High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Looking back, March 2023 presented a significant “wobble” to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy tightening campaign as the sudden bank failures, the largest since the 2008 financial crisis, of Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank in particular, caused the Fed to step in as customers rushed to withdraw their deposits while these banks did not have enough liquid funds on hand to satisfy those customers’ cash requirements.</li><li>One reason for these bank failures was that normally safe investments in U.S. Treasuries, purchased at the highs, began losing money due to their duration mismatch as interest rates were rapidly increased by the Federal Reserve.</li><li>In came the Fed’s BTFP program to the rescue which was setup to eliminate a financial institution’s need to rapidly sell securities, and is open to federally insured banks, savings associations, and credit unions, as well as the U.S. branches of foreign banks.</li></ul>

Looking back, March 2023 presented a significant “wobble” to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy tightening campaign as the sudden bank failures, the largest since the 2008 financial crisis, of Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank in particular, caused the Fed to step in as customers rushed to withdraw their deposits while these banks did not have enough liquid funds on hand to satisfy those customers’ cash requirements.One reason for these bank failures was that normally safe investments in U.S. Treasuries, purchased at the highs, began losing money due to their duration mismatch as interest rates were rapidly increased by the Federal Reserve.In came the Fed’s BTFP program to the rescue which was setup to eliminate a financial institution’s need to rapidly sell securities, and is open to federally insured banks, savings associations, and credit unions, as well as the U.S. branches of foreign banks.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Select Medical Holdings / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are starting to see some positive signals that suggest the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that additional downside is limited from here.</li>
<li>We need to see downtrend reversals (get above 4030-4040 on SPX, $189 on IWM, and $115 on IWC) and for the NDX(QQQ) to break above $315, to get more constructive.</li>
<li>Positive signals include, among other things: the Financial Sector (XLF) and Broker-Dealers/Exchanges ETF (IAI) are reversing topside their 4-5-month downtrends.</li>
</ul>


We are starting to see some positive signals that suggest the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that additional downside is limited from here.
We need to see downtrend reversals (get above 4030-4040 on SPX, $189 on IWM, and $115 on IWC) and for the NDX(QQQ) to break above $315, to get more constructive.
Positive signals include, among other things: the Financial Sector (XLF) and Broker-Dealers/Exchanges ETF (IAI) are reversing topside their 4-5-month downtrends.


Downgrading Utilities & Staples to Market Weight; Buy Ideas in Health Care & Trucking

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

We continue to believe we are nearing the end of the "mixed market environment," and the beginning of a new, broad-based bull market advance. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts for small-caps (IWM) and Industrials (XLI) in order to turn bullish. Additionally, we would like to see MSCI China (MCHI) break above $74 resistance; this would be a major boon for risk sentiment.Charts highlighted: Russell 2000 (IWM), SOXX, XTN, GLD vs. SPY, TNX, S&amp;P 500, AMD, MRVL, XLNX, STM, MPWR, ON, ENPH, SEDG, FSLR, RUN, SPWR, CSIQ, SOL, ODFL, JBHT, KNX, LSTR, SAIA, SNDR, ARCB, MRTN, PTSI, YELL, and USAK

We continue to believe we are nearing the end of the "mixed market environment," and the beginning of a new, broad-based bull market advance. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts for small-caps (IWM) and Industrials (XLI) in order to turn bullish. Additionally, we would like to see MSCI China (MCHI) break above $74 resistance; this would be a major boon for risk sentiment.Charts highlighted: Russell 2000 (IWM), SOXX, XTN, GLD vs. SPY, TNX, S&amp;P 500, AMD, MRVL, XLNX, STM, MPWR, ON, ENPH, SEDG, FSLR, RUN, SPWR, CSIQ, SOL, ODFL, JBHT, KNX, LSTR, SAIA, SNDR, ARCB, MRTN, PTSI, YELL, and USAK

U.S. Equity Strategy: All Eyes On The Small Cap Russell 2000. Buying Semiconductors, Solar, Truckers

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research, AlphaSituations

Robert Sassoon

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research

AlphaSituations

Since its establishment, AlphaSituations has delivered a track record of outperformance with a hit rate of winners of more than 70% of its portfolio of ideas generating annualized average returns of 20%. In January 2022, AlphaSituations was contracted by Water Tower Research, an investor engagement and stakeholder communication platform to provide coverage of Special Situations

