Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Technical Analysis

On the one year anniversary of the Covid-19 stock market low, we revisit the path taken on the S&amp;P 500.Remarkably, as global economic activity stopped, borders closed, and the virus spread, the stock market saw one of its most aggressive rallies, thanks largely to the Federal Reserve. A year later the S&amp;P 500 has made it 82% above that March 2020 panic low.Is this number important? Have we seen this before? If so, when? And what clues might it give as we approach the second quarter of 2021?

On the one year anniversary of the Covid-19 stock market low, we revisit the path taken on the S&amp;P 500.Remarkably, as global economic activity stopped, borders closed, and the virus spread, the stock market saw one of its most aggressive rallies, thanks largely to the Federal Reserve. A year later the S&amp;P 500 has made it 82% above that March 2020 panic low.Is this number important? Have we seen this before? If so, when? And what clues might it give as we approach the second quarter of 2021?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

<div>The action we are seeing in broad indexes, Sectors, and in market dynamics continues to support our overall bullish outlook. Additionally, the mild deterioration in market dynamics that we discussed the past two weeks is now much less of a concern. Continue to buy dips. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Health Care.</div>

The action we are seeing in broad indexes, Sectors, and in market dynamics continues to support our overall bullish outlook. Additionally, the mild deterioration in market dynamics that we discussed the past two weeks is now much less of a concern. Continue to buy dips. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Health Care.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Dow Jones Industrial Average / Technical Analysis

Fresh sell resistance is the tactical focus after seeing the reversal from short levels and DJI cracking key support that was touted to trigger an SPX fall and now piercing the critical SPX wedge support that will open up the downside.<div>Short equity (sell risk and put on protection), long USD and lower yield call panning out. Equity shakeout on the back of divergence and a USD short squeeze in the making.</div>

Fresh sell resistance is the tactical focus after seeing the reversal from short levels and DJI cracking key support that was touted to trigger an SPX fall and now piercing the critical SPX wedge support that will open up the downside.Short equity (sell risk and put on protection), long USD and lower yield call panning out. Equity shakeout on the back of divergence and a USD short squeeze in the making.

We have a call to sell risk at the top of the SPX wedge near 3,860 for a pullback and see the DJI as the weakest link that would break support and spearhead an SPX pullback. USD is geared for follow through strength concentrated in EM, Asia and the Euro.Bet was to short the DJI above 31k (met) as the weaker link and Underperform vs the SPX. The next bet to short was the Russell near 2,190 (met) for a test on the 2,000 pivot support.SPX near pivot lies at 3,815 and the bigger wedge and pattern pivot level at 3,750 that would usher in a correction.

We have a call to sell risk at the top of the SPX wedge near 3,860 for a pullback and see the DJI as the weakest link that would break support and spearhead an SPX pullback. USD is geared for follow through strength concentrated in EM, Asia and the Euro.Bet was to short the DJI above 31k (met) as the weaker link and Underperform vs the SPX. The next bet to short was the Russell near 2,190 (met) for a test on the 2,000 pivot support.SPX near pivot lies at 3,815 and the bigger wedge and pattern pivot level at 3,750 that would usher in a correction.

SPX is meeting our 3,720 target within our micro peak in risk timeline on December 21 as markets face the reality of selling the stimulus deal fact. We do have an overshoot range toward the top of the rising wedge noted in the daily cycle chart with lower wedge support the pivot level. We have touted putting on short protection in Europe and weaker parts of Asia as well as top picking in the Russell 2000 (rising bear wedge).Our sequence calls for a near term peak in risk, low in the USD inducing an equity pullback into late December (risk of snowballing) to set up a buy for a rise into late January where another risk event is expected.

SPX is meeting our 3,720 target within our micro peak in risk timeline on December 21 as markets face the reality of selling the stimulus deal fact. We do have an overshoot range toward the top of the rising wedge noted in the daily cycle chart with lower wedge support the pivot level. We have touted putting on short protection in Europe and weaker parts of Asia as well as top picking in the Russell 2000 (rising bear wedge).Our sequence calls for a near term peak in risk, low in the USD inducing an equity pullback into late December (risk of snowballing) to set up a buy for a rise into late January where another risk event is expected.

United States

The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The index was developed with a base value of 135.00 as of December 31, 1986.

Russell 2000 Index (RTY INDEX)

SPX: One Year Later...What Next?

An historical and behavioural look at the S&P 500 exactly a year from the Covid-panic low of March 2020 reveals that one should be more defensive...

Shyam Devani

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

The action we are seeing in broad indexes, Sectors, and in market dynamics continues to support our overall bullish outlook. Continue to buy dips.

Vermilion Research

US Fresh Sell Levels for the Punch Lower

Short equity (sell risk and put on protection), long USD and lower yield call panning out. Equity shakeout on the back of divergence and a USD...

Thomas Schroeder

Lead Trigger for a US Correction

Call to sell risk at the top of the SPX wedge for a pullback and see the DJI as the weakest link that would break support and spearhead an SPX...

Thomas Schroeder

Risk of a Pullback Snowballing

SPX is meeting our 3,720 target within our micro peak in risk timeline on December 21 as markets face the reality of selling the stimulus deal...

Thomas Schroeder