Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

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<p>How long can the US's extraordinary manufacturing boom, which we have been in the vanguard of highlighting, continue? The answer will, in turn, determine how long can global risk in general and cyclical stocks in particular continue to charge ahead as they done in the first few days of 2018?</p>
<p>Both in terms of duration and amplitude the US economy's surge is already approaching historical limits. ISM's near 40-year high reached back in September is almost certainly the cyclical peak, reached 21…</p>
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How long can the US's extraordinary manufacturing boom, which we have been in the vanguard of highlighting, continue? The answer will, in turn, determine how long can global risk in general and cyclical stocks in particular continue to charge ahead as they done in the first few days of 2018?
Both in terms of duration and amplitude the US economy's surge is already approaching historical limits. ISM's near 40-year high reached back in September is almost certainly the cyclical peak, reached 21…


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Both Energy and Materials have hurriedly advanced within our relative strength rankings over the past several weeks--now ranking #2 and #4, respectively--confirming the widespread patterns visible in the charts of each Sector’s constituents: bottoms and bases.</p><p>We have highlighted these evolving set-ups over the past year, identifying: improving internals in energy (Aug. 12), then labeling it as a bottom the following week; also, reiterating copper nearly twelve months ago from today, recommending fertilizers (Dec. 13), and reiterating metals &amp; mining stocks (Dec. 18).</p><p>Given the improving relative strength trends coupled with constructive patterns, we are upgrading both sectors to overweight from market weight.</p>

Both Energy and Materials have hurriedly advanced within our relative strength rankings over the past several weeks--now ranking #2 and #4, respectively--confirming the widespread patterns visible in the charts of each Sector’s constituents: bottoms and bases.We have highlighted these evolving set-ups over the past year, identifying: improving internals in energy (Aug. 12), then labeling it as a bottom the following week; also, reiterating copper nearly twelve months ago from today, recommending fertilizers (Dec. 13), and reiterating metals &amp; mining stocks (Dec. 18).Given the improving relative strength trends coupled with constructive patterns, we are upgrading both sectors to overweight from market weight.

Upgrading U.S. Energy & Materials Sectors to Overweight

<div class="content-highlight"><p>2018 promises to be another fascinating, but almost certainly more challenging year for global investors. We have identified a number of non-consensus calls - 18 of them for '18 - to help navigate the minefield.</p><p>Our first five are: </p><ul><li>global growth momentum has already peaked and will slow through the year;</li><li>the US's growth-inflation mix will deteriorate and the Philipps curve should flicker back to life;</li><li>The Federal Reserve will hike more than expected, lifting the Fed Funds rate at least three times;</li><li>the UST curve will keep flattening but 'bond market conundrum 2.0' will continue to cap longer yields;</li><li> risks to oil are heavily to the downside. A slump back below $50 per barrel could be THE story of 2018.</li></ul><p>Another 5 to follow soon. </p></div>

2018 promises to be another fascinating, but almost certainly more challenging year for global investors. We have identified a number of non-consensus calls - 18 of them for '18 - to help navigate the minefield.Our first five are: global growth momentum has already peaked and will slow through the year;the US's growth-inflation mix will deteriorate and the Philipps curve should flicker back to life;The Federal Reserve will hike more than expected, lifting the Fed Funds rate at least three times;the UST curve will keep flattening but 'bond market conundrum 2.0' will continue to cap longer yields; risks to oil are heavily to the downside. A slump back below $50 per barrel could be THE story of 2018.Another 5 to follow soon. 

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<p>The bellwether ISM manufacturing survey is, by nature, fiercely nomadic. In other words, it is always going somewhere: north or south. It almost never flatlines. And after approaching near 30-year highs this September as US manufacturing enjoys an extraordinary late(ish) cycle boom, the ISM survey therefore has only one way to go: down. The key question is how far?</p>
<p>To better answer this, we have looked at the behaviour of the ISM headline index following its last seven cyclical peaks going back…</p>
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The bellwether ISM manufacturing survey is, by nature, fiercely nomadic. In other words, it is always going somewhere: north or south. It almost never flatlines. And after approaching near 30-year highs this September as US manufacturing enjoys an extraordinary late(ish) cycle boom, the ISM survey therefore has only one way to go: down. The key question is how far?
To better answer this, we have looked at the behaviour of the ISM headline index following its last seven cyclical peaks going back…


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Msci Ac Asia Pacific Index / Technical Analysis

<p>To close out 2017 we wanted to review some of our best and worst calls for the year. Closed position return was 16.29% and current open positions are in the money by just over 6.5%. In sum we are up a respectable 22% but falls short of our 35% portfolio gain in 2016.</p><p>Our core methodology revolves around a macro top down approach with a low risk tolerance which often hits rather tight stops with a slightly higher turnover than normal for equity based funds but is more than offset by holding on to big gainers. </p><p>Let's go through some of our biggest winning and losing trades.</p>

To close out 2017 we wanted to review some of our best and worst calls for the year. Closed position return was 16.29% and current open positions are in the money by just over 6.5%. In sum we are up a respectable 22% but falls short of our 35% portfolio gain in 2016.Our core methodology revolves around a macro top down approach with a low risk tolerance which often hits rather tight stops with a slightly higher turnover than normal for equity based funds but is more than offset by holding on to big gainers. Let's go through some of our biggest winning and losing trades.

2017 Chart Based Portfolio Returns of 16% and 6%

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Chart of the Day: BOOM! 2018 Edition

How long can the US's extraordinary manufacturing boom, which we have been in the vanguard of highlighting, continue? The answer will, in turn,...

Richard Iley

Upgrading U.S. Energy & Materials Sectors to Overweight

Both Energy and Materials have hurriedly advanced within our relative strength rankings over the past several weeks--now ranking #2 and #4,...

Vermilion Research

Global: 18 For '18 - Part 1

2018 promises to be another fascinating, but almost certainly more challenging year for global investors. We have identified a number...

Richard Iley

Chart of the Day: Tuareg Economics

The bellwether ISM manufacturing survey is, by nature, fiercely nomadic. In other words, it is always going somewhere: north or south. It almost...

Richard Iley

2017 Chart Based Portfolio Returns of 16% and 6%

To close out 2017 we wanted to review some of our best and worst calls for the year. Closed position return was 16.29% and current open positions...

Thomas Schroeder