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Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

KEY HIGHLIGHTS


WTR-CMI last week.&nbsp;Our WTR-CMI index of 30 chemicals and materials technology stocks couldn’t keep up with the broader market last week, slipping 0.4% versus the prior week, while the S&amp;P 500 posted a 0.4% appreciation and the Russell 2000 rallied 1.9% for the week. Strong 2Q22 results and a strong outlook drove KWR stock up 15.3% and contributed to MTRN’s 8.6% appreciation, with LAC’s 7.7% improvement rounding out the top performers for the week. ECVT’s larger&nbsp;secondary offering priced at $8.75&nbsp;resulted in a 12.9% pullback for the stock, while VVV declined 11% despite announcing the&nbsp;sale of its Global Products business to Aramco, as investors remained concerned about margin pressures and longer-term prospects for a company still largely focused on ICE vehicle maintenance. EAF’s (9.6%) weekly performance also came courtesy of the outlook it provided on its 2Q22 earnings call, which highlighted slowing steel production and elevated costs.
Economic anxiety growing.&nbsp;Concerns over the&nbsp;impact of reduced gas supply from Russia&nbsp;and its impact on industrial production in the country were recently voiced as a reason for the cautious outlook for the balance of 2022 and into 2023, according to Covestro Germany. In yet another sign of a growing economic slowdown, domestic&nbsp;organic produce volumes declined 2.8%&nbsp;Y/Y in 2Q22, as prices went up 6.7%, indicating that consumers are becoming more price conscious as inflationary pressures heat up. This would not be good news for consumer-centric companies such as SHW, PPG, RPM, and VVV, as customer trade-downs may add mix pressures to the volume and FX headwinds.
Chip crunch prompts greater OEM involvement.&nbsp;As the chip shortage for the automotive industry&nbsp;continues to take a bite out of global production, OEMs are being looked to as reliable funding partners for future semiconductor fabs, as&nbsp;chip manufacturers look to offload some of the funding burden&nbsp;onto the ultimate customer in order to ensure the situation does not repeat once the current crunch is over,&nbsp;sometime in 2023.
LTHM gets prepayment from GM.&nbsp;In the last issue, we highlighted GM’s supply agreement with LTHM and last week we learned that the&nbsp;auto OEM is prepaying LTHM $198 million&nbsp;to ensure a six-year contractual supply—another indication of growing material availability concerns in the EV industry.