Event-Driven

Back on January 5, 2021, we published an insight highlighting the proposed break-up of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpo-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12017:1" rel="noopener">Xpo Logistics (XPO US) </a>- SpinTalk: Multiple Envy Propels XPO Logistics' Break-Up Move To Get Its Mojo Back - via the separation of its logistics operations from its transportation business. This corporate event is now just a few days away and will be executed via  the tax-free spin-off of the logistics business GXO Logistics (GXO US) on August 2, 2021, effected through a 1-for-1 distribution of new GXO shares to XPO shareholders. With the separating companies having begun When-Issued trading as of July 22, 2021,  we believe this to be an opportune to review and update our value assessment of the upcoming  event. On a pre-spin basis , our updated assessment values  XPO at $163-$197, not too far from our first stab of $169-$186 made in January. This represents  an increase of 16% to 40% on the prevailing share price of $141.03,  which itself represents an 19% accretion from the $118.92 price printed in our January insight. However, with only one trading left before the separation becomes effective, the focus should be on the post-spin entities when they begin trading regular on Monday. While the XPO share price has reacted well to the break-up strategy, we believe there is still more value to be had in both sides of the spin-off as we lay out our thesis below.

Back on January 5, 2021, we published an insight highlighting the proposed break-up of Xpo Logistics (XPO US) - SpinTalk: Multiple Envy Propels XPO Logistics' Break-Up Move To Get Its Mojo Back - via the separation of its logistics operations from its transportation business. This corporate event is now just a few days away and will be executed via  the tax-free spin-off of the logistics business GXO Logistics (GXO US) on August 2, 2021, effected through a 1-for-1 distribution of new GXO shares to XPO shareholders. With the separating companies having begun When-Issued trading as of July 22, 2021,  we believe this to be an opportune to review and update our value assessment of the upcoming  event. On a pre-spin basis , our updated assessment values  XPO at $163-$197, not too far from our first stab of $169-$186 made in January. This represents  an increase of 16% to 40% on the prevailing share price of $141.03,  which itself represents an 19% accretion from the $118.92 price printed in our January insight. However, with only one trading left before the separation becomes effective, the focus should be on the post-spin entities when they begin trading regular on Monday. While the XPO share price has reacted well to the break-up strategy, we believe there is still more value to be had in both sides of the spin-off as we lay out our thesis below.

SpinTalk: More Value To Be Had In Now Imminent XPO Logistics Break-Up

Last week we noted some deterioration in market dynamics, all while reiterating our overall constructive outlook looking weeks and months ahead. The fact is, “perfectly bullish” conditions rarely exist, and a weight of the evidence approach is necessary. To that end, the positives continue to outweigh the negatives and our outlook remains constructive.

Last week we noted some deterioration in market dynamics, all while reiterating our overall constructive outlook looking weeks and months ahead. The fact is, “perfectly bullish” conditions rarely exist, and a weight of the evidence approach is necessary. To that end, the positives continue to outweigh the negatives and our outlook remains constructive.

United States

Saia, Inc. provides trucking transportation to the retail, petrochemical, and manufacturing industries.  The Company offers regional, interregional, and national less-than-truckload services, and selected truckload services across the United States.

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Saia Inc (SAIA US)

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 12/18

Looking back, March 2023 presented a significant “wobble” to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy tightening campaign as the sudden bank...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Downgrading Utilities & Staples to Market Weight; Buy Ideas in Health Care & Trucking

Positive developments are popping up, such as bullish reversals of 4-5-month downtrends for Financials $XLF and Broker-Dealers/Exchanges $IAI ....

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: All Eyes On The Small Cap Russell 2000. Buying Semiconductors, Solar, Truckers

The PHLX Semiconductor index (SOXX) and the equal-weighted Transportation Sector (XTN) are the latest cyclical areas to break out to new YTD...

Vermilion Research

SpinTalk: More Value To Be Had In Now Imminent XPO Logistics Break-Up

XPO may have got its mojo back since first announcing the possible break-up of the company in early 2020, but with the break-up now imminent, we...

Robert Sassoon

Breakaway Gaps In Place

Market dynamics are not perfect, but the fact is that “perfectly bullish” conditions rarely exist. The positives continue to outweigh the negatives...

Vermilion Research

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