'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">The current 'crop' of results and revisions announcements have yet to generate much to cheer about. For yesterday's 75 results the average TTM revenue decline is 8% and operating margins have declined by 4 percentage points year-on-year. 25% of the companies are still in the red for the quarter. Our best and worst pair for the day is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sakata-seed-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9825:1" rel="noopener">Sakata Seed (1377 JP)</a> and eyewear retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jins-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12002:1" rel="noopener">JINS (3046 JP)</a>.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/182/339/original/2021-01-14_06-42-35.png?1610574169" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="182339"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/182/340/original/2021-01-14_06-44-07.png?1610574261" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="182340"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics.</div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •The current 'crop' of results and revisions announcements have yet to generate much to cheer about. For yesterday's 75 results the average TTM revenue decline is 8% and operating margins have declined by 4 percentage points year-on-year. 25% of the companies are still in the red for the quarter. Our best and worst pair for the day is Sakata Seed (1377 JP) and eyewear retailer JINS (3046 JP).Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​​​13 JINS, Pasona, Sakata Seed

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• LEADING INDICATOR •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/164/379/original/2020-10-10_12-16-59.png?1602299856" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="164379"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>LEADING THE WAY</strong> - The market continues to make new post-COVID highs supported by global and local liquidity conditions and now a bottoming of earnings momentum. As was the case in 2009, the Cabinet Office Leading Indicator, which is published with a lag of two months, identified the low point ahead of the market and our Results &amp; Revision Score. At present, only three Sectors - Internet Content &amp; Services, Information Technology, and Non-Bank Finance have positive Scores, of which only the first and last are rising. We expect the coming 'wave' of announcements to turn the tide as has been 'previewed' in the percentages of positive results and revision over the last week.    </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/164/382/original/2020-10-10_12-48-29.png?1602301755" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="164382"></figure><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>The best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sakata-seed-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9825:1" rel="noopener">Sakata Seed (1377 JP)</a>  and dental, surgical and ophthalmic instrument maker <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mani-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6534:1" rel="noopener">Mani (7730 JP)</a>. the latter despite the company's very bullish fully-year forecast. </p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/164/515/original/2020-10-11_11-27-17.png?1602383275" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="164515"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/164/516/original/2020-10-11_11-30-09.png?1602383437" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="164516"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>26 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 58% Positive / 10% Neutral / 32% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> +2.2 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> +2.1% Quarter YoY / -4.5% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.9ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 18%</p></li>
</ul></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>32 Annual • 12 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 41% Positive / 6% Neutral / 53% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 42% Positive / 8% Neutral / 50% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -2.1 point</p></li>
</ul></div>
</div>

• LEADING INDICATOR •Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsLEADING THE WAY - The market continues to make new post-COVID highs supported by global and local liquidity conditions and now a bottoming of earnings momentum. As was the case in 2009, the Cabinet Office Leading Indicator, which is published with a lag of two months, identified the low point ahead of the market and our Results &amp; Revision Score. At present, only three Sectors - Internet Content &amp; Services, Information Technology, and Non-Bank Finance have positive Scores, of which only the first and last are rising. We expect the coming 'wave' of announcements to turn the tide as has been 'previewed' in the percentages of positive results and revision over the last week.    • BEST &amp; WORST •
The best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is Sakata Seed (1377 JP)  and dental, surgical and ophthalmic instrument maker Mani (7730 JP). the latter despite the company's very bullish fully-year forecast. 
Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics
DAILY STATS

26 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 58% Positive / 10% Neutral / 32% Negative
Average Results Score Change: +2.2 points
Average % Change in Revenue: +2.1% Quarter YoY / -4.5% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.9ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 18%


32 Annual • 12 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 41% Positive / 6% Neutral / 53% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 42% Positive / 8% Neutral / 50% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -2.1 point



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​09 - Yaskawa, MANI, OSG, JINS, Sakata Seed