WTR-CMI WEEKLY PERFORMANCE


Source: YCharts; August 5 close

Ag-Tech and Bio-Ag
Farmland acres grow globally but shrink in the US.&nbsp;According to a recent article,&nbsp;global farm acreage has increased&nbsp;in 2000’s after the flattish 1980-2000 period, with most of the growth coming from LATAM, India, and former CIS regions, with oilseed crops, particularly soybeans, accounting for most of the increase. Conversely,&nbsp;domestic farm acres shrank&nbsp;over the past two decades, as succession decisions and urban and suburban development are removing 2,000 acres per day from domestic farming and grazing lands. We mentioned this trend in our previous reports and see this as a driver of adoption of newer ag technologies, including precision farming, seed treatment, and bio-based pesticide and fertilizer alternatives, which are all designed to improve yields and minimize environmental impact in order to produce more without needing more farmland. Companies such as BHIL and BIOX, as well as FMC, CTVA, and AVD, stand to benefit as use of inputs/acre grows, with BIOX and FMC being particularly well positioned given their strong LATAM presence and FMC’s over-representation in soybean and rapeseed markets.
As concerns over food scarcity grow, government regulators turn a deaf ear.&nbsp;While the Ukraine/Russia agreement that allowed exports of Ukrainian grain to resume is encouraging, concerns are rising over the 2022-23 Ukrainian crop season.&nbsp;According to the USDA, Ukrainian production of sunflower seeds is expected to decline 37% versus this year, with Ukraine being the number one producer of sunflower seeds. The report also predicts a 35% Y/Y decline in wheat production in the 2022-23 season (Ukraine is the ninth-largest wheat producer in the world) and a whopping 54% drop in the country’s corn production (Ukraine is the sixth-largest corn producer in the world). And that’s if the war’s impact on Ukraine’s farming heartland doesn’t get worse! As a major exporter of grain and ag products, Ukraine’s limited ability to export foodstuff this year and uncertainty over supply next season is raising concerns among major importing regions such as India, Africa, and Asia as to their ability to provide sufficient food for their populace.
It would seem that in this environment, governments would be doing all they could to ensure the adequate supply of ag products to the global market, or at least their own. However, that may not be the case. As we highlighted in the last issue, Netherlands regulators are putting environmental regulations in place that would raise the cost (if not make it outright impossible) for smaller Dutch farmers to continue to produce, which has led to widespread farmer demonstrations across the country. Holland may not be alone in this drive to reduce farming’s impact on the environment at any cost. Its example&nbsp;may be followed by Canada and Ireland&nbsp;and there is concern that similar environmental rules, which seem to be specifically aimed at farming, may come to the US, given the green agenda of the current administration. Tone deaf does not begin to describe these initiatives and efforts, in our opinion.
Automotive &amp; Transportation
July picks up where June left off.&nbsp;The top three economies in Europe are reporting another Y/Y decline in July new car registrations.&nbsp;Germany saw a 13% drop, while&nbsp;the UK posted a slightly less onerous 9% Y/Y&nbsp;decline in new car registrations last month.&nbsp;French registrations&nbsp;also declined, but at a slightly slower 7% pace. And while the impact of chip shortages is waning on a Y/Y basis as we mentioned previously and the Y/Y declines in registrations may also show better comps in 2H22, a recovery in demand still lies beyond the line of sight, as new obstacles replace the old concerns. Gas rationing in Europe due to Russia’s influence over gas supply to the region, higher model prices as OEMs work to preserve margins in&nbsp;a rising cost environment, and slowing the economy’s impact on consumer confidence&nbsp;are likely to continue to weigh on auto production and sales well into 2023. BMW for example, while looking for a recovery in 2H22, had to reduce its full-year 2022 outlook&nbsp;given the slower 1H22 and uncertainty and volatility of economic and geopolitical factors that make more optimistic predictions difficult at this time.
We continue to see risk for companies in our index with high exposure to the automotive and transportation sectors, including PPG, AXTA, and to a lesser extent, AVNT, FUL, and HXL.
Battery Materials &amp; EV Transformation
Technology, methods, and supply chain continue to evolve.&nbsp;Global&nbsp;automotive manufacturers and their suppliers are looking to invest half a trillion dollars&nbsp;over the next several years in order to prepare the industry to transition to an EV architecture more fully. The investments range from new EV factories, battery cell and battery plants, new and expanded mining and conversion plant infrastructure for critical materials, and the growing realization of the need to reduce the industry’s dependence on China as the primary source EV-related supply. The recent&nbsp;decision by CATL to delay&nbsp;finalizing its plans for a North American battery plant underscores those concerns. It can therefore be seen as a sign of desperate times that&nbsp;Tesla felt it necessary to sign supply agreements with two Chinese cobalt processors&nbsp;in an effort to ensure it has adequate access to that important battery metal. Can one blame it given&nbsp;the outlook for cobalt?
Looking high and low for critical materials.&nbsp;Almost every long-term projection of EV growth and corresponding growth in critical metals needed for EV batteries includes a widening disparity between expected demand and available, highly probable, and even somewhat probable supply for most of these materials—lithium first and foremost. It is not surprising then that both auto OEMs and battery companies are looking to sign supply deals with existing and even speculative suppliers. Case in point is the recent announcement of a&nbsp;supply agreement between Prime Planet Energy &amp; Solutions, the battery joint venture of Toyota and Panasonic, and Ioneer Ltd.&nbsp;(OTC: GSCCF), a development-stage company whose lithium production plant isn’t expected to commence construction until 4Q22, with an uncertain timeline to commercial production. Another source of critical materials for batteries is end-of-life EV batteries themselves. In the spirit of environmental responsibility and a circular economy,&nbsp;Ascend Elements has announced plans to invest up to $1 billion&nbsp;in a factory in Kentucky for the production of battery cathode materials for EVs. The plant will use black mass from recycled batteries to directly produce cathode materials for the EV market. Production is scheduled to start at the end of 2023, with capacity to produce enough cathode materials for 250,000 EVs annually. Similarly, British battery developer&nbsp;Nexeon secured more than $200 million in funding&nbsp;to develop its battery materials manufacturing operations for the production of silicone-based anode materials for EV batteries, showing that it’s not just the cathode-side metals, such as lithium and cobalt, that are subject to supply concerns and therefore provide opportunities for funding and growth. We also note that one of the companies in our WTR-CMI index, namely&nbsp;NGVT, took part in this round of funding&nbsp;for Nexeon.
