Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings</a> Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank</a> ended with SBI getting 47.77%, and tender offer pro-ration at 100%. Either someone big, or a lot of people stayed away.</li>
<li>Friday saw Murakami-san's City Index Elevens entity file an amended Large Shareholder Filing saying they owned zero shares. So it turns out he tendered everything, and float is elsewhere.</li>
<li>The reaction post-tender Monday indicated someone was wrong. The reaction Tuesday/Wednesday indicated others did. Thursday/Friday index selldowns were flat to Tender Price. Now we have a new, somewhat unexpected conundrum.</li>
</ul>


The SBI Holdings Tender Offer for Shinsei Bank ended with SBI getting 47.77%, and tender offer pro-ration at 100%. Either someone big, or a lot of people stayed away.
Friday saw Murakami-san's City Index Elevens entity file an amended Large Shareholder Filing saying they owned zero shares. So it turns out he tendered everything, and float is elsewhere.
The reaction post-tender Monday indicated someone was wrong. The reaction Tuesday/Wednesday indicated others did. Thursday/Friday index selldowns were flat to Tender Price. Now we have a new, somewhat unexpected conundrum.


Shinsei Bank (8303) - Now We Know Where the Float Is And It Is NOT In Murakami-San's Hands

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, raised around US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>As per Yano Research, it had 40% market share in the domestic BNPL market for B2C transactions.</li>
<li>In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, raised around US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO.
As per Yano Research, it had 40% market share in the domestic BNPL market for B2C transactions.
In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.


Net Protections IPO Trading - Peers Have Moved Lower. Provides the Only Exposure to BNPL in Japan

<ul>
<li>The SBI Tender obtained 56.92mm shares out of 58.21mm shares max. Pro-ration was 100% and SBI now owns 47.77%. </li>
<li>The data suggests Murakami-related holders tendered at least some of their shares. Real World Float (RWF) at the end of the coming week will be ~15-16% of TSO less Treasury.</li>
<li>Now we have a back-end and future squeeze-out trade which will be coloured by SBI taking control, "fair value" valuations, and the possibility of a pre-squeezeout squeeze of RWF.</li>
</ul>


The SBI Tender obtained 56.92mm shares out of 58.21mm shares max. Pro-ration was 100% and SBI now owns 47.77%. 
The data suggests Murakami-related holders tendered at least some of their shares. Real World Float (RWF) at the end of the coming week will be ~15-16% of TSO less Treasury.
Now we have a back-end and future squeeze-out trade which will be coloured by SBI taking control, "fair value" valuations, and the possibility of a pre-squeezeout squeeze of RWF.


SBI Tender on Shinsei Successful. Goes to 47.77%. The BIG Question Is... Who Owns The Float?

<ul>
<li>Overnight, NHK and Nikkei reported that the Deposit Insurance Corporation of Japan is leaning towards voting AGAINST the Poison Pill in the Shinsei EGM Thursday.</li>
<li>Given SBI has 20.32% of the vote and the DICJ has 23.31%, that would make passage of the Poison Pill defence more likely to fail. </li>
<li>Investors should be looking at what could happen if the vote fails. </li>
</ul>


Overnight, NHK and Nikkei reported that the Deposit Insurance Corporation of Japan is leaning towards voting AGAINST the Poison Pill in the Shinsei EGM Thursday.
Given SBI has 20.32% of the vote and the DICJ has 23.31%, that would make passage of the Poison Pill defence more likely to fail. 
Investors should be looking at what could happen if the vote fails. 


Shinsei EGM:  Govt May Vote AGAINST But Could Shinsei Rig The Vote?

<ul>
<li>The Deposit Insurance Corporation of Japan, which owns 23.3% of voting rights in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> asked both SBI and Shinsei to provide answers to questions by 12 November</li>
<li>They both did on Friday and the answers were curiously lacklustre. If one of the two 'won' it may have been SBI. But we don't know what DICJ will do.</li>
<li>In other news, Shinsei reported results and a famous activist announced a 5+% stake.</li>
</ul>


The Deposit Insurance Corporation of Japan, which owns 23.3% of voting rights in Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) asked both SBI and Shinsei to provide answers to questions by 12 November
They both did on Friday and the answers were curiously lacklustre. If one of the two 'won' it may have been SBI. But we don't know what DICJ will do.
In other news, Shinsei reported results and a famous activist announced a 5+% stake.


SBI and Shinsei Responses to the DICJ and an Activist Joins the Party

Japan

SBI Holdings, Inc. manages venture capital fund which mainly invest in Internet related venture companies.  The Company also provides brokerage, investment banking, and financial services.

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SBI Holdings (8473 JP)

Shinsei Bank (8303) - Now We Know Where the Float Is And It Is NOT In Murakami-San's Hands

SBI got 47.77% of Shinsei in the TOB. The question was how much Murakami-san tendered. The answer? Everything. This was a surprise to me and...

Travis Lundy

Net Protections IPO Trading - Peers Have Moved Lower. Provides the Only Exposure to BNPL in Japan

Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, raised around US$570m in its Japan IPO. In this note, we will talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

SBI Tender on Shinsei Successful. Goes to 47.77%. The BIG Question Is... Who Owns The Float?

The SBI TOB for Shinsei is done. They got to 47.77%; pro-ration was 100%. 3.5% of shares out traded Thurs-Fri and Murakami-san likely tendered some...

Travis Lundy

Shinsei EGM: Govt May Vote AGAINST But Could Shinsei Rig The Vote?

The news overnight (on what is a national holiday) is that the DICJ is leaning towards "not voting FOR" the Shinsei Poison Pill. That doesn't mean...

Travis Lundy

SBI and Shinsei Responses to the DICJ and an Activist Joins the Party

SBI & Shinsei both responded to the DICJ's questions, and curiously both come up with similar March 2025 profit expectations. It's not clear how...

Travis Lundy

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