Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

We examine the EM FX space for opportunities in the aftermath of the hawkish FOMC meeting last week which led to a sharp rise in the US dollar. Two currencies that have underperformed and stand out as buying opportunities are the Chilean peso (CLP) and the Romanian leu (RON).Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

We examine the EM FX space for opportunities in the aftermath of the hawkish FOMC meeting last week which led to a sharp rise in the US dollar. Two currencies that have underperformed and stand out as buying opportunities are the Chilean peso (CLP) and the Romanian leu (RON).Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Did the Dollar Spike Create Opportunities in EM FX?

EM FX volatility has dropped to its lowest level since the start of pandemic, which is likely leading to a positive scenario for currencies. In this note, we highlight the currencies most likely to benefit in such an environment.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

EM FX volatility has dropped to its lowest level since the start of pandemic, which is likely leading to a positive scenario for currencies. In this note, we highlight the currencies most likely to benefit in such an environment.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Declining EM FX Volatility Foreshadows a Positive Environment

In this note, we identify the currencies that have outperformed and underperformed as EM currencies have overall appreciated with the dollar depreciating since the end of March. We also place our outstanding trade recommendations in the context of the relative performances of EM currencies.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

In this note, we identify the currencies that have outperformed and underperformed as EM currencies have overall appreciated with the dollar depreciating since the end of March. We also place our outstanding trade recommendations in the context of the relative performances of EM currencies.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Updating the Winners and Losers in the EM Turnaround

In this note, we go over the rationale behind the recent outperformance of the Hungarian forint and make the case that the currency can continue to appreciate in the near term.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

In this note, we go over the rationale behind the recent outperformance of the Hungarian forint and make the case that the currency can continue to appreciate in the near term.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Hungary’s Outperformance Is Playing Catch-Up

In this week’s Alpha Bites, we recommend going long the Romanian leu (RON) against the Czech koruna (CZK) in a beta-neutral ratio. The growth bounce this year from last year's contraction is expected to be much stronger in Romania than in Czechia. CZK though has outperformed RON and most EM currencies because of the imminent rate hikes, which are already priced to a reasonable extent. RON was being weighed by the risk of downgrades, which did not materialize in the April semi-annual reviews by the rating agencies. Indeed, S&amp;P raised its outlook to stable from negative.

In this week’s Alpha Bites, we recommend going long the Romanian leu (RON) against the Czech koruna (CZK) in a beta-neutral ratio. The growth bounce this year from last year's contraction is expected to be much stronger in Romania than in Czechia. CZK though has outperformed RON and most EM currencies because of the imminent rate hikes, which are already priced to a reasonable extent. RON was being weighed by the risk of downgrades, which did not materialize in the April semi-annual reviews by the rating agencies. Indeed, S&amp;P raised its outlook to stable from negative.

Alpha Bites: Long Romanian Leu (RON) Vs Short Czech Koruna (CZK)

Romania

The Romanian leu is the official currency of Romania. The US Dollar is the official currency of Unites States of America.

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RON (USDRON CURNCY)

FX Dashboard: Did the Dollar Spike Create Opportunities in EM FX?

We examine the EM FX space for opportunities in the aftermath of the hawkish FOMC meeting last week which led to a sharp rise in the US dollar.

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Declining EM FX Volatility Foreshadows a Positive Environment

With EM FX volatility dropping to its lowest level since the start of pandemic, we highlight the currencies most likely to benefit in the likely...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Updating the Winners and Losers in the EM Turnaround

We identify the currencies that have outperformed and underperformed with the dollar depreciating since the end of March and place our outstanding...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Hungary’s Outperformance Is Playing Catch-Up

In this note, we go over the rationale behind the recent outperformance of the Hungarian forint and make the case that the currency can continue to...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Alpha Bites: Long Romanian Leu (RON) Vs Short Czech Koruna (CZK)

We recommend going long the Romanian leu against the Czech koruna as the expected rate hikes in Czechia are now priced and the downgrade concerns...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)