Graphite market update.&nbsp;Speaking of anode materials, an often overlooked part of an EV battery is the graphite that goes into the battery anode. As with other critical battery materials, a severe shortage of supply versus projected demand is envisioned for the graphite market. However, until now, this pending imbalance appears to be getting little attention from investors. As the realization that the EV industry is 100% dependent on China for&nbsp;battery-grade graphite spreads, we believe this lack of attention will be addressed. One company that is looking to launch domestic production of battery-grade graphite materials is Westwater Resources (NYSE: WWR). We recently hosted a fireside chat with WWR management to discuss this apparent lack of investor understanding of the supply-demand imbalance and overreliance on China (see link below). The company will update investors on its progress Thursday, August 11 at 11:00 am EDT when management will host its 2Q22 call.
Chemicals and Materials Technology in the News
NGVT.&nbsp;In addition to making an aforementioned investment in Nexeon, the company also announced the&nbsp;acquisition of privately owned Ozark Materials, LLC and Ozark Logistics, LLC (“Ozark Materials”)&nbsp;for $325 million. The acquisition is expected to close by early 4Q22. The acquired business is on pace for annual revenues of approximately $150 million, with a ~20% EBITDA margin in FY23.
MTRN.&nbsp;The company announced that it has established a new facility in Milwaukee, Wisconsin to accelerate the growth of advanced chemical solutions for the semiconductor and EV battery markets. The new 150,000-square-foot facility expands the company’s capacity to produce Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD) materials for the most sophisticated semiconductor chips and provide advanced chemicals for the development of next-generation battery technology for EVs.
Circular Economy.&nbsp;Green Dot Bioplastics, a developer and supplier of bioplastic materials for innovative, sustainable end-uses,&nbsp;announced an addition of nine new grades of bioplastics&nbsp;aimed at single-use and plastic packaging markets, as the industry looks to adjust to increasingly strict government mandates and regulations related to single-use plastics. In an effort to support similar conversions, in this case to post-consumer recycled plastics,&nbsp;AVNT announced its post-consumer recycled (PCR) Color Prediction Service&nbsp;for polyolefins and polyethylene terephthalate (PET) resins as well as its new polyolefin antioxidants, Cesa Nox A4R Additives for recycled plastics, thereby lowering adoption obstacles for consumers looking to incorporate post-consumer recycled plastic into their product designs.
EAF.&nbsp;While GrafTech’s 2Q22 results and guidance for the balance of 2022 left analysts and investors unimpressed with the company’s near-term margin and volume headwinds, investors may be missing the longer-term prospects for the company as its graphite electrodes going into electric ark furnaces (EAF) are enabling a transition from high carbon-producing coal furnaces to less environmentally impactful EAF technologies, which also use steel scrap, rather than iron ore, as a raw material.&nbsp;A recent study confirming the lower carbon-generating benefits of EAF&nbsp;versus conventional smelters underscores the environmental tailwind investors may be missing in evaluating EAF’s current volume issues in an environment of declining steel production globally.
Rating and Price Target Changes
ALB –&nbsp;UBS raised its price target (PT) to $265 from $218 but maintained its Neutral rating; Oppenheimer raised its PT to $440 from $368 and reiterated its Outperform rating.
CTVA –&nbsp;Credit Suisse raised its PT to $72 from $68 and reiterated its Outperform rating; UBS raised its PT to $66 from $64 and reiterated its Buy recommendation; CFRA lowered its PT to $61 from $65 and maintained its Hold rating.
EMN –&nbsp;CFRA reiterated its Buy rating and $125 PT; Citigroup downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy; KeyBank raised its PT to $125 from $124 and reiterated its Overweight rating; Deutsche Bank lowered its PT to $115 from $125 and reiterated its Buy rating; Stifel Nicolaus lowered its PT to $134 from $155 and reiterated its Buy rating; Barclays lowered its PT to $110 from $120 and maintained its Equal Weight rating; Wells Fargo lowered its PT to $110 from $115 and reiterated its Overweight rating; RBC raised its PT to $97 from $94 and maintained its Sector Perform rating.
FMC –&nbsp;Credit Suisse lowered its PT to $105 from $109 and reiterated its Underperform rating; CFRA lowered its PT to $120 from $126 and maintained its Hold rating; Mizuho Securities lowered its PT to $144 from $149 and reiterated its Buy rating.
FUL –&nbsp;Berenberg Bank lowered its PT to $82 from $85 and reiterated its Buy recommendation.
HXL –&nbsp;BMO raised its PT to $66 from $57 and maintained its Market Perform rating.
LTHM –&nbsp;CFRA lowered its PT to $28 from $36 and reiterated its Buy rating; Mizuho Securities lowered its PT to $30 from $34 and maintained its Neutral rating; Deutsche Bank raised its PT to $26 from $24 and maintained its Hold rating.
VVV –&nbsp;CFRA downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy and maintained its $34 PT.
Recent WTR Publications and Upcoming Events
Fireside Chat with Management of Westwater Resources, Inc.
Initiation of Coverage – Westwater Resources, Inc.
Management Series Report – Marrone Bio Innovations Inc. CEO Kevin Helash
Management Series Report – Westwater Resources, Inc. Executive Chairman Terence Cryan and CAO Steven Cates
DISCLOSURES

