Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There has been a lot of positive talk about Singapore's reopening but also an equal number of skeptics. </li>
<li>Companies covered are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sats-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19962:1" rel="noopener">SATS (SATS SP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-airlines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:74:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)</a>, and retail REITs in Singapore. </li>
<li>There is some removal of regulations that support the reopening theme such as testing removal upon landing in SG, PET efficiency for the nightlife scene,  and reduction of safe-distancing ambassadors. </li>
</ul>


There has been a lot of positive talk about Singapore's reopening but also an equal number of skeptics. 
Companies covered are SATS (SATS SP) , Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) , Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP), and retail REITs in Singapore. 
There is some removal of regulations that support the reopening theme such as testing removal upon landing in SG, PET efficiency for the nightlife scene,  and reduction of safe-distancing ambassadors. 


Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The latest announcement by the SG Multi-Task Force to further relax COVID-19 restrictions is a major positive catalyst.</li>
<li>Its hybrid taxi accounted for more than 50% of its entire fleet as of end-December 2020. It remains on track to replace all diesel taxis with hybrid models by 2023.</li>
<li>Investors will be paying a discounted valuation for the cash flow if they own <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)</a> compared to its peers which trades at a much higher EV/EBITDA.</li>
</ul>


The latest announcement by the SG Multi-Task Force to further relax COVID-19 restrictions is a major positive catalyst.
Its hybrid taxi accounted for more than 50% of its entire fleet as of end-December 2020. It remains on track to replace all diesel taxis with hybrid models by 2023.
Investors will be paying a discounted valuation for the cash flow if they own Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP) compared to its peers which trades at a much higher EV/EBITDA.


Comfortdelgro (CD): Restriction Easing, Green And Low EV/EBITDA.

As vaccination rate has gradually inched up higher and the Singapore government has taken a bold step to re-open the economy including bringing back foreign talents leading to a higher population and, therefore, higher revenue for public transport services of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)</a> , Comfordelgro stock looks quite promising. 
Comfortdelgro's share price has underperformed the Singapore national carrier by a wide margin when the latter was trading at below book value. Now that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-airlines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:74:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)</a> is trading at book value, there may not be much short-term upside left, and even if there is, it means its PER will be quite high which will make Comfortdelgro (at 24x PER) looks relatively cheaper.

As vaccination rate has gradually inched up higher and the Singapore government has taken a bold step to re-open the economy including bringing back foreign talents leading to a higher population and, therefore, higher revenue for public transport services of Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP) , Comfordelgro stock looks quite promising. 
Comfortdelgro's share price has underperformed the Singapore national carrier by a wide margin when the latter was trading at below book value. Now that Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) is trading at book value, there may not be much short-term upside left, and even if there is, it means its PER will be quite high which will make Comfortdelgro (at 24x PER) looks relatively cheaper. 

Thailand has found out an interesting mix of vaccines that is so far safe with a number of Thai as clinical trials that led the government to regain its confidence in the country's reopening. The company's share price has lagged the Thai Index by around 12% and it is currently trading at 7% PBR to its 5 years historical PBR. The downside may come from the slow down in the vaccination drive and also from the potential of further virus mutataion. Nonetheless, Thailand is recovering from the COVID-19 as herd immunity in China is expected to be achieved by end of this year thus a potential for a revenue increment in the next year.

Thailand has found out an interesting mix of vaccines that is so far safe with a number of Thai as clinical trials that led the government to regain its confidence in the country's reopening. The company's share price has lagged the Thai Index by around 12% and it is currently trading at 7% PBR to its 5 years historical PBR. The downside may come from the slow down in the vaccination drive and also from the potential of further virus mutataion. Nonetheless, Thailand is recovering from the COVID-19 as herd immunity in China is expected to be achieved by end of this year thus a potential for a revenue increment in the next year. 

Indonesia's recovery from the COVID-19 induced pandemic is within a few months away as the inoculation rate in Jakarta has reached 57%, although the rest of the nation's inoculation rate is still at 15%.  
While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blue-bird-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19482:1" rel="noopener">Blue Bird (BIRD IJ)</a> previously suffered from the Airport Express that took the former's market share in that route, the recent collaboration with PT KAI (National Train of Indonesia) allows Bluebird taxis to be included when customers are booking train tickets, creating a new distribution channel for Bluebird besides its existing partnership with Gojek. 
The downside of owning Bluebird's share right now is quite limited as the mobility lockdown is only months from over thus owning Bluebird right now can be likened to have a long position on a call option. Its share price should trade at least at book value or even higher at 1.2x PBR, implying a potential return of between 76% to 126%.

Indonesia's recovery from the COVID-19 induced pandemic is within a few months away as the inoculation rate in Jakarta has reached 57%, although the rest of the nation's inoculation rate is still at 15%.  
While Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) previously suffered from the Airport Express that took the former's market share in that route, the recent collaboration with PT KAI (National Train of Indonesia) allows Bluebird taxis to be included when customers are booking train tickets, creating a new distribution channel for Bluebird besides its existing partnership with Gojek. 
The downside of owning Bluebird's share right now is quite limited as the mobility lockdown is only months from over thus owning Bluebird right now can be likened to have a long position on a call option. Its share price should trade at least at book value or even higher at 1.2x PBR, implying a potential return of between 76% to 126%. 

Blue Bird (BIRD): New Distribution Channel and Limited Downside.

Singapore

SATS Limited provides integrated ground handling and in-flight catering services at Singapore Changi Airport.  The Company also provides aviation security, airline laundry, and airport cargo delivery management services.

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SATS (SATS SP)

Singapore Travel: Back to Live!

The reopening in Singapore is real and nearer to the pre-COVID-19 condition or back to normalcy. Tourism-related names such as SATS, SIA,...

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Comfortdelgro (CD): Restriction Easing, Green And Low EV/EBITDA.

On track to becoming greener as it just bought100 BYD, and its hybrid taxi is 50% of the total. Restriction of easing will benefit Comfortdelgro...

Henry Soediarko

Comfortdelgro (CD): March Forward

Comfortdelgro's share price has underperformed the Singapore national carrier by a wide margin when the latter was trading at below book value.

Henry Soediarko

AOT: Thailand Reopening

Thailand is recovering from the COVID-19 as herd immunity in China is expected to be achieved by end of this year thus a potential for a revenue...

Henry Soediarko

Blue Bird (BIRD): New Distribution Channel and Limited Downside.

Blue Bird (suffered from the Airport Express that took the former's market share, the recent collaboration with PT KAI allows Bluebird taxis to be...

Henry Soediarko

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