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/930/original/2020-07-14_08-06-05.png?1594681580" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145930"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/928/original/2020-07-14_07-58-53.png?1594681168" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145928"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/create-sd-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12945:1" rel="noopener">Create SD (3148 JP)</a> -</strong> Of the larger-cap companies reporting yesterday, drugstore Create SD had the best overall Results Score, although the company is forecasting lower profits and operating margins for the current year. The zero market-implied long-term growth rate is overly conservative, and the shares have yet to reach a new Relative Price Score high, suggesting further upside.   </p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>51 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 14 Positive / 3 Neutral / 34 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -4.7</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -14.9% Quarter YoY / -2.2% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.6ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 37%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>22 Annual • 8 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 5 Positive / 3 Neutral / 14 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 4 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: </strong>-7.7</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
Create SD (3148 JP) - Of the larger-cap companies reporting yesterday, drugstore Create SD had the best overall Results Score, although the company is forecasting lower profits and operating margins for the current year. The zero market-implied long-term growth rate is overly conservative, and the shares have yet to reach a new Relative Price Score high, suggesting further upside.   
DAILY STATS
51 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 14 Positive / 3 Neutral / 34 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -4.7

Average % Change in Revenue: -14.9% Quarter YoY / -2.2% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.6ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 37%
 22 Annual • 8 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 5 Positive / 3 Neutral / 14 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 4 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -7.7


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 13th July

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Event-Driven

<p>We visited <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17345" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17345:1">Nihon Nohyaku (4997 JP)</a> ("Nichino") this week to discuss the company's longer-term strategy and gain a deeper understanding of its likely positioning within <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3122" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3122:1">Adeka Corp (4401 JP)</a> and future prospects. We came away feeling that there was significant potential for growth but that timelines could try the patience of investors.</p><ul>
<li>Nichino is particularly adept at finding applications for the compounds it develops, taking advantage of its smaller size to develop niche markets that industry majors ignore because they do not move the needle.</li>
<li>The company has a long history of serving global markets and after expanding operations in the US and Europe in FY13/14, the company has begun consolidating subsidiaries in India and Brazil, firmly turning its focus to emerging markets with significant potential.</li>
<li>China's move to allow GMO soybeans dramatically cut the company's royalty revenues which had surged thanks to Bayer leveraging Nichino's Phoenix insecticide in Brazil under the brand name Belt.</li>
<li>Nichino's success licencing Phoenix (Belt) to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26881" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26881:1">Bayer AG (BAYN GY)</a> appears to have truly whet the company's appetite for emerging markets and it is now focusing on expanding sales there - a key reason for Adeka's investment in the company is to give it the financial muscle to expand and continue R&amp;D.</li>
<li>We expect steady and possibly accelerating growth as the company develops sales in Brazil and India but the company's vision stretches out to 2025 and beyond and much of the potential growth for the company is likely to come towards the end of that time horizon.</li>
<li>Conditions appear to have bottomed and we would expect gradual increases in revenue and OP going forward and multiples are in-line with peers, but industry multiples overall are relatively inflated and could pose some downside risks.</li>
</ul><p>We present our evaluation of longer term prospects and a valuation comparison below.</p>

We visited Nihon Nohyaku (4997 JP) ("Nichino") this week to discuss the company's longer-term strategy and gain a deeper understanding of its likely positioning within Adeka Corp (4401 JP) and future prospects. We came away feeling that there was significant potential for growth but that timelines could try the patience of investors.
Nichino is particularly adept at finding applications for the compounds it develops, taking advantage of its smaller size to develop niche markets that industry majors ignore because they do not move the needle.
The company has a long history of serving global markets and after expanding operations in the US and Europe in FY13/14, the company has begun consolidating subsidiaries in India and Brazil, firmly turning its focus to emerging markets with significant potential.
China's move to allow GMO soybeans dramatically cut the company's royalty revenues which had surged thanks to Bayer leveraging Nichino's Phoenix insecticide in Brazil under the brand name Belt.
Nichino's success licencing Phoenix (Belt) to Bayer AG (BAYN GY) appears to have truly whet the company's appetite for emerging markets and it is now focusing on expanding sales there - a key reason for Adeka's investment in the company is to give it the financial muscle to expand and continue R&amp;D.
We expect steady and possibly accelerating growth as the company develops sales in Brazil and India but the company's vision stretches out to 2025 and beyond and much of the potential growth for the company is likely to come towards the end of that time horizon.
Conditions appear to have bottomed and we would expect gradual increases in revenue and OP going forward and multiples are in-line with peers, but industry multiples overall are relatively inflated and could pose some downside risks.
We present our evaluation of longer term prospects and a valuation comparison below.