Water Tower Research (“WTR”) is a professional publisher of investment research reports on public companies and, to a lesser extent, private firms (“the Companies”). WTR provides investor-focused content and digital distribution strategies designed to help companies communicate with investors.  WTR is not a registered investment adviser or a broker/dealer nor does WTR provide investment banking services. WTR operates as an exempt investment adviser under the so called “publishers’ exemption” from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. WTR does not provide investment ratings / recommendations or price targets on the companies it reports on. Readers are advised that the research reports are published and provided solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy securities or the rendering of investment advice. The information provided in this report should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as personalized advice. All users and readers of WTR’s reports are cautioned to consult their own independent financial, tax and legal advisors prior to purchasing or selling securities.  Dmitry Silversteyn, who is the writer of this report, covers the BioEconomy and Chemicals &amp; Materials Technology sectors for WTR. Mr. Silversteyn and members of his household have no personal or business-related relationship to the subject company other than providing digital content and any ancillary services WTR may offer.  Unless otherwise indicated, WTR intends to provide continuing coverage of the covered companies. WTR will notify its readers through website postings or other appropriate means if WTR determines to terminate coverage of any of the companies covered.  In certain instances, including this report, WTR will write research covering non-clients. Readers should assume that WTR may seek to turn these non-paying companies into paying clients. Likewise, WTR may seek to transform these non-clients into paying clients of it or of its affiliate, which provides services such as presenting at sponsored investor conferences, distributing press releases, advising on investor relations and broader corporate communications and public relations strategies as well as performing certain other related services (“Ancillary Services”). The companies that WTR covers in our research are not required to purchase or use Ancillary Services of WTR or an affiliate might offer to clients.  The manner of WTR’s potential research compensation and Ancillary Services to covered companies raise actual and perceived conflicts of interest. WTR is committed to manage those conflicts to protect its reputation and the objectivity of employees/analysts by adhering to strictly written compliance guidelines.  The views and analyses included in our research reports are based on current public information that we consider to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or correctness. Neither we nor our analysts, directors, officers, employees, representatives, independent contractors or agents shall be liable for any omissions, errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, foreseeability or the lack of timeliness of, or any delay or interruptions in the transmission of our reports to content users. This lack of liability extends to direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, losses, lost income, lost profit or opportunity costs.  All investment information contained herein should be independently verified by the reader or user of this report. For additional information, all readers of this report are encouraged to visit WTR’s website www.watertowerresearch.com.

