External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

Semen Indonesia (Gresik) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>SMGR’s management reaffirmed its ~3% vol growth target and 1% higher ASP in FY24F, seeing IKN as the LT demand driver.</li><li>ASP is expected to improve by 1.8% in May-Jun24, implying the ASP decline will narrow to -1.5% YTD in Jun24, based on our estimate.</li><li>Reiterate Buy rating with a TP of Rp6,700 on improving outlook and attractive EV/t of US$ 58/t (-1.5SD of the 10-year mean).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SMGR’s management reaffirmed its ~3% vol growth target and 1% higher ASP in FY24F, seeing IKN as the LT demand driver.ASP is expected to improve by 1.8% in May-Jun24, implying the ASP decline will narrow to -1.5% YTD in Jun24, based on our estimate.Reiterate Buy rating with a TP of Rp6,700 on improving outlook and attractive EV/t of US$ 58/t (-1.5SD of the 10-year mean).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semen Indonesia - A Better Optimism Following the May24 Price Hikes

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>SMGR recorded a revenue of IDR8.4tn in 1Q24, marking a contraction of -6.3% YoY (vs IDR8.9tn in FY22) and reflecting 21.3%/20.8% of MNCS/Consensus estimates.</li><li>The net profit plummeted by -16.0% YoY to IDR472bn with NPM of 5.6%, reflecting 20.5%/17.6% of MNCS/Consensus target.</li><li>However, we estimate a probability that SMGR will cut its ASP due to declining volume, while supply may potentially increase with the new player entering Indonesian market (Hongshi Group).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SMGR recorded a revenue of IDR8.4tn in 1Q24, marking a contraction of -6.3% YoY (vs IDR8.9tn in FY22) and reflecting 21.3%/20.8% of MNCS/Consensus estimates.The net profit plummeted by -16.0% YoY to IDR472bn with NPM of 5.6%, reflecting 20.5%/17.6% of MNCS/Consensus target.However, we estimate a probability that SMGR will cut its ASP due to declining volume, while supply may potentially increase with the new player entering Indonesian market (Hongshi Group).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PT Semen Indonesia Tbk (SMGR IJ) - Facing Challenges Head-On

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We expect SMGR/ INTP 9M24F to reach 47%/63% of our estimate vs. 72%/65% seasonality, hence potential miss for SMGR but inline for INTP. </li><li>Sales volume expanded in 3Q24F vs. 1H24, and ASP is stabilizing with a noticeable rise in Sep24. </li><li>The 3mn housing program would be the blue-sky scenario for the cement industry; we maintain a Neutral rating on the sector for now.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect SMGR/ INTP 9M24F to reach 47%/63% of our estimate vs. 72%/65% seasonality, hence potential miss for SMGR but inline for INTP. Sales volume expanded in 3Q24F vs. 1H24, and ASP is stabilizing with a noticeable rise in Sep24. The 3mn housing program would be the blue-sky scenario for the cement industry; we maintain a Neutral rating on the sector for now.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement: 3Q24 Preview: Expanding Volume, Stabilizing ASP

<ul><li>INTP's sales vol continued to outperform with a 3.5% yoy growth (exGrobogan) in Aug24, vs. industry’s -1% yoy and SMGR’s -5% yoy.</li><li>Bag ASP showed improvement across SMGR's and INTP’s products; yet, as Merdeka is still priced relatively low, risk of price war lingers.</li><li>Maintain Neutral rating on the sector, with INTP as our top pick; the availability and pricing of Semen Merdeka is the key factor to watch.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

INTP's sales vol continued to outperform with a 3.5% yoy growth (exGrobogan) in Aug24, vs. industry’s -1% yoy and SMGR’s -5% yoy.Bag ASP showed improvement across SMGR's and INTP’s products; yet, as Merdeka is still priced relatively low, risk of price war lingers.Maintain Neutral rating on the sector, with INTP as our top pick; the availability and pricing of Semen Merdeka is the key factor to watch.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement: Divergence Between SMGR and INTP Sales Volumes in Aug24

<ul><li>Industry sales vol grew robustly by 14.1% mom in Jul-24, with SMGR domestic vol grew 8% mom and INTP vol expanded by 23% mom. </li><li>Pricing was relatively stable in Jul-24, yet we observe slight pressure in Aug-24 by SMGR, driven by lower Semen Merdeka pricing.</li><li>We think 1%-2% vol growth is achievable, but fighting brand ASP might become a risk. Maintain Neutral call on sector with INTP as top pick.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Industry sales vol grew robustly by 14.1% mom in Jul-24, with SMGR domestic vol grew 8% mom and INTP vol expanded by 23% mom. Pricing was relatively stable in Jul-24, yet we observe slight pressure in Aug-24 by SMGR, driven by lower Semen Merdeka pricing.We think 1%-2% vol growth is achievable, but fighting brand ASP might become a risk. Maintain Neutral call on sector with INTP as top pick.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement: Jul24 Sales: Strong 14% Mom Vol Growth, but Risk from Fighting Brand Pricing of Merdeka

Indonesia

PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk manufactures cement including portland cement, oil well cement, and mixed cement. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops and operates an industrial estate, mines limestone and clay, and packages and distributes cement.

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Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ)

Semen Indonesia - A Better Optimism Following the May24 Price Hikes

SMGR’s management reaffirmed its ~3% vol growth target and 1% higher ASP in FY24F, seeing IKN as the LT demand driver. ASP is expected to improve...

BRI Danareksa Research

PT Semen Indonesia Tbk (SMGR IJ) - Facing Challenges Head-On

SMGR recorded a revenue of IDR8.4tn in 1Q24, marking a contraction of -6.3% YoY (vs IDR8.9tn in FY22) and reflecting 21.3%/20.8% of MNCS/Consensus...

MNC Sekuritas

Cement: 3Q24 Preview: Expanding Volume, Stabilizing ASP

We expect SMGR/ INTP 9M24F to reach 47%/63% of our estimate vs. 72%/65% seasonality, hence potential miss for SMGR but inline for INTP.

BRI Danareksa Research

Cement: Divergence Between SMGR and INTP Sales Volumes in Aug24

INTP's sales vol continued to outperform with a 3.5% yoy growth (exGrobogan) in Aug24, vs. industry’s -1% yoy and SMGR’s -5% yoy.

BRI Danareksa Research

Cement: Jul24 Sales: Strong 14% Mom Vol Growth, but Risk from Fighting Brand Pricing of Merdeka

Industry sales vol grew robustly by 14.1% mom in Jul-24, with SMGR domestic vol grew 8% mom and INTP vol expanded by 23% mom.

BRI Danareksa Research

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