Nihon Nohyaku: Adeka Offer Price Seems Full, but Longer-Term Outlook Makes Valuation Fair

Japanese and Asian equity long/short strategies

Uzabase

Specialising in Japanese and Asian equity long/short strategies with a focus on rigorous, but targeted quantitative analysis to temper evaluations of company strategy, potential and vision. At Uzabase, our team of analysts provides coverage of industry dynamics with a local Asian flavour on Speeda, our financial information platform. Going forward we are aiming to channel our focus toward thematic research on emerging industries and company research.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9825" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9825:1">Sakata Seed Corp (1377 JP)</a> announced strong 3QFY05/2017 results on the 7th of April. Since we first wrote about the company in Dec 2016 the stock has been roughly flat while Topix has declined 5%. We said at the time that "while consensus estimates have Sakata's OP for FY2018 at a possible JPY9.2bn, if conditions are favourable for the company we do not consider it unreasonable for the company to hit those numbers in FY2017." Consensus has now risen to JPY8.0bn OP for FY05/2017 and JPY9.6bn for…</p>

Sakata Seed Corp (1377 JP) announced strong 3QFY05/2017 results on the 7th of April. Since we first wrote about the company in Dec 2016 the stock has been roughly flat while Topix has declined 5%. We said at the time that "while consensus estimates have Sakata's OP for FY2018 at a possible JPY9.2bn, if conditions are favourable for the company we do not consider it unreasonable for the company to hit those numbers in FY2017." Consensus has now risen to JPY8.0bn OP for FY05/2017 and JPY9.6bn for…

Sakata Seed: Overseas Sales Continue to Drive Growth as 9M OP Hits 96% of Full Year Consensus

Japan

SAKATA SEED CORPORATION is a wholesaler of seeds, seedlings, bulbs for flowers, vegetables, and fruits.  The Company also wholesales gardening and landscaping supply and equipment.  Sakata Seed conducts research and development to improve seeds and seedlings.

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Sakata Seed (1377 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 01/13 JINS, Pasona, Sakata Seed

The current 'crop' of results and revisions announcements have yet to generate much to cheer about. For yesterday's 75 results the average TTM...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/09 - Yaskawa, MANI, OSG, JINS, Sakata Seed

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/09 - Yaskawa, MANI, OSG, JINS, Sakata Seed________________________________

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 13th July

Create SD (3148 JP) - Of the larger-cap companies reporting yesterday, drugstore Create SD had the best overall Results Score, although the...

Campbell Gunn

Nihon Nohyaku: Adeka Offer Price Seems Full, but Longer-Term Outlook Makes Valuation Fair

We visited Nihon Nohyaku (4997 JP) ("Nichino") this week to discuss the company's longer-term strategy and gain a deeper understanding of its...

Mio Kato

Sakata Seed: Overseas Sales Continue to Drive Growth as 9M OP Hits 96% of Full Year Consensus

Sakata Seed Corp (1377 JP) announced strong 3QFY05/2017 results on the 7th of April. Since we first wrote about the company in Dec 2016 the stock...

Mio Kato

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🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​​​13 JINS, Pasona, Sakata Seed

The current 'crop' of results and revisions announcements have yet to generate much to cheer about. For yesterday's 75 results the average TTM...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​09 - Yaskawa, MANI, OSG, JINS, Sakata Seed

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​09 - Yaskawa, MANI, OSG, JINS, Sakata Seed________________________________

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 13th July

Create SD (3148 JP) - Of the larger-cap companies reporting yesterday, drugstore Create SD had the best overall Results Score, although the...

Campbell Gunn

Nihon Nohyaku: Adeka Offer Price Seems Full, but Longer-Term Outlook Makes Valuation Fair

We visited Nihon Nohyaku (4997 JP) ("Nichino") this week to discuss the company's longer-term strategy and gain a deeper understanding of its...

Mio Kato

Sakata Seed: Overseas Sales Continue to Drive Growth as 9M OP Hits 96% of Full Year Consensus

Sakata Seed Corp (1377 JP) announced strong 3QFY05/2017 results on the 7th of April. Since we first wrote about the company in Dec 2016 the stock...

Mio Kato

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 01/13 JINS, Pasona, Sakata Seed

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/09 - Yaskawa, MANI, OSG, JINS, Sakata Seed

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/09 - Yaskawa, MANI, OSG, JINS, Sakata Seed________________________________