Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A key medium-term driver of share price is earnings estimate trajectory - in particular, "earnings inflections" - i.e. the trajectory of earnings estimates changing directions. </li>
<li>Different Asian markets have had different estimate trajectories. But most suffered estimate cuts since August/September 2024, coinciding with the US Dollar appreciation and the spike in US yields.</li>
<li>We argue that investors need to watch out for Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia and India for earnings estimate increases. India's could decline in the near term and commence an uptrend later. </li>
</ul>


A key medium-term driver of share price is earnings estimate trajectory - in particular, "earnings inflections" - i.e. the trajectory of earnings estimates changing directions. 
Different Asian markets have had different estimate trajectories. But most suffered estimate cuts since August/September 2024, coinciding with the US Dollar appreciation and the spike in US yields.
We argue that investors need to watch out for Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia and India for earnings estimate increases. India's could decline in the near term and commence an uptrend later. 


Asian Equities: In Search of Earnings Estimate Uptrends

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

Hon Hai Precision Industry / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>LGD plans to invest $1B to expand OLED module production in Vietnam, signaling a commitment to growth in the technology sector.</li><li>Wolfspeed makes a bold move by firing CEO in response to slowdown in the electric vehicle industry, showing a willingness to adapt to market changes.</li><li>MiTAC introduces AIoT innovations for smarter cities and transportation, demonstrating a focus on advancing technology for the future.</li></ul>

LGD plans to invest $1B to expand OLED module production in Vietnam, signaling a commitment to growth in the technology sector.Wolfspeed makes a bold move by firing CEO in response to slowdown in the electric vehicle industry, showing a willingness to adapt to market changes.MiTAC introduces AIoT innovations for smarter cities and transportation, demonstrating a focus on advancing technology for the future.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (20-Nov-2024): LGD invests $1B in Vietnam OLED production.

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan remain key underweights.  Recovery in Malaysia, Thailand, Turkey, and South Africa, correction in Indonesia and Mexico. Developed Markets the largest overweight for EM investors.</li>
<li>Discretionary, Staples, and Industrials the key overweights, Materials and Energy the underweights. Rotation out of Tech moves positioning from overweight to underweight for the first time since 2019.</li>
<li>Ownership climbs for Meituan and SK Hynix, Baidu and Yum China see sharp declines. Downtrends persist in Vale, Telkom Indonesia.  Recovery in SK Telekom, Garanti Bank, highs in Emaar Properties. </li>
</ul>


China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan remain key underweights.  Recovery in Malaysia, Thailand, Turkey, and South Africa, correction in Indonesia and Mexico. Developed Markets the largest overweight for EM investors.
Discretionary, Staples, and Industrials the key overweights, Materials and Energy the underweights. Rotation out of Tech moves positioning from overweight to underweight for the first time since 2019.
Ownership climbs for Meituan and SK Hynix, Baidu and Yum China see sharp declines. Downtrends persist in Vale, Telkom Indonesia.  Recovery in SK Telekom, Garanti Bank, highs in Emaar Properties. 


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Nov 15th which has an aggregated holding worth USD468.9bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD937mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Naver, Samsung Electronics.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Nov 15th which has an aggregated holding worth USD468.9bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD937mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Naver, Samsung Electronics.


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 15th): Naver, Samsung Electronics

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC: more restrictions on export to China. TSMC can’t make 2nm in US before 2028-29. Lawsuit in Arizona.</li>
<li>Korea: special chips act to give chipmakers subsidies and an exemption from a national cap on working hours. Korean engineers only work 52 hours / week. That’s a problem.</li>
<li>Amazon more in-house AI chips. Super Micro trying to avoid delisting. Smartphone ASP keep increasing because chip prices are increasing (ie Mediatek, Qualcomm). AI PC reaching 20% in 3Q214. </li>
</ul>


TSMC: more restrictions on export to China. TSMC can’t make 2nm in US before 2028-29. Lawsuit in Arizona.
Korea: special chips act to give chipmakers subsidies and an exemption from a national cap on working hours. Korean engineers only work 52 hours / week. That’s a problem.
Amazon more in-house AI chips. Super Micro trying to avoid delisting. Smartphone ASP keep increasing because chip prices are increasing (ie Mediatek, Qualcomm). AI PC reaching 20% in 3Q214. 


Tech News This Week: TSMC, Samsung, Amazon / Nvidia, Super Micro, Smartphone ASP Increasing, AI PC

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (SMSD LI)

Asian Equities: In Search of Earnings Estimate Uptrends

Earnings estimate trajectory, especially "earnings inflection," are key drivers of share price in Asian markets. We see potential uptrends in...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (20-Nov-2024): LGD invests $1B in Vietnam OLED production.

Companies such as LGD, MiTAC, Micron, and Foxconn make strategic moves in AI, IoT, and chip production while Samsung and YMTC Zhitai compete in the...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Active GEM Funds: Positioning Chart Pack

In this chart pack, we highlight the key country, sector and stock exposures among active Emerging Markets equity funds.

Steven Holden

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 15th): Naver, Samsung Electronics

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Naver, Samsung Electronics.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tech News This Week: TSMC, Samsung, Amazon / Nvidia, Super Micro, Smartphone ASP Increasing, AI PC

TSMC faces export restrictions to China. Korea offers subsidies to chipmakers, but faces labor issue. Amazon ramps up AI chip production. Chip...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asian Equities: In Search of Earnings Estimate Uptrends

​Earnings estimate trajectory, especially "earnings inflection," are key drivers of share price in Asian markets. We see potential uptrends in...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (20-Nov-2024): LGD invests $1B in Vietnam OLED production.

Companies such as LGD, MiTAC, Micron, and Foxconn make strategic moves in AI, IoT, and chip production while Samsung and YMTC Zhitai compete in the...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Active GEM Funds: Positioning Chart Pack

In this chart pack, we highlight the key country, sector and stock exposures among active Emerging Markets equity funds.

Steven Holden

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 15th): Naver, Samsung Electronics

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Naver, Samsung Electronics.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tech News This Week: TSMC, Samsung, Amazon / Nvidia, Super Micro, Smartphone ASP Increasing, AI PC

​TSMC faces export restrictions to China. Korea offers subsidies to chipmakers, but faces labor issue. Amazon ramps up AI chip production. Chip...

Nicolas Baratte

Earnings estimate trajectory, especially "earnings inflection," are key drivers of share price in Asian markets. We see potential uptrends in...

TSMC faces export restrictions to China. Korea offers subsidies to chipmakers, but faces labor issue. Amazon ramps up AI chip production. Chip...