Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Disco guidance possibly showing front loading ahead of a potentially far bleaker 2Q.</li>
<li>US homebuilders strong after DR Horton reported strong GPM despite cutting guidance.</li>
<li>Trump re-raising the possibility of fees for Chinese vessels at US ports may be positive for non-Chinese ship builders.</li>
</ul>


Disco guidance possibly showing front loading ahead of a potentially far bleaker 2Q.
US homebuilders strong after DR Horton reported strong GPM despite cutting guidance.
Trump re-raising the possibility of fees for Chinese vessels at US ports may be positive for non-Chinese ship builders.


Japan Morning Connection: TSMC Fails to Hold Early Gains While Semi-Cap Plays Also Sag

<ul>
<li>Widespread weakness in tech/AI related plays after US curbs H20 exports setting a dour tone for JP SPE.</li>
<li>The US looking to suspend the SLR rule for Treasuries could see yields drop as banks do the work of the Fed.</li>
<li>HF's zeroed in Suzuki secondary sparks squeeze and biggest volumes of the year.</li>
</ul>


Widespread weakness in tech/AI related plays after US curbs H20 exports setting a dour tone for JP SPE.
The US looking to suspend the SLR rule for Treasuries could see yields drop as banks do the work of the Fed.
HF's zeroed in Suzuki secondary sparks squeeze and biggest volumes of the year.


Japan Morning Connection: Tech and AI Set to Drop on New NVDA Export Curbs

<ul>
<li>Big drops for futures and commodity markets to start the week, so expect heavy selling across the board to start.</li>
<li>Vietnam signalling willingness to cut US tariffs sending related footwear/clothing names who manufacture in country sharply higher.</li>
<li>Nintendo cancelling its US Switch2 pre-sales sending ADR's lower only to snap back as market remains bullish on new console.</li>
</ul>


Big drops for futures and commodity markets to start the week, so expect heavy selling across the board to start.
Vietnam signalling willingness to cut US tariffs sending related footwear/clothing names who manufacture in country sharply higher.
Nintendo cancelling its US Switch2 pre-sales sending ADR's lower only to snap back as market remains bullish on new console.


Japan Morning Connection: Trump Panic Tactic Working Hook, Line, and Sinker

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daihatsu-diesel-mfg-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12455:1" rel="noopener">Daihatsu Diesel Mfg (6023 JP)</a> is down sharply today - much more than indices - as autos/tech fall on US auto tariffs. There may be some GPIF unwinds as well. </li>
<li>A reminder: Despite the name, Daihatsu Diesel is not an auto name, is growing, has a big order book, and minimal direct exposure to the US. </li>
<li>The Tender settles today. The 8% overhang from Tendered-But-Unsold Shares is an opportunity, not a burden, at 7.2x ex-cash PER.</li>
</ul>



Daihatsu Diesel Mfg (6023 JP) is down sharply today - much more than indices - as autos/tech fall on US auto tariffs. There may be some GPIF unwinds as well. 
A reminder: Despite the name, Daihatsu Diesel is not an auto name, is growing, has a big order book, and minimal direct exposure to the US. 
The Tender settles today. The 8% overhang from Tendered-But-Unsold Shares is an opportunity, not a burden, at 7.2x ex-cash PER.


Daihatsu Diesel (6023) - Is Not Directly Auto-Tariff-Related

<ul>
<li>In late January, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daihatsu-diesel-mfg-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12455:1" rel="noopener">Daihatsu Diesel Mfg (6023 JP)</a> announced its once/former parent would sell all its shares; in part to a private company in the industry and a 20% buyback.</li>
<li>The buyback - a below-market own-share tender offer - was priced low enough to be a big win. Accretion added to that. </li>
<li>Buyback Tender Results and External Changes signal overhang and opportunity. Either way, it's cheap, but good governance could make it even cheaper.</li>
</ul>


In late January, Daihatsu Diesel Mfg (6023 JP) announced its once/former parent would sell all its shares; in part to a private company in the industry and a 20% buyback.
The buyback - a below-market own-share tender offer - was priced low enough to be a big win. Accretion added to that. 
Buyback Tender Results and External Changes signal overhang and opportunity. Either way, it's cheap, but good governance could make it even cheaper.


Daihatsu Diesel (6023) Buyback Tender Results Signal Overhang and Opportunity

Japan

Sekisui House, Ltd. builds and sells steel-frame and wooden housings. The Company constructs single-family houses, condominiums, and apartment buildings.  Sekisui House also operates real estate brokerage and leasing businesses.  Additionally, the Company sells construction materials.

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Sekisui House (1928 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: TSMC Fails to Hold Early Gains While Semi-Cap Plays Also Sag

Disco may suffer from tough 2Q with AI spending nearing its peak, US homebuilders up after strong beat from DR Horton, Trump's fees on Chinese...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Tech and AI Set to Drop on New NVDA Export Curbs

Tech and AI weakness after H20 chipset restrictions, discussion of dropping the SLR rule for Treasuries may cause volatility for financials,...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Panic Tactic Working Hook, Line, and Sinker

Futures and commodity markets drop, Vietnam related names up after they showed willingless to cut US tariffs, Nintendo cancels Switch2 pre-sales...

Andrew Jackson

Daihatsu Diesel (6023) Buyback Tender Results Signal Overhang and Opportunity

The Daihatsu Diesel tender offer is complete. There has been a pop on the idea of a US tax break for ship building which probably means little, but...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: TSMC Fails to Hold Early Gains While Semi-Cap Plays Also Sag

​Disco may suffer from tough 2Q with AI spending nearing its peak, US homebuilders up after strong beat from DR Horton, Trump's fees on Chinese...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Tech and AI Set to Drop on New NVDA Export Curbs

Tech and AI weakness after H20 chipset restrictions, discussion of dropping the SLR rule for Treasuries may cause volatility for financials,...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Panic Tactic Working Hook, Line, and Sinker

​Futures and commodity markets drop, Vietnam related names up after they showed willingless to cut US tariffs, Nintendo cancels Switch2 pre-sales...

Andrew Jackson

Daihatsu Diesel (6023) - Is Not Directly Auto-Tariff-Related

Daihatsu Diesel is cheap. Tariffs, GPIF selling, and name association may be making it cheaper. This stock is worth sitting on, buying more, etc....

Travis Lundy

Daihatsu Diesel (6023) Buyback Tender Results Signal Overhang and Opportunity

The Daihatsu Diesel tender offer is complete. There has been a pop on the idea of a US tax break for ship building which probably means little, but...

Travis Lundy

Disco may suffer from tough 2Q with AI spending nearing its peak, US homebuilders up after strong beat from DR Horton, Trump's fees on Chinese...

Futures and commodity markets drop, Vietnam related names up after they showed willingless to cut US tariffs, Nintendo cancels Switch2 pre-sales...