Mat-Chem Notes for the Week Ended August 7, 2022

<h3>KEY HIGHLIGHTS</h3>
<div></div>
<ul>
<li>WTR-CMI last week.&nbsp;The sell-off continued last week, with the S&amp;P 500 losing 5.8% and the broader Russell 2000 Index giving up 7.5%. Our WTR-CMI index of 30 chemicals and materials technology companies underperformed the broader market by declining 9.9%, with all the stocks in the index posting W/W losses. ECVT (down 2.1%) and PKE (down 2.3%) outperformed relative to other names, as the raw material cost pressure they are experiencing is more moderate compared with companies heavily reliant on pet-chem-based inputs. PPG also outperformed by declining 5.1%, likely bolstered by its recent investor day. KOP, CMP, and LTHM were the worst performers, as concerns over construction markets grew and investors became more concerned over the impact on inflation on economic growth, including consumers’ ability to purchase more expensive EVs, especially as several manufacturers had to raise prices to offset higher metal and graphite costs.</li>
<li>Farmer concerns grow.&nbsp;The&nbsp;Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) from Creighton University&nbsp;reading for June dropped to 49.8 from May’s 57.7, with 50 being a growth-neutral reading, implying US farmers’ growing concerns over the economy, the impact of rising intertest rates, and ongoing supply chain bottlenecks. Nearly 93% of rural banks surveyed now put the likelihood of a recession at more than 50%.</li>
<li>Efforts to domesticate lithium supply continue.&nbsp;Cypress Development Corp. (OTC: CYDVF), an advanced lithium development company focused on commercializing lithium projects in Nevada, provided an update on the ongoing&nbsp;feasibility study&nbsp;for the company’s Clayton Valley lithium project in Nevada, as well as&nbsp;progress on its pilot plant operations, which have delivered samples to two laboratories in Canada for further testing.</li>
<li>Coatings markets growing above GDP rates.&nbsp;According to a recent report, the&nbsp;waterborne coatings market&nbsp;is expected to grow at a 3.5% CAGR over the next five years, while&nbsp;the low volatile organic compounds (VOC) segment&nbsp;of the coatings industry is expected to post an even faster 6.2% CAGR through 2026, driven by tighter emission regulations and consumers’ growing awareness of VOC’s health and environmental impact. Over the mid-term, this should be a positive for SHW, PPG, AXTA, and RPM.</li>
</ul>
<h3>WTR-CMI WEEKLY PERFORMANCE</h3>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/282/497/original/image_22915513821656025927561.png?1656025930" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="282497"></figure>
<p>Source: YCharts; June 19 close</p>
<h2>Automotive &amp; Transportation Market</h2>
<p>Automotive doldrums continue.&nbsp;ASEA’s May report on new car registrations in the EU&nbsp;showed an 11.2% drop in May, the 11th&nbsp;straight month of Y/Y declines, bringing the YTD decline to 13.7%. We expect June numbers to continue to comp negatively versus the year-ago period, with 2H22 comps easing, which may allow the European market to finally break what would be a year-long string of declines. However, we caution that while comps will get easier in July and beyond, higher auto prices, higher interest rates, and souring consumer sentiment, exacerbated by the continuing war in Ukraine, may constrain whatever recovery may take place. Meanwhile, on a more positive note,&nbsp;auto production lost to semiconductor chip shortages&nbsp;appears to be slowing down, with less than 28,000 added to the tally of losses last week, mostly in APAC region outside of China. Nonetheless, 2.26 million vehicles have already been removed from production expectations for 2022.</p>
<h2>EVs &amp; Battery Ecosystem</h2>
<p>As EV growth continues, solutions are sought to combat high battery metal prices.&nbsp;While China’s overall new vehicle sales continue to decline, the&nbsp;NEV segment is still posting strong Y/Y growth, with May sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) rising 111.5% and YTD sales increasing 117.4%. However, both investors’ and consumers’ concerns are shifting from availability of materials for EV batteries to the costs of said materials, at least in the near to mid-term. Consequently, it is not surprising to see ongoing efforts to find and develop alternate battery chemistries, or whole new technologies to address both concerns. One company leading these efforts is Michigan-based privately held battery start-up Our Next Energy (ONE), which&nbsp;will supply an early prototype of its Gemini “Dual-Chemistry” battery to BMW&nbsp;(whose investment arm was part of the latest funding round of ONE) for testing under real world conditions. The testing is expected to start by the end of 2022 and will focus on proving ONE’s claim of doubling the typical lithium battery range, while also prolonging battery life, all while using cheaper and more plentiful iron and manganese to reduce the need for higher-cost cobalt and nickel in battery cathodes. Meanwhile, Alsym Energy, a Massachusetts-based start-up, is working on battery chemistry and a design that would further reduce, if not&nbsp;eliminate lithium and cobalt from EV battery cathodes, making them both safer and about 50% cheaper versus current designs. And in Europe, work continues on developing solid-state batteries for the EV market, with a consortium of Spanish companies launching the&nbsp;Basquevolt initiative, with the Basque government researching, developing, and producing solid-state batteries, with pilot plant operations targeted to begin in 2025 and ramp up to a 10 GWh annual production rate by 2027.</p>
<h2>Ag-Chem and Ag-Tech</h2>
<p>With planting progress on track, weather concerns rise.&nbsp;Better conditions allowed US farmers to essentially catch up to five-year averages when it comes to&nbsp;corn and soybean plantings. However, while current crop conditions are rated mostly good to excellent, recent scorching weather across the farm belt regions may raise the possibility of less than optimal yields and we will watch these developments over the next several weeks. One thing to keep in mind is the lessons from Brazil, where drought conditions led to angst over yield expectations. However,&nbsp;the country’s second corn crop, also known as safrinha, is now expected to be up 45% Y/Y, driven by higher planted acreage and higher yield expectations versus the drought affected 2021-22 second crop season. This may help alleviate the production shortfall experienced during the first crop period earlier in the year. The news could not come at a better time, as the world is getting increasingly pessimistic regarding&nbsp;the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the global food market, not just in 2022-23, but also longer term.</p>
