Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Technical Analysis

The final rally of this bull market is under way.  That has been signalled by the appearance of the three-month Triangle in the S&amp;P 500, and its recent break up through 2,718.  Its final target range is 2,872-3,148.  The lack of new index extremes over the past month mean that there are no new indicator signals of note, but the likelihood of new highs is at least consistent with our case that the Q1 extreme momentum marked the end of a buying climax.  The extreme Trend Strength readings at the time suggested we were seeing a mirror image of 2008, and an “upward crash”.  Just as the extreme momentum of 2008 was a precursor to new lows in 2009, so new highs would be normal now.  We remain at Hold, and traders could even buy on a dip to 2,645-2,655, but 2,585 closing is now the stop on that view.  Below there we would turn extremely bearish, looking for an extended decline to the 2016 low at 1,810 into 2019/2020.  Hopefully, we will get to make that call higher up.

The final rally of this bull market is under way.  That has been signalled by the appearance of the three-month Triangle in the S&amp;P 500, and its recent break up through 2,718.  Its final target range is 2,872-3,148.  The lack of new index extremes over the past month mean that there are no new indicator signals of note, but the likelihood of new highs is at least consistent with our case that the Q1 extreme momentum marked the end of a buying climax.  The extreme Trend Strength readings at the time suggested we were seeing a mirror image of 2008, and an “upward crash”.  Just as the extreme momentum of 2008 was a precursor to new lows in 2009, so new highs would be normal now.  We remain at Hold, and traders could even buy on a dip to 2,645-2,655, but 2,585 closing is now the stop on that view.  Below there we would turn extremely bearish, looking for an extended decline to the 2016 low at 1,810 into 2019/2020.  Hopefully, we will get to make that call higher up.

S&P 500:  Heading for a Final High at 2,872-3,148

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Overweight EM debt and the euro were two of the most consensus trades coming into the year, and I’ve been bearish - both are unravelling fast as the belated USD rally continues.</li>
<li>The Citi Global economic surprise index hit the lowest levels since Q1 2016 last week, and Europe has been a major contributor – earnings momentum is negative in Europe and EM.</li>
<li>Europe was weaker than it looked in 2017 thanks to US multinational tax arbitrage via Ireland artificially boosting net exports, helping explain…</li>
</ul>


Overweight EM debt and the euro were two of the most consensus trades coming into the year, and I’ve been bearish - both are unravelling fast as the belated USD rally continues.
The Citi Global economic surprise index hit the lowest levels since Q1 2016 last week, and Europe has been a major contributor – earnings momentum is negative in Europe and EM.
Europe was weaker than it looked in 2017 thanks to US multinational tax arbitrage via Ireland artificially boosting net exports, helping explain…


As Dollar Rebounds, EM and Europe Consensus Narrative Shaken

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

The recent successful test of support at the 200-day moving average has paved the way for a meaningful bounce higher on the S&amp;P 500. Given this bounce, we have become incrementally more bullish. In today’s report we highlight the bullish implications of the recent move higher for the broad market as well as attractive and actionable groups within the Energy Sector: EN-02 Oil &amp; Gas, Global, Large-Cap, EN-08 Oil and Gas E&amp;P, Domestic, Large-Cap, and EN-10 Oil and Gas E&amp;P, Domestic Small-Cap.

The recent successful test of support at the 200-day moving average has paved the way for a meaningful bounce higher on the S&amp;P 500. Given this bounce, we have become incrementally more bullish. In today’s report we highlight the bullish implications of the recent move higher for the broad market as well as attractive and actionable groups within the Energy Sector: EN-02 Oil &amp; Gas, Global, Large-Cap, EN-08 Oil and Gas E&amp;P, Domestic, Large-Cap, and EN-10 Oil and Gas E&amp;P, Domestic Small-Cap.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Energy Stocks

