Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<p>Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe  developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership position relative to EM (MSCI EM). In this report we highlight actionable set ups within Japan, Switzerland and Australia. Within Japanese Sectors, we focus on opportunities within Technology, Financials, Health Care, and Staples. We also highlight attractive setups within European/UK Sectors, including Health Care, Industrials, Staples and Utilities<em>.</em></p>

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe  developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership position relative to EM (MSCI EM). In this report we highlight actionable set ups within Japan, Switzerland and Australia. Within Japanese Sectors, we focus on opportunities within Technology, Financials, Health Care, and Staples. We also highlight attractive setups within European/UK Sectors, including Health Care, Industrials, Staples and Utilities.

<p>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are decisively breaking above 1-month resistance on US-China trade war optimism, incrementally improving the technical picture. While there is some room to move higher in the near-term, we are hesitant to get too excited because several major indexes have additional hurdles to jump. We highlight important technical levels across major averages including Europe/UK (STOXX 600), Hong Kong (Hang Seng), Japan (TOPIX), and several EM countries (China, Brazil, Russia, Taiwan, and India).  Finally, we highlight attractive opportunities within the Consumer Discretionary, Heath Care and Services sectors.</p>

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are decisively breaking above 1-month resistance on US-China trade war optimism, incrementally improving the technical picture. While there is some room to move higher in the near-term, we are hesitant to get too excited because several major indexes have additional hurdles to jump. We highlight important technical levels across major averages including Europe/UK (STOXX 600), Hong Kong (Hang Seng), Japan (TOPIX), and several EM countries (China, Brazil, Russia, Taiwan, and India).  Finally, we highlight attractive opportunities within the Consumer Discretionary, Heath Care and Services sectors.

<p>Heightened trade tensions have caused global equities to move from resistance to support in a matter of days. Additional consolidation - i.e., no breakdowns - on the broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remains the most likely scenario. At the same time, new cracks are beginning to show and as a result we believe global equities are vulnerable to a breakdown.  Along with a recap of important technical levels across major markets, we flip through several attractive Groups and stocks within Advertising, retail, restaurants, and travel, which offer attractive pullback opportunities.</p>

Heightened trade tensions have caused global equities to move from resistance to support in a matter of days. Additional consolidation - i.e., no breakdowns - on the broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remains the most likely scenario. At the same time, new cracks are beginning to show and as a result we believe global equities are vulnerable to a breakdown.  Along with a recap of important technical levels across major markets, we flip through several attractive Groups and stocks within Advertising, retail, restaurants, and travel, which offer attractive pullback opportunities.

Global Equity Strategy: Another Test of Support

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Chacko Jacob

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14630" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14630:1">Yoshinoya Holdings (9861 JP)</a> is the second largest chain of beef bowl restaurants in Japan after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4586" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4586:1">Zensho Holdings (7550 JP)</a> (Sukiya). The company has adopted a number of strategies in recent years to diversify its offerings and expand its overseas base. We look at some of these strategies and offer our outlook on the company. And since we already cover Zensho, we also provide our pick between the two.</p>

Yoshinoya Holdings (9861 JP) is the second largest chain of beef bowl restaurants in Japan after Zensho Holdings (7550 JP) (Sukiya). The company has adopted a number of strategies in recent years to diversify its offerings and expand its overseas base. We look at some of these strategies and offer our outlook on the company. And since we already cover Zensho, we also provide our pick between the two.

Yoshinoya (9861 JP): Poor Returns From Overseas Investments Obscure Changes to Menu and Kitchen Tech

<h2><strong>Company Background</strong></h2>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4586" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4586:1">Zensho Holdings Co Ltd (7550 JP)</a> is the largest restaurant chain company in Japan with 19 brands spread across 5,000 locations. Zensho’s flagship chain Sukiya, which is also Japan’s leading gyudon (beef rice bowl) chain, operates 24hrs a day, 365 days a year. Aside from gyudons, the company’s other brands serve up udon, hamburger steaks, yakiniku and sushi, to name a few.</p>
<div class="content-caption"><strong>Sales Composition in Percentage</strong></div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/056/794/original/z1.png?1530670125" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="56794"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Company</div>
<p>Zensho was incorporated in June 1982 and opened its first…</p>

Company Background
Zensho Holdings Co Ltd (7550 JP) is the largest restaurant chain company in Japan with 19 brands spread across 5,000 locations. Zensho’s flagship chain Sukiya, which is also Japan’s leading gyudon (beef rice bowl) chain, operates 24hrs a day, 365 days a year. Aside from gyudons, the company’s other brands serve up udon, hamburger steaks, yakiniku and sushi, to name a few.
Sales Composition in Percentage

Source: Company
Zensho was incorporated in June 1982 and opened its first…

In the Land of Japanese Beef Bowls Zensho Could Be "Don"

Japan

RESORTTRUST, INC. plans, develops, markets, and operates timeshare resort hotels under the "XIV" and "SUN MEMBERS" brand name.  The Company's resort facilities are located in the suburb of major Japanese cities.  Resorttrust operates golf courses.

