Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chugai’s in-house drug, Actemra is recommended by the WHO for the treatment of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. In-licensed drug Ronapreve is approved for the treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19 patients.</li>
<li>Actemra and Ronapreve together are expected to contribute 29% of total revenue in 2021. Approval of oral COVID-19 anti-viral pill will pressurize both the drugs in 2022 and beyond.</li>
<li>Chugai’s recently in-licensed gene therapy drug candidate for Duchenne muscular dystrophy will have to compete with existing drug and other pipeline candidates in Japan.  </li>
</ul>


Chugai’s in-house drug, Actemra is recommended by the WHO for the treatment of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. In-licensed drug Ronapreve is approved for the treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19 patients.
Actemra and Ronapreve together are expected to contribute 29% of total revenue in 2021. Approval of oral COVID-19 anti-viral pill will pressurize both the drugs in 2022 and beyond.
Chugai’s recently in-licensed gene therapy drug candidate for Duchenne muscular dystrophy will have to compete with existing drug and other pipeline candidates in Japan.  


Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Actemra Loses Its Sheen on Arrival of Oral COVID-19 Pill

<ul>
<li>By succeeding to launch at least one distinctive product each year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-shinyaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6634:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP)</a> increased both revenue and operating profit for nine fiscal years in a row.</li>
<li>The company’s new drug Viltepso, targeting 8% of Duchenne muscular dystrophy patient population has an estimated peak sale of more than $400 million.  </li>
<li>By FY24, the company plans to launch one new in-house drug for myelofibrosis, which is preparing to go for phase 2 trial.</li>
</ul>


By succeeding to launch at least one distinctive product each year, Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP) increased both revenue and operating profit for nine fiscal years in a row.
The company’s new drug Viltepso, targeting 8% of Duchenne muscular dystrophy patient population has an estimated peak sale of more than $400 million.  
By FY24, the company plans to launch one new in-house drug for myelofibrosis, which is preparing to go for phase 2 trial.


Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): New Drugs and Rich Pipeline Enhance Conviction on Future Growth

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

With the S&amp;P 500 breaking above the June highs and the Russell 2000 bullishly inflecting topside a ~1-month base, it signals a continuation of the uptrends that began in March... see charts below. Therefore, we continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care and Materials: Biotech, Large-Cap, Biotech, Mid-Cap, Gold, Western Hemisphere, Small-Cap, and Silver, Platinum.

With the S&amp;P 500 breaking above the June highs and the Russell 2000 bullishly inflecting topside a ~1-month base, it signals a continuation of the uptrends that began in March... see charts below. Therefore, we continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care and Materials: Biotech, Large-Cap, Biotech, Mid-Cap, Gold, Western Hemisphere, Small-Cap, and Silver, Platinum.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

The S&amp;P 500 is beginning to come off of short-term overbought extremes, consolidating near the confluence of key overhead resistance and the 200-day moving average. This level is roughly 2,817 on the S&amp;P 500 and roughly 1,000 on the S&amp;P 600 Small Cap index. Some consolidation or a mild pullback is possible in the near-term, which we believe would help alleviate current overbought readings and allow for a more orderly and meaningful move higher.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, and Services Sectors.

The S&amp;P 500 is beginning to come off of short-term overbought extremes, consolidating near the confluence of key overhead resistance and the 200-day moving average. This level is roughly 2,817 on the S&amp;P 500 and roughly 1,000 on the S&amp;P 600 Small Cap index. Some consolidation or a mild pullback is possible in the near-term, which we believe would help alleviate current overbought readings and allow for a more orderly and meaningful move higher.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, and Services Sectors.

S&P 500 and S&P 600 Testing Resistance...Still

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Cyclical indicators are softening this month - new orders index for the Philly Fed fell nearly 23 points while Japan’s PMI new export orders component fell for the first time in 22mths to sub 50.</li>
<li>A sustained tariff war and its unpredictable impact on highly integrated global supply chains as with Daimler’s profit warning last week is now generating downside volatility.</li>
<li>The 20% slump in mainland shares from recent highs has been less about trade war fears as deteriorating liquidity, reflected in…</li>
</ul>


Cyclical indicators are softening this month - new orders index for the Philly Fed fell nearly 23 points while Japan’s PMI new export orders component fell for the first time in 22mths to sub 50.
A sustained tariff war and its unpredictable impact on highly integrated global supply chains as with Daimler’s profit warning last week is now generating downside volatility.
The 20% slump in mainland shares from recent highs has been less about trade war fears as deteriorating liquidity, reflected in…


Trade Risks Start to Impact, as China Biotech Ambitions Grow…

United States

Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery and development of unique RNA-based therapeutics for the treatment of both rare and infectious diseases. The Company offers its products to the medical industry in countries around the world.

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Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT US)

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Actemra Loses Its Sheen on Arrival of Oral COVID-19 Pill

Chugai's COVID-19 drugs do not seem to be stack up well against the newly approved oral COVID-19 drugs in 2022 and beyond. The company has already...

Tina Banerjee

Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): New Drugs and Rich Pipeline Enhance Conviction on Future Growth

During FY20–FY24, Nippon Shinyaku plans to launch two new in-house drugs and three in-licenses drugs. Indication expansion of existing key drugs...

Tina Banerjee

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

With the S&P 500 breaking above the June highs and the Russell 2000 bullishly inflecting topside a ~1-month base, it signals a continuation of...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 and S&P 600 Testing Resistance...Still

The S&P 500 is beginning to come off of short-term overbought extremes, consolidating near the confluence of key overhead resistance and the...

Vermilion Research

Trade Risks Start to Impact, as China Biotech Ambitions Grow…

Cyclical indicators are softening this month - new orders index for the Philly Fed fell nearly 23 points while Japan’s PMI new export orders...

Sean Maher

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