Multi-asset Macro/Emerging Markets Strategist

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.<ul class=""><li>This week in trade ideas: We pulled the trigger on two conditional trade ideas in ASEAN we introduced last week: Tactical short Malaysia equities and Strategic short Indonesia equities vs long Philippines equities, though we see more mileage in the latter. In Anzac, we would go long AUD-NZD on strong Aussie wages and after RBNZ Governor Orr's dovish debut last week. We are inclined to short Italian stocks vs Stoxx 600. </li><li>Monday: Japan machine tool orders, India CPI, ECB Lautenschlager, Malaysia reopens, US opens Jerusalem embassy</li><li>Tuesday: Germany/Norway GDP, UK jobs, EZ IP/GDP, Germany/EZ ZEW survey, US retail sales, US TIC flows, China retail/IP/FAI, Poland/Colombia GDP, Fed nominees Clarida/Bowman testify, China Vice Premier Liu He in Washington, US public hearing on China tariffs</li><li>Wednesday: Japan GDP, Australia wages, EZ CPI, US IP, Thailand BOT, Israel GDP, Poland NBP, Brazil BCB, Draghi</li><li>Thursday: Japan core machine orders, Australia jobs, Malaysia GDP, Egypt CBE, Indonesia BI, Mexico Banxico</li><li>Friday: Japan CPI, Chile GDP, Fed Brainard</li><li>Select corporate earnings: Rosneft, Nissan, Axis Bank (IN) (Mon), Home Depot, Allianz (Tue), Tencent, Cisco, Gazprom, Telecom Italia (Wed), Walmart, Lukoil (Thu)</li></ul>

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.This week in trade ideas: We pulled the trigger on two conditional trade ideas in ASEAN we introduced last week: Tactical short Malaysia equities and Strategic short Indonesia equities vs long Philippines equities, though we see more mileage in the latter. In Anzac, we would go long AUD-NZD on strong Aussie wages and after RBNZ Governor Orr's dovish debut last week. We are inclined to short Italian stocks vs Stoxx 600. Monday: Japan machine tool orders, India CPI, ECB Lautenschlager, Malaysia reopens, US opens Jerusalem embassyTuesday: Germany/Norway GDP, UK jobs, EZ IP/GDP, Germany/EZ ZEW survey, US retail sales, US TIC flows, China retail/IP/FAI, Poland/Colombia GDP, Fed nominees Clarida/Bowman testify, China Vice Premier Liu He in Washington, US public hearing on China tariffsWednesday: Japan GDP, Australia wages, EZ CPI, US IP, Thailand BOT, Israel GDP, Poland NBP, Brazil BCB, DraghiThursday: Japan core machine orders, Australia jobs, Malaysia GDP, Egypt CBE, Indonesia BI, Mexico BanxicoFriday: Japan CPI, Chile GDP, Fed BrainardSelect corporate earnings: Rosneft, Nissan, Axis Bank (IN) (Mon), Home Depot, Allianz (Tue), Tencent, Cisco, Gazprom, Telecom Italia (Wed), Walmart, Lukoil (Thu)

Week Ahead in Global Macro: Japan/EZ GDP/CPI, China FAI/Liu He, US Retails, EM MPCs (BCB, CBE, BI)

Amareos

Ryan Shea

“There’s a bull market somewhere” is an old market saying. Over recent years, driven by a global economy flush with central bank liquidity, it is tempting to substitute the “somewhere” with “everywhere”.The perception that all of the major asset classes are fundamentally expensive is widespread with many investors struggling to find value in equities (developed and emerging), bonds (government and private) or real estate.We are certainly sympathetic to such views and also recognise, and…

 “There’s a bull market somewhere” is an old market saying. Over recent years, driven by a global economy flush with central bank liquidity, it is tempting to substitute the “somewhere” with “everywhere”.The perception that all of the major asset classes are fundamentally expensive is widespread with many investors struggling to find value in equities (developed and emerging), bonds (government and private) or real estate.We are certainly sympathetic to such views and also recognise, and…

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

S&P 500: Heading for a Final High at 2,872-3,148

The final rally of this bull market is under way. That has been signalled by the appearance of the three-month Triangle in the S&P 500, and...

Peter Beuttell

As Dollar Rebounds, EM and Europe Consensus Narrative Shaken

Overweight EM debt and the euro were two of the most consensus trades coming into the year, and I’ve been bearish - both are unravelling fast as...

Sean Maher

U.S. Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Energy Stocks

The recent successful test of support at the 200-day moving average has paved the way for a meaningful bounce higher on the S&P 500. Given this...

Vermilion Research

Week Ahead in Global Macro: Japan/EZ GDP/CPI, China FAI/Liu He, US Retails, EM MPCs (BCB, CBE, BI)

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas: We pulled the trigger on two conditional...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

The Market Sentimentalist - Caught Short

“There’s a bull market somewhere” is an old market saying. Over recent years, driven by a global economy flush with central bank liquidity, it is...

Amareos