New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Ryman Healthcare (RYM) added a further NZ$400m of net debt in 1H23 against our expectations of ~NZ$150m and now carry ~NZ$3bn of debt</li><li>The difference relative to our expectations was centered on continued delayed cash collection of new sales</li><li>While RYM's debt is still manageable in the context of its ~NZ$12bn total assets, we believe RYM's debt level is starting to constrain it</li></ul>

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) added a further NZ$400m of net debt in 1H23 against our expectations of ~NZ$150m and now carry ~NZ$3bn of debtThe difference relative to our expectations was centered on continued delayed cash collection of new salesWhile RYM's debt is still manageable in the context of its ~NZ$12bn total assets, we believe RYM's debt level is starting to constrain it

Ryman Healthcare: 1H23 Result — Capital Constrained?

<ul><li>Ryman (RYM) reported a 1H23 result in-line with our expectations due to strong re-sale gains offset by higher costs and weak new-sale gains</li><li>Annuity EBITDA was up 35% vs PCP and 14% ahead of our estimates</li><li>While the news across the P&amp;L was more positive than negative, the cash flow was very weak and net debt increased by ~NZ$450m vs the FY22 full year, to ~NZ$3bn</li></ul>

Ryman (RYM) reported a 1H23 result in-line with our expectations due to strong re-sale gains offset by higher costs and weak new-sale gainsAnnuity EBITDA was up 35% vs PCP and 14% ahead of our estimatesWhile the news across the P&amp;L was more positive than negative, the cash flow was very weak and net debt increased by ~NZ$450m vs the FY22 full year, to ~NZ$3bn

Ryman (RYM): 1H23 Result – Initial Impressions

<ul><li>Care earnings likely to remain under pressure — but this time we expect focus to shift to the revenue line</li><li>Cash conversion to improve, but debt will likely continue to increase</li><li>Delivering 900–1,000 units in FY23 looks challenging — we do not expect RYM to be halfway there at the halfway mark</li></ul>

Care earnings likely to remain under pressure — but this time we expect focus to shift to the revenue lineCash conversion to improve, but debt will likely continue to increaseDelivering 900–1,000 units in FY23 looks challenging — we do not expect RYM to be halfway there at the halfway mark

Ryman Healthcare: 1H23 Preview — Costs, Cash & Care

<ul><li>Ryman Healthcare (RYM) held an investor day focussed on the long term strategic direction of the company.</li><li>Cash recovery of capex set to improve but likely not materially until the second half of the decade</li><li>A disruptor in Australia; the success here will hold the key to long term performance</li></ul>

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) held an investor day focussed on the long term strategic direction of the company.Cash recovery of capex set to improve but likely not materially until the second half of the decadeA disruptor in Australia; the success here will hold the key to long term performance

Ryman Healthcare: A Necessary Pivot Towards Cash Recycling

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever so slightly in August, up +0.2% versus July 2022 and up ~+7% versus August 2021</li><li>COVID pricing buffer continues to shrink</li><li>Significant swings in the short run starting to impact the long run</li></ul>

Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever so slightly in August, up +0.2% versus July 2022 and up ~+7% versus August 2021COVID pricing buffer continues to shrinkSignificant swings in the short run starting to impact the long run

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing ​​​Index

New Zealand

Ryman Healthcare Limited provides private health care services through its development, management and operation of retirement villages, nursing homes and geriatric hospitals.  The Company's facilities are located in Christchurch, Dunedin, Invercargill and Wellington.

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Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)

Ryman Healthcare: 1H23 Result — Capital Constrained?

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) added a further NZ$400m of net debt in 1H23 against our expectations of ~NZ$150m and now carry ~NZ$3bn of debt; the...

Forsyth Barr

Ryman (RYM): 1H23 Result – Initial Impressions

Ryman (RYM) reported a 1H23 result in-line with our expectations due to strong re-sale gains offset by higher costs and weak new-sale gains;...

Forsyth Barr

Ryman Healthcare: 1H23 Preview — Costs, Cash & Care

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) reports its 1H23 earnings on Friday, 18 November, which will be the first of the aged care companies to report this earnings...

Forsyth Barr

Ryman Healthcare: A Necessary Pivot Towards Cash Recycling

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) held an investor day focussed on the long term strategic direction of the company and our overarching impression is that the...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever...

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ryman Healthcare: 1H23 Result — Capital Constrained?

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) added a further NZ$400m of net debt in 1H23 against our expectations of ~NZ$150m and now carry ~NZ$3bn of debt; the...

Forsyth Barr

Ryman (RYM): 1H23 Result – Initial Impressions

Ryman (RYM) reported a 1H23 result in-line with our expectations due to strong re-sale gains offset by higher costs and weak new-sale gains;...

Forsyth Barr

Ryman Healthcare: 1H23 Preview — Costs, Cash & Care

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) reports its 1H23 earnings on Friday, 18 November, which will be the first of the aged care companies to report this earnings...

Forsyth Barr

Ryman Healthcare: A Necessary Pivot Towards Cash Recycling

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) held an investor day focussed on the long term strategic direction of the company and our overarching impression is that the...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing ​​​Index

Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index