Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Wednesday's rally in U.S. equities was likely nothing more than a brief bear market rally, as confirmed by Thursday's sell-off.  All the major averages remain in downtrends and there continues to be an absence of bottoming patterns. Concerns that we have highlighted over the past several months continue to lead us to our intact cautious outlook.  In this report we highlight important technical levels and indicators, and highlight a bright spot for investors within the Consumer Staples Sector.

Wednesday's rally in U.S. equities was likely nothing more than a brief bear market rally, as confirmed by Thursday's sell-off.  All the major averages remain in downtrends and there continues to be an absence of bottoming patterns. Concerns that we have highlighted over the past several months continue to lead us to our intact cautious outlook.  In this report we highlight important technical levels and indicators, and highlight a bright spot for investors within the Consumer Staples Sector.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

A brief positioning sequence update as trade kicks off for 2019. Our S&amp;P bounce sequence outlined after Christmas met our C wave target and now set for some tactical ranging before reach for new lows in Q1.The fact that Asia could not must a rally on the back of the US 5% move higher on December 26th shed light on the bias this is resuming today after flat range patterns are breaking down.Sell rallies remains our macro bias, however we see a tactical low shaping up next week in part of a range bounce flat pattern ahead of the bigger bear cycle due into late Q1.Asia base case downside targets are outlined as well as fresh short resistance levels.

A brief positioning sequence update as trade kicks off for 2019. Our S&amp;P bounce sequence outlined after Christmas met our C wave target and now set for some tactical ranging before reach for new lows in Q1.The fact that Asia could not must a rally on the back of the US 5% move higher on December 26th shed light on the bias this is resuming today after flat range patterns are breaking down.Sell rallies remains our macro bias, however we see a tactical low shaping up next week in part of a range bounce flat pattern ahead of the bigger bear cycle due into late Q1.Asia base case downside targets are outlined as well as fresh short resistance levels.

Short press below S&amp;P 2,600 working well but the pace of the decline warns of a bigger macro bear cycle ahead in 2019.Near term we are moving into oversold territory in core sectors featured in this webcast as the S&amp;P approaches our first key target near 2,350. Given risk of a bounce post Christmas we are placing a tactical reversal target above this level.Support levels to work into are outlined as well as tactical bounce targets. Given key support breaks that macro picture continues to favor shorting rally attempts as our cycle work suggests we see more pain after the New Year.EEM outperform versus the S&amp;P is gaining traction and with a USD roll would see additional fuel.MSCI Asia x Japan perform call over US equities is also taking shape. Buy support targets outlined. If one intends to trade a year-end would licking bounce then Asia/EM's is the space to participate.

Short press below S&amp;P 2,600 working well but the pace of the decline warns of a bigger macro bear cycle ahead in 2019.Near term we are moving into oversold territory in core sectors featured in this webcast as the S&amp;P approaches our first key target near 2,350. Given risk of a bounce post Christmas we are placing a tactical reversal target above this level.Support levels to work into are outlined as well as tactical bounce targets. Given key support breaks that macro picture continues to favor shorting rally attempts as our cycle work suggests we see more pain after the New Year.EEM outperform versus the S&amp;P is gaining traction and with a USD roll would see additional fuel.MSCI Asia x Japan perform call over US equities is also taking shape. Buy support targets outlined. If one intends to trade a year-end would licking bounce then Asia/EM's is the space to participate.

SPX Tactical Reversal Level for Bounce with Asia/EM's the Perform

With U.S. markets stumbling, the MSCI ACWI index is breaking down to new lows: defensive Sectors remain attractive. Relative to MSCI ACWI however, emerging markets are the place to be. China, Brazil, Hungary, Qatar, India, Poland, and Indonesia all display positive price and/or RS trends. In this report we recap technical important levels on all major indexes and highlight attractive stocks within Real Estate, Health Care/Pharma, Precious Metals Mining, and Utilities.

With U.S. markets stumbling, the MSCI ACWI index is breaking down to new lows: defensive Sectors remain attractive. Relative to MSCI ACWI however, emerging markets are the place to be. China, Brazil, Hungary, Qatar, India, Poland, and Indonesia all display positive price and/or RS trends. In this report we recap technical important levels on all major indexes and highlight attractive stocks within Real Estate, Health Care/Pharma, Precious Metals Mining, and Utilities.

We see increasing evidence of a failed December risk on phase as core sectors break below supports and early 2018 lows in a lead fashion.Our underperform/bear call for banks, small caps, tech and transports to lead a bigger market spiral is taking shape. Small caps, banks and transports are now breaking early 2018 lows, signaling a broader S&amp;P break below 2,600 may in fact be unfolding now rather than in January/Q1.Fed speak will dominate a break/bounce next week but a break down is in the cards, regardless in 2019.Breadth remains bearish.USD/JPY teetering on a pattern breakout. Gold is not trading well given it has decoupled from traditional correlations.Big net outflows recorded in key sectors/markets last week.

We see increasing evidence of a failed December risk on phase as core sectors break below supports and early 2018 lows in a lead fashion.Our underperform/bear call for banks, small caps, tech and transports to lead a bigger market spiral is taking shape. Small caps, banks and transports are now breaking early 2018 lows, signaling a broader S&amp;P break below 2,600 may in fact be unfolding now rather than in January/Q1.Fed speak will dominate a break/bounce next week but a break down is in the cards, regardless in 2019.Breadth remains bearish.USD/JPY teetering on a pattern breakout. Gold is not trading well given it has decoupled from traditional correlations.Big net outflows recorded in key sectors/markets last week.

Core US Sectors Leading an S&P Major Support Break

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Bearish U.S. Outlook Intact

Wednesday's rally in U.S. equities was likely nothing more than a brief bear market rally, as confirmed by Thursday's sell-off. All the major...

Vermilion Research

SPX and Asia Bear Kick Off

A brief positioning sequence update as trade kicks off for 2019. Our S&P bounce sequence outlined after Christmas met our C wave target and now...

Thomas Schroeder

SPX Tactical Reversal Level for Bounce with Asia/EM's the Perform

Short press below S&P 2,600 working well but the pace of the decline warns of a bigger macro bear cycle ahead in 2019.Near term we are moving...

Thomas Schroeder

Global Markets Deteriorating...Except EM

With U.S. markets stumbling, the MSCI ACWI index is breaking down to new lows: defensive Sectors remain attractive. Relative to MSCI ACWI however,...

Vermilion Research

Core US Sectors Leading an S&P Major Support Break

We see increasing evidence of a failed December risk on phase as core sectors break below supports and early 2018 lows in a lead fashion.Our...

Thomas Schroeder