<p>Doing their part to ensure adequate supply.&nbsp;Against this backdrop of food security concerns, crop input companies are stepping up efforts to ensure their products are made available and at an affordable price to help offset expected declines in Russian, Belorussian, and Ukrainian supply. Nutrien (NYSE: NTR) followed up its recent announcement of production capacity expansion with even more aggressive plans to&nbsp;ramp up production of phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers, both through brownfield expansions and new capacity addition projects expected to come online through 2025 and 2027, respectively.</p>
<h2>In Other News</h2>
<p>Expanding markets served to cushion expected declines.&nbsp;One company in our WTR-CMI index—Valvoline (NYSE: VVV)—has been fielding questions and fighting investor perception of a sun-setting business for several years now, as EVs continue to grow their share of annual car sales and investors grow concerned over the company’s ability to continue to deliver superior growth in what many are seeing as a sun-setting market (lube oil for ICE passenger vehicles). However, the company is not taking these expectations lying down. Earlier, VVV announced its intentions to monetize its bulk and industrial lubes business and concentrate on growing its company-owned and franchised Valvoline Instant Oil Change (VIOC) network. More recently, the company announced that it has opened its first&nbsp;company-owned heavy-duty fleet service center&nbsp;to provide the same high-touch customer service as it currently does through its VIOC network to service to Class 5-8 vehicles that can weigh more than 30,000 pounds. We believe this move will significantly expand VVV’s addressable market in the near to mid-term, while providing a longer tail over the long term, which may ease investor concerns over the stock’s valuation levels.</p>
<p>M&amp;A deal flow continues.&nbsp;The chemicals and materials technology industry has been characterized by considerable M&amp;A activity over the last two to three decades and despite, or perhaps because of the slowing economic outlook and inflationary pressures, portfolio optimization efforts are continuing. Recently,&nbsp;PPG announced&nbsp;that it has completed the divestiture of Eberle Design, Inc. (EDI) to Vance Street Capital. Terms of the transaction were not disclosed. Meanwhile, global chemical and plastic distributor Brenntag (OTC: BNTGY) recently&nbsp;announced that it has entered a partnership&nbsp;with Saudi Al-Azzaz Chemicals Co. via a 75/25 joint venture. Looking to expand its geographic footprint and keep up with the M&amp;A-driven growth of SHW and PPG, AkzoNobel (OTC: AKZOY) recently&nbsp;announced that it reached an agreement&nbsp;with Kansai Paint to acquire the latter’s paints &amp; coatings business in Africa, which generates approximately $300 million in annual sales, with completion expected in 2023, subject to regulatory approvals.</p>
<h2>Rating and Price Target Changes</h2>
<p>EMN –&nbsp;Jefferies downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy and reduced its price target (PT) to $87 from $150.</p>
<p>FMC –&nbsp;CFRA upgraded the stock to Hold from Sell, maintaining its $126 PT.</p>
<p>SHW –&nbsp;UBS lowered its PT to $265 from $279 and maintained its Neutral rating.</p>
<p>VVV –&nbsp;Jefferies lowered its PT to $40 from $44 and reiterated its Buy rating.</p>
<h2>Recent WTR Publications and Upcoming Events</h2>
<p>Management Series Report – Marrone Bio Innovations CEO Kevin Helash</p>
<p>Management Series Report – Westwater Resources Executive Chairman Terence Cryan and CAO Steven Cates</p>
<h2>DISCLOSURES</h2>
<div></div>
<p>Water Tower Research (“WTR”) is a professional publisher of investment research reports on public companies and, to a lesser extent, private firms (“the Companies”). WTR provides investor-focused content and digital distribution strategies designed to help companies communicate with investors.<br><br>WTR is not a registered investment adviser or a broker/dealer nor does WTR provide investment banking services. WTR operates as an exempt investment adviser under the so called “publishers’ exemption” from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. WTR does not provide investment ratings / recommendations or price targets on the companies it reports on. Readers are advised that the research reports are published and provided solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy securities or the rendering of investment advice. The information provided in this report should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as personalized advice. All users and readers of WTR’s reports are cautioned to consult their own independent financial, tax and legal advisors prior to purchasing or selling securities.<br><br>Dmitry Silversteyn, who is the writer of this report, covers the Chemicals &amp; Materials Technology and BioEconomy sectors for WTR. Mr. Silversteyn and members of his household have no personal or business-related relationship to the subject company other than providing digital content and any ancillary services WTR may offer.<br><br>Unless otherwise indicated, WTR intends to provide continuing coverage of the covered companies. WTR will notify its readers through website postings or other appropriate means if WTR determines to terminate coverage of any of the companies covered.<br><br>In certain instances, including this report, WTR will write research covering non-clients. Readers should assume that WTR may seek to turn these non-paying companies into paying clients. Likewise, WTR may seek to transform these non-clients into paying clients of it or of its affiliate, which provides services such as presenting at sponsored investor conferences, distributing press releases, advising on investor relations and broader corporate communications and public relations strategies as well as performing certain other related services (“Ancillary Services”). The companies that WTR covers in our research are not required to purchase or use Ancillary Services of WTR or an affiliate might offer to clients.<br><br>The manner of WTR’s potential research compensation and Ancillary Services to covered companies raise actual and perceived conflicts of interest. WTR is committed to manage those conflicts to protect its reputation and the objectivity of employees/analysts by adhering to strictly written compliance guidelines.<br><br>The views and analyses included in our research reports are based on current public information that we consider to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or correctness. Neither we nor our analysts, directors, officers, employees, representatives, independent contractors or agents shall be liable for any omissions, errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, foreseeability or the lack of timeliness of, or any delay or interruptions in the transmission of our reports to content users. This lack of liability extends to direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, losses, lost income, lost profit or opportunity costs.<br><br>All investment information contained herein should be independently verified by the reader or user of this report. For additional information, all readers of this report are encouraged to visit WTR’s website www.watertowerresearch.com.</p>

