Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With ~2x exposure to memory compared to its peers, LRCX is feeling the pain</li>
<li>Q1 revenues of  $3.87 billion were marginally higher than the forecasted midpoint, down 26.7% sequentially and down 4.4% YoY.</li>
<li>For the current quarter, LRCX expects revenues to decline a further ~ 20% to $3.1 billion at the midpoint.</li>
</ul>


With ~2x exposure to memory compared to its peers, LRCX is feeling the pain
Q1 revenues of  $3.87 billion were marginally higher than the forecasted midpoint, down 26.7% sequentially and down 4.4% YoY.
For the current quarter, LRCX expects revenues to decline a further ~ 20% to $3.1 billion at the midpoint.


Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On 20 April, Chile's government announced that it will be nationalizing the country's lithium industry. Chile is the second largest producer of lithium in the world. </li>
<li>The nationalization of the lithium industry in Chile will likely have a long-term negative impact on the rechargeable batteries related companies in Korea.</li>
<li>This is mainly due to greater challenges of getting access to lithium at more affordable prices. </li>
</ul>


On 20 April, Chile's government announced that it will be nationalizing the country's lithium industry. Chile is the second largest producer of lithium in the world. 
The nationalization of the lithium industry in Chile will likely have a long-term negative impact on the rechargeable batteries related companies in Korea.
This is mainly due to greater challenges of getting access to lithium at more affordable prices. 


Nationalization of Lithium Industry in Chile - Impact on Korean Rechargeable Batteries Value Chain

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 2Q 2023.</li>
<li>Of the 38 pair trades, 21 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos YTD and 17 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.</li>
<li>We highlight 38 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 2Q 2023.
Of the 38 pair trades, 21 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos YTD and 17 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.
We highlight 38 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 2Q 2023

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) is by far the most dominant stock holding among active EM investors.</li>
<li>TSMC is owned by 87.5% of EM funds with an average weight of 6.1%, it is also the largest portfolio holding for 64.5% of managers.  </li>
<li>Despite high levels of positioning, there are no obvious signs that managers are scaling back positions. The risk of not holding TSMC may be greater than playing the contrarian.</li>
</ul>


Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) is by far the most dominant stock holding among active EM investors.
TSMC is owned by 87.5% of EM funds with an average weight of 6.1%, it is also the largest portfolio holding for 64.5% of managers.  
Despite high levels of positioning, there are no obvious signs that managers are scaling back positions. The risk of not holding TSMC may be greater than playing the contrarian.


Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

<ul>
<li>The three companies we write about this week are <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-techn-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL (A) (300750 CH)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kimberly-clark-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2292:1" rel="noopener">Kimberly Clark (KMB US)</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackberry-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25472:1" rel="noopener">BlackBerry Ltd (BB CN)</a></strong> </li>
<li>For the twenty-one weeks since inception ended 14 April the combined innovation portfolio was +3.6%, versus DJIA +0.4%, S&amp;P500 +4.3%, Nasdaq +8.8%, Russell2000 -3.7%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF +6.2%, all in US$ terms</li>
<li>For the same period the small cap innovation portfolio was up +5.9%, the mid cap portfolio was up +4.4% and the large cap portfolio was up +3.4%</li>
</ul>


The three companies we write about this week are CATL (A) (300750 CH) , Kimberly Clark (KMB US) and BlackBerry Ltd (BB CN) 
For the twenty-one weeks since inception ended 14 April the combined innovation portfolio was +3.6%, versus DJIA +0.4%, S&amp;P500 +4.3%, Nasdaq +8.8%, Russell2000 -3.7%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF +6.2%, all in US$ terms
For the same period the small cap innovation portfolio was up +5.9%, the mid cap portfolio was up +4.4% and the large cap portfolio was up +3.4%


The Innovations Portfolios - Week Twenty One

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)

LRCX. Memory Bites. Hard

With ~2x exposure to memory compared to its peers, LRCX is feeling the pain.Q1 revenues of $3.87 billion were -26.7% sequentially and -4.4% YoY....

William Keating

Nationalization of Lithium Industry in Chile - Impact on Korean Rechargeable Batteries Value Chain

The nationalization of the lithium industry in Chile will likely have a long-term negative impact on the rechargeable batteries related companies...

Douglas Kim

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 2Q 2023

In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 2Q 2023. We highlight 38 pair trades that...

Douglas Kim

TSMC: Crowded Trade?

Active EM managers are heavily positioned in TSMC. It is the largest portfolio holding for 64.6% of the funds in our analysis. But is the risk of...

Steven Holden

The Innovations Portfolios - Week Twenty One

For the twenty-one weeks since inception ended 14 April the innovation small cap portfolio was up 5.9%, mid cap portfolio was up 4.4% and the large...

Pyari Menon

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