European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

International Distributions Services / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Approval and Safeguards: The UK government approved EP Group's £5.3 billion acquisition of IDS, with legally binding commitments to retain Royal Mail's headquarters, tax residence, and universal service obligations.</li>
<li>IDS faces declining mail volumes, delivery fines, and the need for operational reforms; EP Group aims to revitalize the company leveraging expertise in energy and logistics sectors.</li>
<li>A done deal, in my view. The acquisition is expected to close in Q1 2025.</li>
</ul>


Approval and Safeguards: The UK government approved EP Group's £5.3 billion acquisition of IDS, with legally binding commitments to retain Royal Mail's headquarters, tax residence, and universal service obligations.
IDS faces declining mail volumes, delivery fines, and the need for operational reforms; EP Group aims to revitalize the company leveraging expertise in energy and logistics sectors.
A done deal, in my view. The acquisition is expected to close in Q1 2025.


Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see up to five M&amp;A-related intra-review changes for the F250 index in the run up to the June 2025 review. Many could be <em>very</em> high impact.</li>
<li>Separately, there could be one regular index change for the F250 index in June 2025. At present, we do not see any changes for the F100 index.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
We see up to five M&amp;A-related intra-review changes for the F250 index in the run up to the June 2025 review. Many could be very high impact.
Separately, there could be one regular index change for the F250 index in June 2025. At present, we do not see any changes for the F100 index.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: Multiple High-Impact Intra-Review Index Additions Likely

<ul>
<li>On 29 May, the last day of the extended PUSU deadline, Royal Mail owner <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/international-distributions-services-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22115:1" rel="noopener">International Distributions Services (IDS LN)</a> agreed to a £3,568 million takeover offer (73% premium) from EP Group.</li>
<li>The IDS board has obtained legally binding guarantees to safeguard customers, employees, and stakeholders, including support from Labour Party (likely winner of next UK general elections).</li>
<li>Investors remain uncertain about the deal's success, given a gross spread of 9.46%, although much of this may be attributed to the anticipated delay in receiving funds. Long at 335p.</li>
</ul>


On 29 May, the last day of the extended PUSU deadline, Royal Mail owner International Distributions Services (IDS LN) agreed to a £3,568 million takeover offer (73% premium) from EP Group.
The IDS board has obtained legally binding guarantees to safeguard customers, employees, and stakeholders, including support from Labour Party (likely winner of next UK general elections).
Investors remain uncertain about the deal's success, given a gross spread of 9.46%, although much of this may be attributed to the anticipated delay in receiving funds. Long at 335p.


EP Group/International Distribution Services: Agreed Offer

<ul>
<li>The UK Chancellor stated that any bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/international-distributions-services-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22115:1" rel="noopener">International Distributions Services (IDS LN)</a>  (Royal Mail owner) would be thoroughly evaluated for national security considerations to prevent any risks to essential infrastructure.</li>
<li>The Board is "minded to accept" the improved 370p takeover proposal (4.8x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA) from Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky's EP Group, should a formal bid is made.</li>
<li>The improved proposal seems fair. GLS is profitable, while Royal Mail aims break-even by March2025e. Concerns about potential developments post-offer pose a potential political issue. Gross spread is 13.5%.</li>
</ul>


The UK Chancellor stated that any bid for International Distributions Services (IDS LN)  (Royal Mail owner) would be thoroughly evaluated for national security considerations to prevent any risks to essential infrastructure.
The Board is "minded to accept" the improved 370p takeover proposal (4.8x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA) from Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky's EP Group, should a formal bid is made.
The improved proposal seems fair. GLS is profitable, while Royal Mail aims break-even by March2025e. Concerns about potential developments post-offer pose a potential political issue. Gross spread is 13.5%.


EP Group/IDS (Royal Mail): Politically Sensitive

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for the F100 and F250 indices in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see up to three M&amp;A-related intra-review changes in the next few months.</li>
<li>Our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for the F100 index and at least two changes for the F250 index during the March 2025 rebalance.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for the F100 and F250 indices in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
We see up to three M&amp;A-related intra-review changes in the next few months.
Our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for the F100 index and at least two changes for the F250 index during the March 2025 rebalance.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar25: High-Impact Intra-Review Additions Possible

United Kingdom

International Distributions Services plc provides postal and delivery services. The Company offers letter and parcel delivery services. International Distributions Services serves consumers, sole traders, SMEs, large businesses, and access operators worldwide.

International Distributions Services (IDS LN)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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International Distributions Services (IDS LN)

Green Light from British Government

UK government approves EP Group's £5.3 billion acquisition of IDS, with commitments to retain Royal Mail's headquarters and service obligations.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: Multiple High-Impact Intra-Review Index Additions Likely

Most of the intra-review replacement candidates have well in excess of 10x ADV to buy if they get added to the F250 index. Some of these names...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

EP Group/International Distribution Services: Agreed Offer

On 29 May, the last day of the extended PUSU deadline, Royal Mail owner International Distributions Services (IDS LN) agreed to a £3,568 million...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

EP Group/IDS (Royal Mail): Politically Sensitive

The UK Chancellor will thoroughly evaluate any bid for International Distributions Services to prevent risks to essential infrastructure, while...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar25: High-Impact Intra-Review Additions Possible

Most of the names leading the race for F250 addition have more than 10x ADV to trade and some of these names could get added on an intra-review basis.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Green Light from British Government

​UK government approves EP Group's £5.3 billion acquisition of IDS, with commitments to retain Royal Mail's headquarters and service obligations.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: Multiple High-Impact Intra-Review Index Additions Likely

Most of the intra-review replacement candidates have well in excess of 10x ADV to buy if they get added to the F250 index. Some of these names...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

EP Group/International Distribution Services: Agreed Offer

On 29 May, the last day of the extended PUSU deadline, Royal Mail owner International Distributions Services (IDS LN) agreed to a £3,568 million...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

EP Group/IDS (Royal Mail): Politically Sensitive

​The UK Chancellor will thoroughly evaluate any bid for International Distributions Services to prevent risks to essential infrastructure, while...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar25: High-Impact Intra-Review Additions Possible

Most of the names leading the race for F250 addition have more than 10x ADV to trade and some of these names could get added on an intra-review basis.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

UK government approves EP Group's £5.3 billion acquisition of IDS, with commitments to retain Royal Mail's headquarters and service obligations.

The UK Chancellor will thoroughly evaluate any bid for International Distributions Services to prevent risks to essential infrastructure, while...