KEY HIGHLIGHTS


WTR-CMI last week.&nbsp;The sell-off continued last week, with the S&amp;P 500 losing 5.8% and the broader Russell 2000 Index giving up 7.5%. Our WTR-CMI index of 30 chemicals and materials technology companies underperformed the broader market by declining 9.9%, with all the stocks in the index posting W/W losses. ECVT (down 2.1%) and PKE (down 2.3%) outperformed relative to other names, as the raw material cost pressure they are experiencing is more moderate compared with companies heavily reliant on pet-chem-based inputs. PPG also outperformed by declining 5.1%, likely bolstered by its recent investor day. KOP, CMP, and LTHM were the worst performers, as concerns over construction markets grew and investors became more concerned over the impact on inflation on economic growth, including consumers’ ability to purchase more expensive EVs, especially as several manufacturers had to raise prices to offset higher metal and graphite costs.
Farmer concerns grow.&nbsp;The&nbsp;Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) from Creighton University&nbsp;reading for June dropped to 49.8 from May’s 57.7, with 50 being a growth-neutral reading, implying US farmers’ growing concerns over the economy, the impact of rising intertest rates, and ongoing supply chain bottlenecks. Nearly 93% of rural banks surveyed now put the likelihood of a recession at more than 50%.
Efforts to domesticate lithium supply continue.&nbsp;Cypress Development Corp. (OTC: CYDVF), an advanced lithium development company focused on commercializing lithium projects in Nevada, provided an update on the ongoing&nbsp;feasibility study&nbsp;for the company’s Clayton Valley lithium project in Nevada, as well as&nbsp;progress on its pilot plant operations, which have delivered samples to two laboratories in Canada for further testing.
Coatings markets growing above GDP rates.&nbsp;According to a recent report, the&nbsp;waterborne coatings market&nbsp;is expected to grow at a 3.5% CAGR over the next five years, while&nbsp;the low volatile organic compounds (VOC) segment&nbsp;of the coatings industry is expected to post an even faster 6.2% CAGR through 2026, driven by tighter emission regulations and consumers’ growing awareness of VOC’s health and environmental impact. Over the mid-term, this should be a positive for SHW, PPG, AXTA, and RPM.

