Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li> In August the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a very depressed level of 111.5, well under the threshold of 116 indicating consumers are in a state of panic.</li>
<li>A large part of the weakness stems from severe flooding (the worst since 1998) in northern and central China. It is estimated that floods have resulted in $33 billion in losses.</li>
<li>We believe that weakness seen in the CSI during August is the result of panic among consumers in reaction to the flood and not a reflection of…</li>
</ul>


 In August the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a very depressed level of 111.5, well under the threshold of 116 indicating consumers are in a state of panic.
A large part of the weakness stems from severe flooding (the worst since 1998) in northern and central China. It is estimated that floods have resulted in $33 billion in losses.
We believe that weakness seen in the CSI during August is the result of panic among consumers in reaction to the flood and not a reflection of…


China Consumer Sentiment Drops in August As Flood Causes Panic - Actual Impact Insignificant

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

The recent spate Chinese data released, seems to be promising due to the slow growth and relative decline in the real economic growth. This phenomenon owes much of the credit to the government’s credit injection into the economy and its subsequent tightening. Nevertheless, official retail sales data for July seems to be projecting the shift of consumer spending depicting the change in consumer choice.The total retail sales of consumer goods in July remained steady at 2,682. Although this…

The recent spate Chinese data released, seems to be promising due to the slow growth and relative decline in the real economic growth. This phenomenon owes much of the credit to the government’s credit injection into the economy and its subsequent tightening. Nevertheless, official retail sales data for July seems to be projecting the shift of consumer spending depicting the change in consumer choice.The total retail sales of consumer goods in July remained steady at 2,682. Although this…

Retail Sales in China Outside Headline Numbers Remain Weak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

The weekly data from SouFun-CREIS survey on new home sales in 35 major cities for the four weeks August 1 - 28 (Weeks 32-35) shows a further, though a gradual, slowdown in sales volume growth, bringing year-to-date year-on-year change from 35.5% for the Weeks 1-30 to 32.1% for the Weeks 1-35). On a 4-week rolling year-on-year basis, however, the growth was 15.9% for Weeks 32-35, compared to 9.4% for Weeks 28-31.The official data for national sales volumes for August will be published on…

The weekly data from SouFun-CREIS survey on new home sales in 35 major cities for the four weeks August 1 - 28 (Weeks 32-35) shows a further, though a gradual, slowdown in sales volume growth, bringing year-to-date year-on-year change from 35.5% for the Weeks 1-30 to 32.1% for the Weeks 1-35). On a 4-week rolling year-on-year basis, however, the growth was 15.9% for Weeks 32-35, compared to 9.4% for Weeks 28-31.The official data for national sales volumes for August will be published on…

Weekly China Property Data For August Points At Further Gradual Slowdown In National Sales Growth

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

This Summer we visited over a dozen premium handbag stores in New York City and Honolulu in order to better understand the issues facing Coach and its peers in the evolving luxury retail space. We learned that an apparent change in spending habits by Asian visitors to North America, combined with ongoing weakness in Japan, Hong Kong, and Macau, will likely limit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13644" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13644:1">Coach Inc (COH US)</a> revenue growth in FY17 (June 2017) and FY18, making consensus Sales and EPS targets difficult to meet. Longer term, a growing reliance on US outlet stores and a push into smaller Tier-3 and Tier-4 cities in China may undermine the Coach brand. We believe our conclusions – mostly negative – have implications not only for Coach and its premium handbag peers, but also for any luxury retail brand that relies heavily on Asian tourism and consumption for growth.

This Summer we visited over a dozen premium handbag stores in New York City and Honolulu in order to better understand the issues facing Coach and its peers in the evolving luxury retail space. We learned that an apparent change in spending habits by Asian visitors to North America, combined with ongoing weakness in Japan, Hong Kong, and Macau, will likely limit Coach Inc (COH US) revenue growth in FY17 (June 2017) and FY18, making consensus Sales and EPS targets difficult to meet. Longer term, a growing reliance on US outlet stores and a push into smaller Tier-3 and Tier-4 cities in China may undermine the Coach brand. We believe our conclusions – mostly negative – have implications not only for Coach and its premium handbag peers, but also for any luxury retail brand that relies heavily on Asian tourism and consumption for growth.

Summer (Mis-)Adventures in Luxury Retail: Why to Avoid Coach (6388:HK / COH:US) For Now

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

In-bound tourism to China appears to be in decline, albeit slowly. At the same time, foreign travel by Chinese residents has grown rapidly, driven partly by the search for cheap luxury goods and partly by the increasingly numbers of young travelers.

In-bound tourism to China appears to be in decline, albeit slowly. At the same time, foreign travel by Chinese residents has grown rapidly, driven partly by the search for cheap luxury goods and partly by the increasingly numbers of young travelers. 

China

SAIC Motor Corporation Ltd., through joint ventures, manufactures and markets automobiles and related parts and accessories.

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SAIC Motor (600104 CH)

China Consumer Sentiment Drops in August As Flood Causes Panic - Actual Impact Insignificant

In August the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a very depressed level of 111.5, well under the threshold of 116 indicating...

David Riedel

Retail Sales in China Outside Headline Numbers Remain Weak

The recent spate Chinese data released, seems to be promising due to the slow growth and relative decline in the real economic growth. This...

Christopher Balding

Weekly China Property Data For August Points At Further Gradual Slowdown In National Sales Growth

The weekly data from SouFun-CREIS survey on new home sales in 35 major cities for the four weeks August 1 - 28 (Weeks 32-35) shows a further,...

Robert Ciemniak

Summer (Mis-)Adventures in Luxury Retail: Why to Avoid Coach (6388:HK / COH:US) For Now

This Summer we visited over a dozen premium handbag stores in New York City and Honolulu in order to better understand the issues facing Coach and...

Daniel Hellberg

Tourism Trends and China

In-bound tourism to China appears to be in decline, albeit slowly. At the same time, foreign travel by Chinese residents has grown rapidly, driven...

Bixmoor

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