House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

Quick Market Updates

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>After four difficult months for markets, May is not going very well too. At least for equity investors.</li><li>On Friday, the S&amp;P 500 has been even in bear market for a couple of hours, before to jump in the last final hour.</li><li>What is scaring investors in such a big way? There are several factors, but the newest one is the fear of an incoming global “recession”, as you can even see from the monthly Fund Manager Survey from BofA.</li></ul>

After four difficult months for markets, May is not going very well too. At least for equity investors.On Friday, the S&amp;P 500 has been even in bear market for a couple of hours, before to jump in the last final hour.What is scaring investors in such a big way? There are several factors, but the newest one is the fear of an incoming global “recession”, as you can even see from the monthly Fund Manager Survey from BofA.

Investors fearful of a possible recession

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>World Stock Markets are being battered by weak US Fed Liquidity and by weakening World economic activity 
</li>
<li>
Central Bank tightness increasing driven by US Fed who are slated to drain US$2 trillion from markets </li>
<li>
Chinese economy struggling under C-19 lockdowns and tight People's Bank (PBoC)</li>
</ul>


World Stock Markets are being battered by weak US Fed Liquidity and by weakening World economic activity 


Central Bank tightness increasing driven by US Fed who are slated to drain US$2 trillion from markets 

Chinese economy struggling under C-19 lockdowns and tight People's Bank (PBoC)


What’s Driving The Bear Market ... Lower?

Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

<ul><li>Powell’s remarks in the Wall Street Journal interview this week were quite interesting, and markets seem to have noticed: we have seen quite some wild moves, but again the most relevant price action is happening under the surface.</li><li>In such a choppy market environment, systematic risk management techniques and a data-driven investment approach are key to tell the forest from the trees and reduce drawdowns in your portfolio.</li><li>Powell played the hawkish horn again, and markets are reacting in quite some interesting ways.</li></ul>

Powell’s remarks in the Wall Street Journal interview this week were quite interesting, and markets seem to have noticed: we have seen quite some wild moves, but again the most relevant price action is happening under the surface.In such a choppy market environment, systematic risk management techniques and a data-driven investment approach are key to tell the forest from the trees and reduce drawdowns in your portfolio.Powell played the hawkish horn again, and markets are reacting in quite some interesting ways.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The US equity decline still lacks real capitulation/outflows/redemptions for a major low but the next leg down does offer a better tactical long entry point.</li>
<li>RSI near 25 is the ideal buy zone for the SPX (this week or into late May). The weekly cycle has yet to show a convincing bottom.</li>
<li>NDX 12,700 is rejection resistance to induce a slide closer to 11,000 higher degree support for a better tradable rally sequence. RTY bull near 1,650.</li>
</ul>


The US equity decline still lacks real capitulation/outflows/redemptions for a major low but the next leg down does offer a better tactical long entry point.
RSI near 25 is the ideal buy zone for the SPX (this week or into late May). The weekly cycle has yet to show a convincing bottom.
NDX 12,700 is rejection resistance to induce a slide closer to 11,000 higher degree support for a better tradable rally sequence. RTY bull near 1,650.


SPX 4,100 Barrier - Next Draw Down Sets up a Better Trade

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

<ul>
<li>The future trajectory of US Treasury yields depends on investors' perceptions whether the Fed has taken the necessary steps to quell inflation. Significant quantitative tightening will not occur until September. </li>
<li>The Fed engineered lower real yields over the past forty years, albeit at varying speeds. Lower real yields since 2008 have boosted leverage in the corporate and federal government sectors. </li>
<li>US equities are facing the perfect storm in the form of rising interest rates and uncertainty about the economic and corporate profit outlooks. Investors are not trusting corporate profit forecasts.</li>
</ul>


The future trajectory of US Treasury yields depends on investors' perceptions whether the Fed has taken the necessary steps to quell inflation. Significant quantitative tightening will not occur until September. 
The Fed engineered lower real yields over the past forty years, albeit at varying speeds. Lower real yields since 2008 have boosted leverage in the corporate and federal government sectors. 
US equities are facing the perfect storm in the form of rising interest rates and uncertainty about the economic and corporate profit outlooks. Investors are not trusting corporate profit forecasts.


Angst of Rising Real Interest Rates Haunts US Financial Markets as Profit Forecasts Fail to Impress

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Investors fearful of a possible recession

What is scaring investors in such a big way? There are several factors, but the newest one is the fear of an incoming global “recession”

Market Radar

What’s Driving The Bear Market ... Lower?

World Stock Markets being battered by weak US Fed Liquidity and by weakening World economic activity. Latest data suggest we are going lower......

Michael J. Howell

Let The Macro Polar Stars Guide You

Powell’s remarks in the Wall Street Journal interview this week were quite interesting, and markets seem to have noticed: we have seen quite some...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

SPX 4,100 Barrier - Next Draw Down Sets up a Better Trade

The US equity decline still lacks real capitulation/outflows/redemptions for a major low but the next leg down does offer a better tactical long...

Thomas Schroeder

Angst of Rising Real Interest Rates Haunts US Financial Markets as Profit Forecasts Fail to Impress

The spectre of higher US real interest rates haunts markets, with implications for corporations and federal government. Equity investors are...

DeSaque Macro Research