an event which special situations investors/analysts/traders have speculated on for years, but this takeover is extremely opportunistic.Today's <a href="https://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/news/20200519_02E.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> is the functional equivalent of a 'Dear John' letter to Sony Financial shareholders.<blockquote>
It's not you - it's me. 
And I want to be fair. 
If there's anything else, please talk to my lawyer. 
</blockquote>To be sure, that is not an actual quote from Sony but it might as well be. Takeout price?    It's at a....    [checks notes]...  three month high? For a cash takeover? Surely you must be joking. Don't read the Tender Offer document. It will just get you upset.The Tender Offer Price is 30% higher than the first offer made by Sony. And Sony made the approach with a share exchange proposal, when the SFH/Sony share price ratio was at the lowest level since SFH was listed. Minority protections like Majority of Minority? Nope. Minimum hurdle?  1.6% of shareholders must tender to make it successful. Post-deal recourse? Not much. Shareholder appraisal rights are effectively impaired since the JCOM decision. This is one of the GREAT failings of experts, authorities, and the Court. Is there a chance upset shareholders could block this? There is a theoretical chance, but it is, in my opinion, improbable in the extreme.<hr>This is going to make some people unhappy. This will go down in the books as a situation where SONY parent should have done better. My constant refrain to shareholders in Japan is...<div class="content-highlight">
If you want takeover prices for minorities to be anywhere near appropriate, you need to make yourself heard. 
"The Rules" enable and support management and incumbent/insider abuse of minorities. 
Demand reasonable, fair, and global standard treatment from your independent directors. Make it known to the parent in situations where the shareholder structure allows abuse that you will exercise your rights where and how necessary. 
</div>In the meantime, we have a risk arb situation to trade...

Coming with a Sony Corp (6758 JP)Corporate Strategy Meeting, there was an announcement of a couple of Executive Changes based on a New Organizational Structure which, for strategic reasons, means that Sony is obliged to announce a Tender Offer to take full control of Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP).So.... Sony takes out Sony Financial. This is an event which special situations investors/analysts/traders have speculated on for years, but this takeover is extremely opportunistic.Today's announcement is the functional equivalent of a 'Dear John' letter to Sony Financial shareholders.
It's not you - it's me. 
And I want to be fair. 
If there's anything else, please talk to my lawyer. 
To be sure, that is not an actual quote from Sony but it might as well be. Takeout price?    It's at a....    [checks notes]...  three month high? For a cash takeover? Surely you must be joking. Don't read the Tender Offer document. It will just get you upset.The Tender Offer Price is 30% higher than the first offer made by Sony. And Sony made the approach with a share exchange proposal, when the SFH/Sony share price ratio was at the lowest level since SFH was listed. Minority protections like Majority of Minority? Nope. Minimum hurdle?  1.6% of shareholders must tender to make it successful. Post-deal recourse? Not much. Shareholder appraisal rights are effectively impaired since the JCOM decision. This is one of the GREAT failings of experts, authorities, and the Court. Is there a chance upset shareholders could block this? There is a theoretical chance, but it is, in my opinion, improbable in the extreme.This is going to make some people unhappy. This will go down in the books as a situation where SONY parent should have done better. My constant refrain to shareholders in Japan is...
If you want takeover prices for minorities to be anywhere near appropriate, you need to make yourself heard. 
"The Rules" enable and support management and incumbent/insider abuse of minorities. 
Demand reasonable, fair, and global standard treatment from your independent directors. Make it known to the parent in situations where the shareholder structure allows abuse that you will exercise your rights where and how necessary. 
In the meantime, we have a risk arb situation to trade...

