ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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This past week's offering of Insights across <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up pieces. Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. 
I also include in the detailed section some brief insight into some of the most interesting company visits conducted in Jakarta last week including property developer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20589" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20589:1">Sentul City Tbk Pt (BKSL IJ)</a>, tile manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17042" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17042:1">Arwana Citramulia Tbk Pt (ARNA IJ)</a>, healthcare play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23663" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23663:1">Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ)</a>, industrial estate player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/428" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:428:1">Puradelta Lestari Tbk Pt (DMAS IJ)</a> , Singapore listed Indonesian water treatment player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2293" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2293:1">Moya Holdings Asia Ltd (MHAL SP)</a>, and Indonesian Pizza Hut operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27011" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27011:1">Sarimelati Kencana PT (PZZA IJ)</a>.
</div><h2> Macro Insights</h2>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asian-exports-power-ahead-lifted-by-china-demand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22140">Asian Exports - Power Ahead Lifted By China Demand</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1728" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1728">Sharmila Whelan</a> comments on the potential impact of the trade war on Asian economies.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asian-economic-trends-divergent-inflation-trade-takes-a-breather" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22095">Asian Economic Trends: Divergent Inflation; Trade Takes a Breather</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/35" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:35">Manu Bhaskaran</a> lays out his views on inflation and trade in Asian in the face of the current trade war. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/foreign-investment-trends-are-broadly-favourable-for-asian-economies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22070">Foreign Investment Trends Are Broadly Favourable for Asian Economies</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1567" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1567">Nicholas Chia</a> highlights that the prospects for FDI in Asia look a little shakey. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/malaysia-closing-the-book-on-the-najib-era" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:21982">Malaysia: Closing the Book on the Najib Era</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/35" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:35">Manu Bhaskaran</a> examines the closing of the events that have taken place since the demise of Najib's as Prime Minister of Malaysia. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesian-politics-week-ministers-on-barriers-vp-hesitation-freeport-deal-helps-widodo-alone" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22168">Indonesian Politics Week: Ministers on Barriers; VP Hesitation; Freeport Deal Helps Widodo (Alone)</a>, political Insight provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/2060" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2060">Kevin O’Rourke</a> examines the most important events coming out in the political space over the past week. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/persistent-weakness-of-the-bangko-sentral-s-fx-reserves" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22004">Persistent Weakness of the Bangko Sentral's FX Reserves</a>, economic insight provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1930" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1930">Jun Trinidad</a> outlines his thoughts on declining foreign exchange reserves in the Philippines. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/swelling-philippine-trade-gap-in-may-despite-a-competitive-php" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22074">Swelling Philippine Trade Gap in May Despite A Competitive PHP</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1930" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1930">Jun Trinidad</a> zeros on the widening trade gap in the Philippines but does not find too much to be overly concerned about.  In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thailand-sanguine-growth-prospects-to-compel-tighter-monetary-policy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22068">Thailand: Sanguine Growth Prospects to Compel Tighter Monetary Policy</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/48" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:48">Jason Tan</a> suggests that the Thai economy remains firmly on track for solid economic expansion, fuelled by robust exports, rising domestic demand and a resilient tourism sector. Farm incomes are looking perkier, buoyed by rising agricultural production levels. <h2>Equity Bottom-up Insights</h2>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yong-tai-ytb-mk-attended-grand-launch-of-encore-melaka-show-stock-trades-at-5x-fy19-ev-ebitda" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:21967">Yong Tai (YTB MK): Attended Grand Launch of Encore Melaka Show; Stock Trades at 5x FY19 EV/EBITDA</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1208" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> circles back to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20562" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20562:1">Yong Tai Bhd (YTB MK)</a> following a visit to the official launch of the Encore Melaka: Impression Series show over the weekend. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dairy-farm-international-holdings-anticipation-of-a-margin-turnaround-reflects-in-the-stock-rally" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22051">Dairy Farm International Holdings: Anticipation of a Margin Turnaround Reflects in the Stock Rally</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1914" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1914">Shilpa Krishnan</a> zeros in on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7427" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7427:1">Dairy Farm Intl Hldgs Ltd (DFI SP)</a> and takes a positive view. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/frasers-commercial-trust-fcot-sp-registers-a-record-low-exit-yield-on-divestment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22063">Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT SP) Registers a Record Low Exit Yield on Divestment</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1786" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1786">Anni Kum</a> circles back to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13879" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13879:1">Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT SP)</a> following a recent asset sale.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sunningdale-tech-sunn-sp-value-with-a-catalyst-conviction-buy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:21212">Sunningdale Tech (SUNN SP): Value...with a Catalyst - CONVICTION BUY</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/2658" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2658">Curtis Lehnert</a> circles back to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11888" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11888:1">Sunningdale Tech Ltd (SUNN SP)</a> and finds an interesting situation. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sunningdale-tech-sunn-sp-value-with-a-catalyst-conviction-buy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:21212"></a>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/top-glove-aspion-issues-stretched-balance-sheet-means-rebound-likely-short-lived" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22148">Top Glove: Aspion Issues + Stretched Balance Sheet Means Rebound Likely Short-Lived</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/803" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:803">Valerie Law, CFA</a> takes a look at rubber glove manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20759" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20759:1">Top Glove Corp Bhd (TOPG MK)</a> and come away with some reservations following accusations of an overstatement of assets in a recent acquisition by the company. Sector and Thematic InsightsIn <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-office-rising-capital-value-might-not-be-a-good-thing-for-office-reits-after-all" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22044">Singapore Office – Rising Capital Value Might Not Be a Good Thing for Office REITs After All</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/2053" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2053">Royston Foo</a> circles back to look at the Singapore office REIT market following a recent transaction by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13879" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13879:1">Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT SP)</a>.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-m-a-boldest-deals-of-2018" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22079">Thai M&amp;A: Boldest Deals of 2018</a>, our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> looks at the most eye-catching deals in Thailand in 2018. In his <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-property-weekly-recap-7th-jul-to-13th-jul-a-week-after-new-property-cooling-measures" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22110">Singapore Property Weekly Recap (7th Jul to 13th Jul) - A Week After New Property Cooling Measures</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/2053" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2053">Royston Foo</a> outlines the most important pieces of news in the Singapore property market and provides us with his value-added commentary. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/maplecroft-on-labor-robotics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22122">Maplecroft on Labor &amp; Robotics</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> comments on the recent Maplecroft report on robotics, which makes for a worrying read. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/catching-the-thai-mice-a-billion-dollar-tourism-linked-industry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22152">Catching the Thai MICE, a Billion Dollar Tourism-Linked Industry</a>, Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> works his magic on the MICE market in Thailand.