ROUND ONE Corporation operates bowling alleys and video game arcades.  The Company operates primarily in the Osaka area.

TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation operates a variety of restaurants such as skewered grill chicken, Japanese noodle, ramen noodle, Japanese-style pancake, and pasta restaurants.  The Company operates its business at food courts in shopping centers, stations, highway rest areas, and suburbs.

create restaurants holdings inc. operates direct-run Western, Chinese, and Japanese restaurants.  The Company also operates fast food restaurants.

create restaurants holdings inc. (3387 JP)

KYORITSU MAINTENANCE CO., LTD operates student dormitories and dormitories for young businessmen throughout Japan.  The Company builds condominiums and dormitories.

Food & Life Companies Limited operates sushi restaurant chains. The Company operates kaiten sushi stores and restaurants, sushi takeout, sushi bars with snacks, and more. Food & Life Companies serves customers worldwide.

FUJI KYUKO CO., LTD. provides passenger rail and bus transportation and taxi services in Shizuoka, Yamanashi, and Kanagawa prefectures.  The Company leases and sells real estate, operates department store, and offers construction works. Fuji Kyuko also operates amusement parks, hotels, golf course, skiing ground, restaurants, and other leisure-related businesses.

ICHIBANYA CO., LTD. operates a chain of restaurants specialized in curry dishes nationwide.  The Company operates both franchise and directly managed restaurants.  The Company also sells its curry by mail order.

COLOWIDE CO., LTD. manages, as a holding company, its group companies that operate Japanese style pub restaurant chain named Kantaro and Italian restaurant chain named Itameshiya La Pausa primarily in Tokyo.  The Company also operates KARAOKE business.

OHSHO FOOD SERVICE CORP is a Kansai-based operator of Chinese restaurants.  The Company operates directly-run restaurants in Kansai, Chubu, and Kanto regions. Ohsho Food Service also wholesales food material to franchise stores.  The Company mainly sells noodle and gyoza dumpling.

Domino's Pizza Enterprises Limited is a franchise licence owner of the Domino's Pizza. The Company sits in the quick service restaurant segment within fast food retail and has a license which covers Australia, New Zealand, France, Belgium, The Netherlands and the Principality of Monaco. The Domino's brand is owned by Domino's Pizza, Inc, a listed US company.

SJM Holdings Limited offers amusement and recreation services.  The Company operates casinos, hotels, and other tourism-related facilities in Macau.

NagaCorp Limited is a leisure and tourism company with casino operations in Phnom Penh, the capital city of Cambodia. The Company also offers hotel accommodation, manages food and beverage outlets, recreational facilities, entertainmentand retail operations.

Hotel Properties Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates and manages hotels. The Company also operates restaurants and retails and distributes food and fashion merchandise.  In addition, Hotel Properties trades shares, develops and invests in properties, hotels, and resorts.

Kangwon Land Inc. is a casino and hotel services provider located in the Kangwon province area of South Korea.  The Company develops abandoned mines and builds gaming and entertainment facilities.  Kangwon Land operates a number of game tables and slot machines for domestic and international customers under its gaming licenses.

BTG Hotels (Group) Co., Ltd. operates a tourism business.  The Company also invests in hotel and restaurant management, as well as provides advertising and exhibition center management services.

Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd invests in and manages theme parks in China.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, also provides travel agency service.

Shenzhen Overseas Chinese (A) (000069 CH)

Westlife Development Limited is an operating-cum-investment company that puts up and operates quick service restaurants. The Company, through its subsidiary, operates fast food franchise restaurants across western and southern India.

Bloomin' Brands Inc. owns and operates a chain of casual dining restaurants. The Company offers its products and services through company owned and franchised locations throughout the United States and internationally.

Bloomberry Resorts Corp is a holding company for its subsidiaries which provide lodging and leisure services. The Subsidiaries operates and develops, tourist facilities, casinos, and hotel and amusement-themed projects.

SAIZERIYA CO., LTD. operates an Italian restaurant chain based in the Tokyo metropolitan area.  The Company's menu includes pizza, pasta, seafood, and meat entrees.

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Saizeriya (7581 JP)

Developed Markets Opportunities

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Guarded Optimism

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are decisively breaking above 1-month resistance on US-China trade war optimism, incrementally improving the technical...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Another Test of Support

Heightened trade tensions have caused global equities to move from resistance to support in a matter of days. Additional consolidation - i.e., no...

Vermilion Research

Yoshinoya (9861 JP): Poor Returns From Overseas Investments Obscure Changes to Menu and Kitchen Tech

Yoshinoya Holdings (9861 JP) is the second largest chain of beef bowl restaurants in Japan after Zensho Holdings (7550 JP) (Sukiya). The company...

Chacko Jacob

In the Land of Japanese Beef Bowls Zensho Could Be "Don"

Company Background Zensho Holdings Co Ltd (7550 JP) is the largest restaurant chain company in Japan with 19 brands spread across 5,000 locations....

Chacko Jacob

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