TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

Palantir Technologies  / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Palantir’s earnings call was a master class in obfuscation.</p><p><strong>Since 4Q20 earnings on February 16, 2021, five C-Suite executives from Palantir have sold $250MM (!!) in stock, with CEO Alex Karp selling $137MM in just the past 3 months. Luckily for them, Cathie Wood and ARK has bought 20M shares for $480MM! </strong></p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Palantir’s earnings call was a master class in obfuscation.Since 4Q20 earnings on February 16, 2021, five C-Suite executives from Palantir have sold $250MM (!!) in stock, with CEO Alex Karp selling $137MM in just the past 3 months. Luckily for them, Cathie Wood and ARK has bought 20M shares for $480MM! Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Palantir 1Q21 Earnings: ARK’s Buying What They’re Selling

<p>Kind of a mediocre underwhelming analyst presentation by one of our favorite software companies, but the larger long term picture remains intact: a huge pool of legacy incumbent endpoint providers that Crowdstrike will feast on for years to come.</p><p></p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity. </p></div>

Kind of a mediocre underwhelming analyst presentation by one of our favorite software companies, but the larger long term picture remains intact: a huge pool of legacy incumbent endpoint providers that Crowdstrike will feast on for years to come.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity. 

Crowdstrike Analyst Day: Really, Just $3B in ARR?

<p>Palantir generated $93M more revenues this quarter then a year ago. From that $93M, the company generated $174M more in operating income, which swung its EBIT margins from (31%) to 32% YoY…adjusted EBITDA margins of course (there was $1B in incremental SBC). In any case, that is some sort of remarkable business. Especially for a software company that is building a direct sales force and theoretically needs to be investing heavily in R&amp;D to keep up with the competition. Palantir talks about generating insight through the fog of war, but in our short time analyzing this company, we can’t find our way through the fog.</p><p></p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Palantir generated $93M more revenues this quarter then a year ago. From that $93M, the company generated $174M more in operating income, which swung its EBIT margins from (31%) to 32% YoY…adjusted EBITDA margins of course (there was $1B in incremental SBC). In any case, that is some sort of remarkable business. Especially for a software company that is building a direct sales force and theoretically needs to be investing heavily in R&amp;D to keep up with the competition. Palantir talks about generating insight through the fog of war, but in our short time analyzing this company, we can’t find our way through the fog.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Palantir 4Q20 Earnings: The Greatest Operating Leverage Story Ever Told

<p>In 4Q20, Amazon turned in another sensational quarter, but essentially hasn’t moved since September as it has been “growing” into its valuation after a meteoric move in 1H20. In the past year, Amazon has spent an incremental $11.5B on COVID related costs (~10% of 2020 opex), increased the square footage of its logistics network’s square footage by 50%  and also added ~650,000 (!!!) employees, doubling its employee base in what also turns out to be the largest mobilization of workers in the US since World War II. And yet…since September 2, the stock is down 4% from its alltime high. We think Amazon is worth closer to $6,000 then $3,000 and think that it has potentially the same type of setup as last year when we began writing (on Smartkarma) about Amazon. In years after the company has huge capacity expansions, it tends to outperform as the operating leverage of capacity utilization shines through.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

In 4Q20, Amazon turned in another sensational quarter, but essentially hasn’t moved since September as it has been “growing” into its valuation after a meteoric move in 1H20. In the past year, Amazon has spent an incremental $11.5B on COVID related costs (~10% of 2020 opex), increased the square footage of its logistics network’s square footage by 50%  and also added ~650,000 (!!!) employees, doubling its employee base in what also turns out to be the largest mobilization of workers in the US since World War II. And yet…since September 2, the stock is down 4% from its alltime high. We think Amazon is worth closer to $6,000 then $3,000 and think that it has potentially the same type of setup as last year when we began writing (on Smartkarma) about Amazon. In years after the company has huge capacity expansions, it tends to outperform as the operating leverage of capacity utilization shines through.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

<p>Amazon turned in another sensational quarter, and gave an impressive guidance given the sheer amount of spending the company is engaged in as it builds its logistics capabilities at breakneck speed. The stock, like its mega cap brethren has been weak for a variety of reasons (Covid/Election-linked volatility = sell all beats)..and is at the same price as prior to 2Q20 earnings. For a long term investor, $3000 is a good entry point, as we think the stock is eventually worth $6000…and ongoing Covid lockdowns will only increase demand for all its services.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Amazon turned in another sensational quarter, and gave an impressive guidance given the sheer amount of spending the company is engaged in as it builds its logistics capabilities at breakneck speed. The stock, like its mega cap brethren has been weak for a variety of reasons (Covid/Election-linked volatility = sell all beats)..and is at the same price as prior to 2Q20 earnings. For a long term investor, $3000 is a good entry point, as we think the stock is eventually worth $6000…and ongoing Covid lockdowns will only increase demand for all its services.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

United States

ServiceNow, Inc. provides enterprise information technology (IT) management software. The Company designs, develops, and produces prepackaged computer software, cloud services, and IT service management platform. ServiceNow serves customers throughout the United States.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Servicenow Inc (NOW US)

Palantir 1Q21 Earnings: ARK’s Buying What They’re Selling

Since 4Q20 C-Suite executives from Palantir have sold $250MM (!!) in stock, with CEO Alex Karp selling $137MM in just the past 3 months. Luckily...

Aaron Gabin

Crowdstrike Analyst Day: Really, Just $3B in ARR?

Crowdstrike Analyst Day was underwhelming with easily reached ARR and Operating Model Targets introduced. We like the stock anyway, especially with...

Aaron Gabin

Palantir 4Q20 Earnings: The Greatest Operating Leverage Story Ever Told

Palantir's quarter, much like the rest of the company was perplexing. We believe the stock is overvalued even in the high 20s, and the coming...

Aaron Gabin

Amazon 4Q20: The GOAT Departs

Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos is stepping down. We doubt he steps away. 2021 is a unique setup. Its the first time Amazon was up during a big capacity...

Aaron Gabin

Amazon 3Q20: Amazon $6,000

Amazon's continued success is nothing new, but the pause in the stock grants longer term investors another bite at the apple at $3000...we think...

Aaron Gabin

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)