This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up pieces. Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. 
I also include in the detailed section some brief insight into some of the most interesting company visits conducted in Jakarta last week including property developer Sentul City Tbk Pt (BKSL IJ), tile manufacturer Arwana Citramulia Tbk Pt (ARNA IJ), healthcare play Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ), industrial estate player Puradelta Lestari Tbk Pt (DMAS IJ) , Singapore listed Indonesian water treatment player Moya Holdings Asia Ltd (MHAL SP), and Indonesian Pizza Hut operator Sarimelati Kencana PT (PZZA IJ).
 Macro InsightsIn Asian Exports - Power Ahead Lifted By China Demand, Sharmila Whelan comments on the potential impact of the trade war on Asian economies.In Asian Economic Trends: Divergent Inflation; Trade Takes a Breather, Manu Bhaskaran lays out his views on inflation and trade in Asian in the face of the current trade war. In Foreign Investment Trends Are Broadly Favourable for Asian Economies, Nicholas Chia highlights that the prospects for FDI in Asia look a little shakey. In Malaysia: Closing the Book on the Najib Era, Manu Bhaskaran examines the closing of the events that have taken place since the demise of Najib's as Prime Minister of Malaysia. In Indonesian Politics Week: Ministers on Barriers; VP Hesitation; Freeport Deal Helps Widodo (Alone), political Insight provider Kevin O’Rourke examines the most important events coming out in the political space over the past week. In Persistent Weakness of the Bangko Sentral's FX Reserves, economic insight provider Jun Trinidad outlines his thoughts on declining foreign exchange reserves in the Philippines. In Swelling Philippine Trade Gap in May Despite A Competitive PHP, Jun Trinidad zeros on the widening trade gap in the Philippines but does not find too much to be overly concerned about.  In Thailand: Sanguine Growth Prospects to Compel Tighter Monetary Policy, Jason Tan suggests that the Thai economy remains firmly on track for solid economic expansion, fuelled by robust exports, rising domestic demand and a resilient tourism sector. Farm incomes are looking perkier, buoyed by rising agricultural production levels. Equity Bottom-up InsightsIn Yong Tai (YTB MK): Attended Grand Launch of Encore Melaka Show; Stock Trades at 5x FY19 EV/EBITDA , Nicolas Van Broekhoven circles back to Yong Tai Bhd (YTB MK) following a visit to the official launch of the Encore Melaka: Impression Series show over the weekend. In Dairy Farm International Holdings: Anticipation of a Margin Turnaround Reflects in the Stock Rally, Shilpa Krishnan zeros in on Dairy Farm Intl Hldgs Ltd (DFI SP) and takes a positive view. In Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT SP) Registers a Record Low Exit Yield on Divestment, Anni Kum circles back to Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT SP) following a recent asset sale.In Sunningdale Tech (SUNN SP): Value...with a Catalyst - CONVICTION BUY, Curtis Lehnert circles back to Sunningdale Tech Ltd (SUNN SP) and finds an interesting situation. In Top Glove: Aspion Issues + Stretched Balance Sheet Means Rebound Likely Short-Lived, Valerie Law, CFA takes a look at rubber glove manufacturer Top Glove Corp Bhd (TOPG MK) and come away with some reservations following accusations of an overstatement of assets in a recent acquisition by the company. Sector and Thematic InsightsIn Singapore Office – Rising Capital Value Might Not Be a Good Thing for Office REITs After All, Royston Foo circles back to look at the Singapore office REIT market following a recent transaction by Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT SP).In Thai M&amp;A: Boldest Deals of 2018, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA looks at the most eye-catching deals in Thailand in 2018. In his Singapore Property Weekly Recap (7th Jul to 13th Jul) - A Week After New Property Cooling Measures, Royston Foo outlines the most important pieces of news in the Singapore property market and provides us with his value-added commentary. In Maplecroft on Labor &amp; Robotics, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA comments on the recent Maplecroft report on robotics, which makes for a worrying read. In Catching the Thai MICE, a Billion Dollar Tourism-Linked Industry, Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA works his magic on the MICE market in Thailand. 

