Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>9.4% semi revenue decline in 2023 seems about right to us</li>
<li>Forecast of13.1% semi revenue increase in 2024, seems on the high side</li>
<li>Forecast assumes a ~45% YoY increase in memory revenue. Sanjay will be delighted to hear the good news!</li>
</ul>


9.4% semi revenue decline in 2023 seems about right to us
Forecast of13.1% semi revenue increase in 2024, seems on the high side
Forecast assumes a ~45% YoY increase in memory revenue. Sanjay will be delighted to hear the good news!


WSTS Forecasts Semi Revenue Increase of 13.1% In 2024. Seriously?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.</li>
<li>Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16</li>
<li>We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology</li>
</ul>


In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.
Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16
We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology


Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Improving outlook with Q1F24 revenue forecast slightly above the high end of the guided range</li>
<li>2024 is being positioned as a "recovery year", helping reset investor expectations about the nature and speed of the recovery</li>
<li>Micron's share price typically rallies strongest into record revenue years. 2024 will not be a record revenue year. As such, we think the present rally is premature. </li>
</ul>


Improving outlook with Q1F24 revenue forecast slightly above the high end of the guided range
2024 is being positioned as a "recovery year", helping reset investor expectations about the nature and speed of the recovery
Micron's share price typically rallies strongest into record revenue years. 2024 will not be a record revenue year. As such, we think the present rally is premature. 


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Wacom splits its pen-tablet business into "Branded Business" and "Technology Solutions" which is not dissimilar to simply splitting based on customer type. TS is doing well. BB is not.</li>
<li>But BB is doing better than it was, which means a rebound in profit this year. After Q2 there is new guidance, probably soft. And there is a BIG buyback.</li>
<li>The buyback is large enough to take notice, even though practically it will be smaller than the headline. And a read of the MTMP "Wacom Chapter 3" is highly recommended.</li>
</ul>


Wacom splits its pen-tablet business into "Branded Business" and "Technology Solutions" which is not dissimilar to simply splitting based on customer type. TS is doing well. BB is not.
But BB is doing better than it was, which means a rebound in profit this year. After Q2 there is new guidance, probably soft. And there is a BIG buyback.
The buyback is large enough to take notice, even though practically it will be smaller than the headline. And a read of the MTMP "Wacom Chapter 3" is highly recommended.


Wacom (6727 JP) - Large, Short-Dated, On-Market Buyback Against Dense Register

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Leader Energy Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/leader-energy-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39938:1" rel="noopener">Leader Energy Holdings (1814173D MK)</a> is looking to raise up to US$215m in its upcoming Malaysia IPO. </li>
<li>Leader Energy Holdings (LE) is an independent power producer (IPP) primarily engaged in the development, ownership, O&amp;M of power assets and projects.</li>
<li>LE’s revenue has grown on the back of higher power generation as well as coal price increases over the track record period, which drove profitability up. </li>
</ul>



Leader Energy Holdings (1814173D MK) is looking to raise up to US$215m in its upcoming Malaysia IPO. 
Leader Energy Holdings (LE) is an independent power producer (IPP) primarily engaged in the development, ownership, O&amp;M of power assets and projects.
LE’s revenue has grown on the back of higher power generation as well as coal price increases over the track record period, which drove profitability up. 


Leader Energy Holdings Pre-IPO - Still Too Early for an ESG Angle

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (SMSN LI)

WSTS Forecasts Semi Revenue Increase of 13.1% In 2024. Seriously?

WSTS forecast for 13.1% semi growth in 2024 assumes a ~45% YoY increase in memory revenue. This is an unlikely scenario and not at all the vibe we...

William Keating

Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Our bullish outlook on global equities $ACWI remains intact. We are also upgrading Brazil $EWZ to overweight. We continue to expect a rally into...

Vermilion Research

Micron. The Rally Is Premature

Micron's share price typically rallies strongest into record revenue years. 2024 will not be a record revenue year. As such, we think the present...

William Keating

Wacom (6727 JP) - Large, Short-Dated, On-Market Buyback Against Dense Register

The stock popped on the early November earnings/buyback news, then fell back. This is still a BIG buyback in a dense register. And there is another...

Travis Lundy

Leader Energy Holdings Pre-IPO - Still Too Early for an ESG Angle

Leader Energy Holdings (1814173D MK) is looking to raise up to US$215m in its upcoming Malaysia IPO. LE’s revenue has grown on the back of higher...

Ethan Aw

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