European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>CPI controls now 82.67% of the voting rights, with an additional acceptance period running until 18 November, at €22.85 adjusted offer price. CPI does not intend to seek a squeeze out/delisting.</li>
<li>I believe that ultimately CPI, Immofinanz and S IMMO will merge, potentially making CPI one of the largest players in Europe in a transformative deal.</li>
<li>A conservative valuation, economic profit-based, would be €24.7/share, 15% discount to EPRA NTA. It may be worth buying below the offer price and holding onto the shares. Gross spread: 0.22%.</li>
</ul>


CPI controls now 82.67% of the voting rights, with an additional acceptance period running until 18 November, at €22.85 adjusted offer price. CPI does not intend to seek a squeeze out/delisting.
I believe that ultimately CPI, Immofinanz and S IMMO will merge, potentially making CPI one of the largest players in Europe in a transformative deal.
A conservative valuation, economic profit-based, would be €24.7/share, 15% discount to EPRA NTA. It may be worth buying below the offer price and holding onto the shares. Gross spread: 0.22%.


<ul>
<li>CPI, directly and indirectly, owns 42.6% in S Immo and seeks to launch a €23.5 mandatory offer if a 15% voting cap in S IMMO's by-laws is removed.</li>
<li>CPI has Board support. AGM will take place on 1 June. Although S IMMO trades at a large discount to NAV, interloper risk is low.</li>
<li>Gross spread is 1.3%. Assuming clearances are obtained, and offer settled by 1 August, estimated annual return would be 5.5%. Long SPI AV.</li>
</ul>


CPI, directly and indirectly, owns 42.6% in S Immo and seeks to launch a €23.5 mandatory offer if a 15% voting cap in S IMMO's by-laws is removed.
CPI has Board support. AGM will take place on 1 June. Although S IMMO trades at a large discount to NAV, interloper risk is low.
Gross spread is 1.3%. Assuming clearances are obtained, and offer settled by 1 August, estimated annual return would be 5.5%. Long SPI AV.


CPI/S IMMO: Agreement Regarding EGM and Offer

<ul>
<li>CPI has revealed a 55.07% stake in Immofinanz. The additional acceptance period will end on 28 May. CPI will likely continue purchasing shares in the market.</li>
<li>CPI now also controls 42.55% of S Immo. A combined CPI/Immofinanz/S Immo would have €24bn assets. Scale and sound capital management may bring handsome profits in the longer term.</li>
<li>Immofinanz's shares offer 5.1% 23e FFO yield. Gross spread to offer price is 0.6%. The convertible spread is c.2%. My TP is €25.86/share, 12.2% discount to EPRA NTA. Long IIA VA. </li>
</ul>


CPI has revealed a 55.07% stake in Immofinanz. The additional acceptance period will end on 28 May. CPI will likely continue purchasing shares in the market.
CPI now also controls 42.55% of S Immo. A combined CPI/Immofinanz/S Immo would have €24bn assets. Scale and sound capital management may bring handsome profits in the longer term.
Immofinanz's shares offer 5.1% 23e FFO yield. Gross spread to offer price is 0.6%. The convertible spread is c.2%. My TP is €25.86/share, 12.2% discount to EPRA NTA. Long IIA VA. 


CPI/Immofinanz: Additional Acceptance Period, S Immo

<ul>
<li>Immofinanz recommends shareholders neither accept S Immo's €23/share partial offer, nor CPI's €22.7/share for the whole share capital (both cum dividend). CPI controls (pending approvals) 35.5% of Immofinanz.</li>
<li>Crossed shareholdings and poor use of capital among Austrian real estate players put a lid on their stock market performance, nevertheless Immofinanz's discount to NAV is steadily approaching pre-Covid levels.</li>
<li>The shares of Immofinanz look good value in my view, at 4.3% 22e FFO yield, 21% discount to EPRA NTA, with the potential upside from an improved CPI's offer.</li>
</ul>


Immofinanz recommends shareholders neither accept S Immo's €23/share partial offer, nor CPI's €22.7/share for the whole share capital (both cum dividend). CPI controls (pending approvals) 35.5% of Immofinanz.
Crossed shareholdings and poor use of capital among Austrian real estate players put a lid on their stock market performance, nevertheless Immofinanz's discount to NAV is steadily approaching pre-Covid levels.
The shares of Immofinanz look good value in my view, at 4.3% 22e FFO yield, 21% discount to EPRA NTA, with the potential upside from an improved CPI's offer.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-immo-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22559:1" rel="noopener">S IMMO AG (SPI AV)</a> owns 14.2% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/immofinanz-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22547:1" rel="noopener">IMMOFINANZ AG (IIA AV)</a>, Immofinanz owns 26.5% of S Immo. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpi-property-group-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21688:1" rel="noopener">CPI</a> is on a buying spree: 32% of Immofinanz, 11.6% of S Immo. </li>
<li>Merger discussions take another twist with two offers for Immofinanz: CPI launches an anticipated mandatory offer, which could later allow it to increase its stake; S Immo seeks to protect itself.</li>
<li>Immofinanz trades at 3.8% FFO yield. My TP, economic profit-based is €25.86/share, 15% discount to EPRA NAV, and 5% above the median TP of Capital IQ consensus. Long IIA AV.</li>
</ul>



S IMMO AG (SPI AV) owns 14.2% of IMMOFINANZ AG (IIA AV), Immofinanz owns 26.5% of S Immo. CPI is on a buying spree: 32% of Immofinanz, 11.6% of S Immo. 
Merger discussions take another twist with two offers for Immofinanz: CPI launches an anticipated mandatory offer, which could later allow it to increase its stake; S Immo seeks to protect itself.
Immofinanz trades at 3.8% FFO yield. My TP, economic profit-based is €25.86/share, 15% discount to EPRA NAV, and 5% above the median TP of Capital IQ consensus. Long IIA AV.


Austria

S IMMO AG is a property investment company that invests in diversified real estate in Eastern Europe. The Company invests in prime real estate in Austria, Germany and countries in Central and Southeastern Europe. S IMMO's portfolio includes residential, office, retail space and hotels.

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S IMMO AG (SPI AV)

CPI/S Immo: Additional Acceptance Period

CPI (R. Vitek) is succeeding where others have failed and controls S Immo (82.67% voting rights) and Immofinanz (76.86% voting rights). The...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

CPI/S IMMO: Agreement Regarding EGM and Offer

The ned of the Austrian real estate takeover saga seems closer to an end. CPI may succeed where others have failed and may be able to merge CPI...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

CPI/Immofinanz: Additional Acceptance Period, S Immo

CPI now holds 55.1% of Immofinanz. The three month additional acceptance period runs until 28 May and will provide support for the shares. Gross...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

CPI/Immofinanz: Raised Offer

The saga continues. Immofinanz recommends shareholders neither accept S Immo's partial €23 offer, nor CPI's €22.7 for the whole share capital (both...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

S Immo and CPI Wrestle for Immofinanz

Interesting developments for Immofinanz, with two competing bids and a possible three-way merger. If CPI increases its bid above S Immo's, it will...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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