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Rubber Gloves, Water Treatment and AEON Malls

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/667" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:667">Alan Greene</a> did an amazing job explaining how <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10946" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10946:1">Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (LMRT SP)</a> business model which derive its revenue from booming Indonesian middle class that has more spending power (hence in IDR) yet Lippo Malls REIT receives its financing in SGD. The income-expense currency mismatch could swing either way; hurting or helping the P/L. The recent announcement from the Indonesian tax regulator that all income earned from building and land leases in Indonesia will be subjected to 10% withholding tax. In this report, a couple of real estates and property development companies' balance sheet are looked through to find out what are their exposure to the taxable sector and how much is the impact on the pre-tax margin.

Alan Greene did an amazing job explaining how Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (LMRT SP) business model which derive its revenue from booming Indonesian middle class that has more spending power (hence in IDR) yet Lippo Malls REIT receives its financing in SGD. The income-expense currency mismatch could swing either way; hurting or helping the P/L. The recent announcement from the Indonesian tax regulator that all income earned from building and land leases in Indonesia will be subjected to 10% withholding tax. In this report, a couple of real estates and property development companies' balance sheet are looked through to find out what are their exposure to the taxable sector and how much is the impact on the pre-tax margin. 

Indo Real Estate Tax - Who Needs to Pay Up?

Indonesia

PT Sentul City Tbk develops, sells, operates, leases, and rehabilitates buildings intended for office, shopping center, recreation, and other purposes. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops and invests in real estate in the domestic and overseas markets.

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Sentul City (BKSL IJ)

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Rubber Gloves, Water Treatment and AEON Malls

This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable...

Angus Mackintosh

Indo Real Estate Tax - Who Needs to Pay Up?

Alan Greene did an amazing job explaining how Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (LMRT SP) business model which derive its revenue from booming...

Henry Soediarko

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)