Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.</li>
<li>This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.</li>
<li>We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.
This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.
We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight


MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q323 revenues of NT$57 billion, up 1.4% QoQ but down 24.3% YoY. For 2023 YTD, revenues have amounted to NT$167,575 billion, down 20.5% YoY.</li>
<li>Net income was NT$15.97, essentially flat QoQ. Gross margin came in at 35.9%, also flat QoQ. Utilisation for the quarter was 67%, down from 71% in the prior quarter.</li>
<li>Utilization set to further decline to low 60% levels in Q423, the lowest since the downturn began.</li>
</ul>


Q323 revenues of NT$57 billion, up 1.4% QoQ but down 24.3% YoY. For 2023 YTD, revenues have amounted to NT$167,575 billion, down 20.5% YoY.
Net income was NT$15.97, essentially flat QoQ. Gross margin came in at 35.9%, also flat QoQ. Utilisation for the quarter was 67%, down from 71% in the prior quarter.
Utilization set to further decline to low 60% levels in Q423, the lowest since the downturn began.


UMC. Automotive Weakness Prolongs Downturn

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This is the somewhat brand-spanking-new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows the last four weeks clearly indicate a momentum move. The top net sells are all down. The top buys are all up.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a> were the top net SOUTHBOUND inflows as SOUTHBOUND bought HK$8.515bn this past week.</li>
</ul>


This is the somewhat brand-spanking-new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
SOUTHBOUND flows the last four weeks clearly indicate a momentum move. The top net sells are all down. The top buys are all up.

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) were the top net SOUTHBOUND inflows as SOUTHBOUND bought HK$8.515bn this past week.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND (To 3 Nov 23); CNOOC & China Mobile AGAIN See Outflows, SMIC & Xiaomi See Buys

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 3rd.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Li Ning, Semiconductor Manufacturing International, Xiaomi, Wuxi Biologics, Kuaishou Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 3rd.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Li Ning, Semiconductor Manufacturing International, Xiaomi, Wuxi Biologics, Kuaishou Technology.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Nov 3rd): Li Ning, SMIC, Xiaomi

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 117.6% as of Nov 3rd.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -1.5ppt week on week, led by utilities, information technology, communication services and offset by energy.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Ganfeng Lithium, China Merchant Securities and Wuapptec.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 117.6% as of Nov 3rd.
The average A-H premium changed by -1.5ppt week on week, led by utilities, information technology, communication services and offset by energy.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Ganfeng Lithium, China Merchant Securities and Wuapptec.


A-H Premium Weekly (Nov 3rd): Ganfeng Lithium, CMS, Wuxi Apptec

China

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation operates a semiconductor foundry. The Company provides integrated circuit foundry and technology services including the testing, development, design, manufacturing, packaging, and sale of integrated circuits. Semiconductor Manufacturing International offers its products and services around the world.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

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Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)

MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

In our prior EM Strategy (10/2/23) we discussed that, if $EEM is above $37, we were buyers on the pullback. Support held and now EEM displays a...

Vermilion Research

UMC. Automotive Weakness Prolongs Downturn

Q323 revenues of NT$57 billion, up 1.4% QoQ but down 24.3% YoY. Net income was NT$15.97, essentially flat QoQ. Utilization to decline to low 60%...

William Keating

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND (To 3 Nov 23); CNOOC & China Mobile AGAIN See Outflows, SMIC & Xiaomi See Buys

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND flows saw net inflows for the 15th week in a row with +HKD 8.5bn. H/A pairs saw Hs outperform their As by 56bp. Flows are...

Travis Lundy

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Nov 3rd): Li Ning, SMIC, Xiaomi

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Li Ning, Semiconductor Manufacturing International, Xiaomi,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Nov 3rd): Ganfeng Lithium, CMS, Wuxi Apptec

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Ganfeng Lithium, China Merchant Securities and Wuapptec.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)