New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Ryman Healthcare (RYM) reported a strong FY23 result, ahead of our and consensus expectations with annuity EBITDA up +27% versus FY22, driven by good cost control and continued high resale gains</li><li>Operating expenses normalising as COVID disruptions fade into the background</li><li>Positive free cash flow by FY25? Success is not a destination, it's a journey</li></ul>

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) reported a strong FY23 result, ahead of our and consensus expectations with annuity EBITDA up +27% versus FY22, driven by good cost control and continued high resale gainsOperating expenses normalising as COVID disruptions fade into the backgroundPositive free cash flow by FY25? Success is not a destination, it's a journey

Ryman Healthcare: FY23 Result; Clear Step in The Right Direction

<ul><li>Ryman Healthcare (RYM) will report its FY23 result on Friday, 19 May.</li><li>RYM undertook its first equity raise as a listed company in February.</li><li>In conjunction with this it guided to FY23 underlying earnings of between NZ$280m–$290m.</li></ul>

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) will report its FY23 result on Friday, 19 May.RYM undertook its first equity raise as a listed company in February.In conjunction with this it guided to FY23 underlying earnings of between NZ$280m–$290m.

Ryman Healthcare: FY23 Preview — Costs, Cash, Capex

<ul><li>We believe Ryman Healthcare (RYM) is changing its stripes more than the market is giving it credit for.</li><li>The ~NZ$2bn of debt built up over the last five years was driven equally by (1) WIP build up, and (2) poor cash recycling.</li><li>Our detailed analysis of the debt accumulation causes suggests that the announced pivot to less high density villages and less care should be enough to get back to 100% cash recycling</li></ul>

We believe Ryman Healthcare (RYM) is changing its stripes more than the market is giving it credit for.The ~NZ$2bn of debt built up over the last five years was driven equally by (1) WIP build up, and (2) poor cash recycling.Our detailed analysis of the debt accumulation causes suggests that the announced pivot to less high density villages and less care should be enough to get back to 100% cash recycling

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Covenants are not created equal; we do not forecast any breaches, and if it gets close, we expect leniency from the banks</li><li>Level of debt likely a key driver of performance over next 18 months — OCA and RYM best positioned</li><li>In theory an inflationary environment should be good news for aged care stocks</li></ul>

Covenants are not created equal; we do not forecast any breaches, and if it gets close, we expect leniency from the banksLevel of debt likely a key driver of performance over next 18 months — OCA and RYM best positionedIn theory an inflationary environment should be good news for aged care stocks

Aged Care Sector: Tide Is Going Out; Debt Coming to the Surface

<ul><li>Our MI index remains flat: Year-on-year growth for our MI-aged care pricing index to February has fallen to only +3% and the index has been flat over the last six months</li><li>Pricing buffers consumed by falling house prices</li><li>Low turnover and elevated days to sell are no signs of a "proper" bottom in house prices</li></ul>

Our MI index remains flat: Year-on-year growth for our MI-aged care pricing index to February has fallen to only +3% and the index has been flat over the last six monthsPricing buffers consumed by falling house pricesLow turnover and elevated days to sell are no signs of a "proper" bottom in house prices

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index (15-March-2023)

New Zealand

Ryman Healthcare Limited provides private health care services through its development, management and operation of retirement villages, nursing homes and geriatric hospitals.  The Company's facilities are located in Christchurch, Dunedin, Invercargill and Wellington.

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Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)

Ryman Healthcare: FY23 Result; Clear Step in The Right Direction

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) reported a strong FY23 result, ahead of our and consensus expectations with annuity EBITDA up +27% versus FY22, driven by...

Forsyth Barr

Ryman Healthcare: FY23 Preview — Costs, Cash, Capex

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) will report its FY23 result on Friday, 19 May; It also announced several major strategic changes; (1) an increased focus on...

Forsyth Barr

Ryman Healthcare: Changing Its Stripes

We believe Ryman Healthcare (RYM) is changing its stripes more than the market is giving it credit for; the ~NZ$2bn of debt built up over the last...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Tide Is Going Out; Debt Coming to the Surface

The three aged care stocks with March year ends (Ryman [RYM], Arvida [ARV] and Oceania [OCA]) have tripled net debt over the last five years; As a...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index (15-March-2023)

Another tough month for the aged care stocks, down between -10% and -15%, has likely been driven to a significant degree...

Forsyth Barr

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