Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Late April capitulation turn unfolding on the SPX trendline break and RTY wedge support breach. We turned bearish (shorting) on April 18 just under SPX 4,200.</li>
<li>A number of breakdown coming through in Asia - Korea's bear impulse and Taiwan's break of trendline support that turns the cycle to bearish. Japan will lag.</li>
<li>SPX MACD bear turn is in line with our late April bear phase. A cycle trough is due in 6 weeks time (second week of June).</li>
</ul>


Late April capitulation turn unfolding on the SPX trendline break and RTY wedge support breach. We turned bearish (shorting) on April 18 just under SPX 4,200.
A number of breakdown coming through in Asia - Korea's bear impulse and Taiwan's break of trendline support that turns the cycle to bearish. Japan will lag.
SPX MACD bear turn is in line with our late April bear phase. A cycle trough is due in 6 weeks time (second week of June).


Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The US 10-year rates futures had rallied for six consecutive days while Growth and Momentum stocks lagged.</li><li>Wednesday was a marked change, with NASDAQ falling while bonds rallied sharply.</li><li>It was a day when value and small caps outperformed FANMG and Growth stocks.</li></ul>

The US 10-year rates futures had rallied for six consecutive days while Growth and Momentum stocks lagged.Wednesday was a marked change, with NASDAQ falling while bonds rallied sharply.It was a day when value and small caps outperformed FANMG and Growth stocks.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

<ul>
<li>Last week we discussed potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on SPX, or even the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get more defensive.</li>
<li>As long as the S&amp;P 500 is below Wednesdays high of 4040 we continue to believe the bears are in control -- stay defensive.</li>
<li>Even if there is a reversal, we still expect 4165-4200 on SPX to cap upside for 2023. We highlight many buy opportunities within Consumer Staples</li>
</ul>


Last week we discussed potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on SPX, or even the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get more defensive.
As long as the S&amp;P 500 is below Wednesdays high of 4040 we continue to believe the bears are in control -- stay defensive.
Even if there is a reversal, we still expect 4165-4200 on SPX to cap upside for 2023. We highlight many buy opportunities within Consumer Staples


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA All Testing Resistance; Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Buy Staples

Republic First Bancorp / Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The troubles of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Capital, Credit Suisse, an ongoing lack of confidence in European banks, and First Republic Bank have resulted in extreme volatility in Short dated Interest rates, Banks, and Financials.</li><li>The sharp rise in fixed-income volatility has not happened to FX, Commodity, and Equity volatility.</li><li>We saw record one-day moves in 3-month SOFR futures, and 2-Year Treasury yields dropped the most since 2008.</li></ul>

The troubles of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Capital, Credit Suisse, an ongoing lack of confidence in European banks, and First Republic Bank have resulted in extreme volatility in Short dated Interest rates, Banks, and Financials.The sharp rise in fixed-income volatility has not happened to FX, Commodity, and Equity volatility.We saw record one-day moves in 3-month SOFR futures, and 2-Year Treasury yields dropped the most since 2008.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged; we see the market indexes consolidating within broad horizontal ranges, and we expect the top-end of the range to be 4165-4200 on the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>The bottom-end of the range is at the 2022 lows (3490). Another possible support level we are monitoring is at the December 2022 lows (3765).</li>
<li>The Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing important support at $170 (the Dec. 2022 lows and the prior downtrend from 2022), suggesting this is a logical time for an oversold bounce.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged; we see the market indexes consolidating within broad horizontal ranges, and we expect the top-end of the range to be 4165-4200 on the S&amp;P 500.
The bottom-end of the range is at the 2022 lows (3490). Another possible support level we are monitoring is at the December 2022 lows (3765).
The Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing important support at $170 (the Dec. 2022 lows and the prior downtrend from 2022), suggesting this is a logical time for an oversold bounce.


Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $170; Downgrading Energy; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing 3.4% Support

United States

The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The index was developed with a base value of 135.00 as of December 31, 1986.

Russell 2000 Index (RTY INDEX)

Late April Break for a 6-Week Decline

Late April capitulation turn unfolding on the SPX trendline break and RTY wedge support breach. We turned bearish (shorting) on April 18 just under...

Thomas Schroeder

Ignoring Tailwinds

The US 10-year rates futures had rallied for six consecutive days while Growth and Momentum stocks lagged. Wednesday was a marked change, with...

Untying The Gordian Knot

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA All Testing Resistance; Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Buy Staples

Last week (3/21) we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the $SPX, or even the 4165-4200 range, which we noted...

Vermilion Research

Credit Becoming Due

The troubles of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Capital, Credit Suisse, an ongoing lack of confidence in European banks...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $170; Downgrading Energy; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing 3.4% Support

Our 2023 $SPX outlook remains unchanged: rangebound trade between 4165-4200 and 3490, with Dec. 2022 lows (3765) also possible support. Bears in...

Vermilion Research