Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

Seoul Guarantee Insurance / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is target price of 48,052 won which is within the IPO price range of 39,500 won to 51,800 won. </li>
<li>Given the lack of upside relative to the IPO price range, we have a negative view of this deal. </li>
<li>We are not impressed with the company's lack of top-line sales growth and worsening operating profit in 2023. The valuation range as proposed by the bankers is also not attractive. </li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is target price of 48,052 won which is within the IPO price range of 39,500 won to 51,800 won. 
Given the lack of upside relative to the IPO price range, we have a negative view of this deal. 
We are not impressed with the company's lack of top-line sales growth and worsening operating profit in 2023. The valuation range as proposed by the bankers is also not attractive. 


Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO Valuation Analysis

<ul>
<li>Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in the next several weeks. The IPO price range is from 39,500 won to 51,800 won. </li>
<li>Market cap is from 2.8 trillion won to 3.6 trillion won. At the high end of the IPO price range, this could be the biggest IPO in Korea in 2023.</li>
<li>Many investors will be skeptical on the bankers including two overseas comps (Travelers and Coface) which have much higher valuations.</li>
</ul>


Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in the next several weeks. The IPO price range is from 39,500 won to 51,800 won. 
Market cap is from 2.8 trillion won to 3.6 trillion won. At the high end of the IPO price range, this could be the biggest IPO in Korea in 2023.
Many investors will be skeptical on the bankers including two overseas comps (Travelers and Coface) which have much higher valuations.


Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO Preview

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.</li>
<li>We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in <em>Int’l Compass</em> and <em>ETF Pathfinder</em> reports throughout 2023.</li>
<li>Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.
We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.
Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.


EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>NPS adjusted holdings of 101 stocks in Korea as of 5 April 2023, of which it reduced ownership in 53 of them and raised ownership in 47 of them.</li>
<li>In this insight, we discuss 39 stocks major stocks in Korea which have experienced changes in their ownerships by the NPS in the past several weeks. </li>
<li>NPS has noticeably increased stakes in reopening related plays and it has also reduced stakes in numerous rechargeable battery related plays in the past several weeks. </li>
</ul>


NPS adjusted holdings of 101 stocks in Korea as of 5 April 2023, of which it reduced ownership in 53 of them and raised ownership in 47 of them.
In this insight, we discuss 39 stocks major stocks in Korea which have experienced changes in their ownerships by the NPS in the past several weeks. 
NPS has noticeably increased stakes in reopening related plays and it has also reduced stakes in numerous rechargeable battery related plays in the past several weeks. 


Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Samsung FN REIT announced its IPO book building results. The IPO price was determined at 5,000 won per share. The demand ratio was 24.88 to 1. </li>
<li>The core investment thesis of Samsung FN REIT is that it is the only publicly listed Samsung affiliate that provides REIT services.</li>
<li>It is a stable business with excellent locations for its existing properties and the company is expected to provide 5.6% annual dividend yield in the next three years.</li>
</ul>


Samsung FN REIT announced its IPO book building results. The IPO price was determined at 5,000 won per share. The demand ratio was 24.88 to 1. 
The core investment thesis of Samsung FN REIT is that it is the only publicly listed Samsung affiliate that provides REIT services.
It is a stable business with excellent locations for its existing properties and the company is expected to provide 5.6% annual dividend yield in the next three years.


South Korea

Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co., Ltd. provides insurance services. The Company offers auto, fire, marine, casualty, health, leisure, and retirement products and services. Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance serves customers in South Korea.

Samsung Fire & Marine Insuranc (000815 KS)

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Samsung Fire & Marine Insuranc (000815 KS)

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO Valuation Analysis

Seoul Guarantee Insurance's IPO price range is not attractive due to lack of upside, lack of sales growth, and worsening operating profit in 2023.

Douglas Kim

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO Preview

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in the next several weeks. At the high end of the IPO price range,...

Douglas Kim

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

Recent NPS Buys and Sells in Korea

In this insight, we discuss 39 stocks major stocks in Korea which have experienced changes in their ownerships by the NPS in the past several weeks.

Douglas Kim

Samsung FN REIT: Book Building Results

Samsung FN REIT announced its IPO book building results. The core investment thesis of Samsung FN REIT is that it is the only publicly listed...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO Valuation Analysis

​Seoul Guarantee Insurance's IPO price range is not attractive due to lack of upside, lack of sales growth, and worsening operating profit in 2023.

Douglas Kim

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO Preview

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in the next several weeks. At the high end of the IPO price range,...

Douglas Kim

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

Recent NPS Buys and Sells in Korea

In this insight, we discuss 39 stocks major stocks in Korea which have experienced changes in their ownerships by the NPS in the past several weeks.

Douglas Kim

Samsung FN REIT: Book Building Results

Samsung FN REIT announced its IPO book building results. The core investment thesis of Samsung FN REIT is that it is the only publicly listed...

Douglas Kim

Seoul Guarantee Insurance's IPO price range is not attractive due to lack of upside, lack of sales growth, and worsening operating profit in 2023.