Sony FINALLY Takes Out Sony Financial in Tender Offer

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/923/original/2020-02-08_18-15-45.png?1581196263" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116923"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/924/original/2020-02-09_06-34-51.png?1581197706" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116924"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-caption"></div>OOOPS! - The 480 quarterly results announced on Friday subtracted a further 20 basis points from our Results Score. If the remaining 38% of companies continue this trend, the current quarter will equal CQ2019-1 and CQ2018-2 in seeing a 200 basis point Results Score decline. 169 forecasts or revision announcements added  5bps to the Forecast/Revision Score, supported by slight upward revisions from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a>.  The Results Score has dipped below the Forecast/Revision Score for the first time since July 2016 and is a necessary precursor of the bottoming of the cycle. Japan is now in a recession and could see a decline in GDP for the calendar year. The market's current optimism (aided by the Bank of Japan's buy-the-dips support programme) is more appropriate to the middle of the cycle and, with two further poor earnings quarters ahead, suggests limited further upside. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/925/original/2020-02-08_10-48-19.png?1581199859" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116925"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>18x EARNINGS - Trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Operating Income for the composite of listed companies has declined to ¥57.4t, 10% below the peak of early 2019. TTM Net Income has declined by 20% over the same period, resulting in a 6.1 point increase in the market price-earnings ratio to 17.6 times.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/927/original/2020-02-08_10-55-21.png?1581200256" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116927"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>TTM RESULTS - TTM Operating Profits have been declining quarter-on-quarter for five straight quarters, and are 8.1% lower year-on-year. The Operating Margin has declined from 7.45% to 6.80%. TTM Revenues are now also falling and have only increased by 0.7% year-on-year.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/928/original/2020-02-08_10-59-00.png?1581200533" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116928"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>FORECASTS - The year-on-year Operating Profit decline using current forecasts is 8.5%, while Revenues are flat. Revenue forecasts have been falling quarter-on-quarter for three quarters in a row. The 'uplift' from TTM to Forecast is just ¥3t for sales and ¥0.3t for OP.

Source • Japan AnalyticsOOOPS! - The 480 quarterly results announced on Friday subtracted a further 20 basis points from our Results Score. If the remaining 38% of companies continue this trend, the current quarter will equal CQ2019-1 and CQ2018-2 in seeing a 200 basis point Results Score decline. 169 forecasts or revision announcements added  5bps to the Forecast/Revision Score, supported by slight upward revisions from Softbank Corp (9434 JP) and Honda Motor (7267 JP).  The Results Score has dipped below the Forecast/Revision Score for the first time since July 2016 and is a necessary precursor of the bottoming of the cycle. Japan is now in a recession and could see a decline in GDP for the calendar year. The market's current optimism (aided by the Bank of Japan's buy-the-dips support programme) is more appropriate to the middle of the cycle and, with two further poor earnings quarters ahead, suggests limited further upside. Source • Japan Analytics18x EARNINGS - Trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Operating Income for the composite of listed companies has declined to ¥57.4t, 10% below the peak of early 2019. TTM Net Income has declined by 20% over the same period, resulting in a 6.1 point increase in the market price-earnings ratio to 17.6 times.Source • Japan AnalyticsTTM RESULTS - TTM Operating Profits have been declining quarter-on-quarter for five straight quarters, and are 8.1% lower year-on-year. The Operating Margin has declined from 7.45% to 6.80%. TTM Revenues are now also falling and have only increased by 0.7% year-on-year.Source • Japan AnalyticsFORECASTS - The year-on-year Operating Profit decline using current forecasts is 8.5%, while Revenues are flat. Revenue forecasts have been falling quarter-on-quarter for three quarters in a row. The 'uplift' from TTM to Forecast is just ¥3t for sales and ¥0.3t for OP. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 7th February ▲2121 7267 5713 ▼ 5401 9616 3407

Japan

Seven Bank, Ltd. provides banking services mainly through Automated Teller Machine (ATM) across Japan. The bank cooperates with affiliated financial institutions to establish the nationwide ATM network and provide remote banking services, including deposits and loans.

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Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP)

Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP): Systemic Failures - A Human Factor?

Mizuho Bank has now had 6 systems failures so far this year. Are these repeated systems failures simply a hardware problem, a software problem, or...

J. Brian Waterhouse

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Hundred Days War - COVID Heroes & Villains

THE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing...

Campbell Gunn

Nikkei 225 - JPX IN, Sony Financial OUT

Today after the close the Nikkei Inc announced that it would delete Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP) from a few of its indices and in the case of...

Travis Lundy

Sony FINALLY Takes Out Sony Financial in Tender Offer

Coming with a Sony Corp (6758 JP)Corporate Strategy Meeting, there was an announcement of a couple of Executive Changes based on a New...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 7th February ▲2121 7267 5713 ▼ 5401 9616 3407

OOOPS! - The 480 quarterly results announced on Friday subtracted a further 20 basis points from our Results Score. If the remaining 38% of...

Campbell Gunn

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