WTR-CMI WEEKLY PERFORMANCE

Source: YCharts; June 19 close
Automotive &amp; Transportation Market
Automotive doldrums continue.&nbsp;ASEA’s May report on new car registrations in the EU&nbsp;showed an 11.2% drop in May, the 11th&nbsp;straight month of Y/Y declines, bringing the YTD decline to 13.7%. We expect June numbers to continue to comp negatively versus the year-ago period, with 2H22 comps easing, which may allow the European market to finally break what would be a year-long string of declines. However, we caution that while comps will get easier in July and beyond, higher auto prices, higher interest rates, and souring consumer sentiment, exacerbated by the continuing war in Ukraine, may constrain whatever recovery may take place. Meanwhile, on a more positive note,&nbsp;auto production lost to semiconductor chip shortages&nbsp;appears to be slowing down, with less than 28,000 added to the tally of losses last week, mostly in APAC region outside of China. Nonetheless, 2.26 million vehicles have already been removed from production expectations for 2022.
EVs &amp; Battery Ecosystem
As EV growth continues, solutions are sought to combat high battery metal prices.&nbsp;While China’s overall new vehicle sales continue to decline, the&nbsp;NEV segment is still posting strong Y/Y growth, with May sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) rising 111.5% and YTD sales increasing 117.4%. However, both investors’ and consumers’ concerns are shifting from availability of materials for EV batteries to the costs of said materials, at least in the near to mid-term. Consequently, it is not surprising to see ongoing efforts to find and develop alternate battery chemistries, or whole new technologies to address both concerns. One company leading these efforts is Michigan-based privately held battery start-up Our Next Energy (ONE), which&nbsp;will supply an early prototype of its Gemini “Dual-Chemistry” battery to BMW&nbsp;(whose investment arm was part of the latest funding round of ONE) for testing under real world conditions. The testing is expected to start by the end of 2022 and will focus on proving ONE’s claim of doubling the typical lithium battery range, while also prolonging battery life, all while using cheaper and more plentiful iron and manganese to reduce the need for higher-cost cobalt and nickel in battery cathodes. Meanwhile, Alsym Energy, a Massachusetts-based start-up, is working on battery chemistry and a design that would further reduce, if not&nbsp;eliminate lithium and cobalt from EV battery cathodes, making them both safer and about 50% cheaper versus current designs. And in Europe, work continues on developing solid-state batteries for the EV market, with a consortium of Spanish companies launching the&nbsp;Basquevolt initiative, with the Basque government researching, developing, and producing solid-state batteries, with pilot plant operations targeted to begin in 2025 and ramp up to a 10 GWh annual production rate by 2027.
Ag-Chem and Ag-Tech
With planting progress on track, weather concerns rise.&nbsp;Better conditions allowed US farmers to essentially catch up to five-year averages when it comes to&nbsp;corn and soybean plantings. However, while current crop conditions are rated mostly good to excellent, recent scorching weather across the farm belt regions may raise the possibility of less than optimal yields and we will watch these developments over the next several weeks. One thing to keep in mind is the lessons from Brazil, where drought conditions led to angst over yield expectations. However,&nbsp;the country’s second corn crop, also known as safrinha, is now expected to be up 45% Y/Y, driven by higher planted acreage and higher yield expectations versus the drought affected 2021-22 second crop season. This may help alleviate the production shortfall experienced during the first crop period earlier in the year. The news could not come at a better time, as the world is getting increasingly pessimistic regarding&nbsp;the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the global food market, not just in 2022-23, but also longer term.
Doing their part to ensure adequate supply.&nbsp;Against this backdrop of food security concerns, crop input companies are stepping up efforts to ensure their products are made available and at an affordable price to help offset expected declines in Russian, Belorussian, and Ukrainian supply. Nutrien (NYSE: NTR) followed up its recent announcement of production capacity expansion with even more aggressive plans to&nbsp;ramp up production of phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers, both through brownfield expansions and new capacity addition projects expected to come online through 2025 and 2027, respectively.
In Other News
Expanding markets served to cushion expected declines.&nbsp;One company in our WTR-CMI index—Valvoline (NYSE: VVV)—has been fielding questions and fighting investor perception of a sun-setting business for several years now, as EVs continue to grow their share of annual car sales and investors grow concerned over the company’s ability to continue to deliver superior growth in what many are seeing as a sun-setting market (lube oil for ICE passenger vehicles). However, the company is not taking these expectations lying down. Earlier, VVV announced its intentions to monetize its bulk and industrial lubes business and concentrate on growing its company-owned and franchised Valvoline Instant Oil Change (VIOC) network. More recently, the company announced that it has opened its first&nbsp;company-owned heavy-duty fleet service center&nbsp;to provide the same high-touch customer service as it currently does through its VIOC network to service to Class 5-8 vehicles that can weigh more than 30,000 pounds. We believe this move will significantly expand VVV’s addressable market in the near to mid-term, while providing a longer tail over the long term, which may ease investor concerns over the stock’s valuation levels.
M&amp;A deal flow continues.&nbsp;The chemicals and materials technology industry has been characterized by considerable M&amp;A activity over the last two to three decades and despite, or perhaps because of the slowing economic outlook and inflationary pressures, portfolio optimization efforts are continuing. Recently,&nbsp;PPG announced&nbsp;that it has completed the divestiture of Eberle Design, Inc. (EDI) to Vance Street Capital. Terms of the transaction were not disclosed. Meanwhile, global chemical and plastic distributor Brenntag (OTC: BNTGY) recently&nbsp;announced that it has entered a partnership&nbsp;with Saudi Al-Azzaz Chemicals Co. via a 75/25 joint venture. Looking to expand its geographic footprint and keep up with the M&amp;A-driven growth of SHW and PPG, AkzoNobel (OTC: AKZOY) recently&nbsp;announced that it reached an agreement&nbsp;with Kansai Paint to acquire the latter’s paints &amp; coatings business in Africa, which generates approximately $300 million in annual sales, with completion expected in 2023, subject to regulatory approvals.
Rating and Price Target Changes
EMN –&nbsp;Jefferies downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy and reduced its price target (PT) to $87 from $150.
FMC –&nbsp;CFRA upgraded the stock to Hold from Sell, maintaining its $126 PT.
SHW –&nbsp;UBS lowered its PT to $265 from $279 and maintained its Neutral rating.
VVV –&nbsp;Jefferies lowered its PT to $40 from $44 and reiterated its Buy rating.
Recent WTR Publications and Upcoming Events
Management Series Report – Marrone Bio Innovations CEO Kevin Helash
Management Series Report – Westwater Resources Executive Chairman Terence Cryan and CAO Steven Cates
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Mat-Chem Notes for the Week Ended June 19, 2022

United States

The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The index was developed with a base value of 135.00 as of December 31, 1986.

Russell 2000 Index (RTY INDEX)

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Mat-Chem Notes for the Week Ended June 19, 2022

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