Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> announced a buyback on 5 August. That was its 17th ¥50bn buyback in 15 years. And its first "second buyback within a single year" since 2014.</li>
<li>History suggests outperformance of Peers until the end of the buyback (and it has done well here), then underperformance post-buyback.</li>
<li>Consensus forward EPS and EBIT ratios vs Peers suggest Canon shares have more to catch up, but some of that would involve reclaiming historical "quality premium."</li>
</ul>



Canon Inc (7751 JP) announced a buyback on 5 August. That was its 17th ¥50bn buyback in 15 years. And its first "second buyback within a single year" since 2014.
History suggests outperformance of Peers until the end of the buyback (and it has done well here), then underperformance post-buyback.
Consensus forward EPS and EBIT ratios vs Peers suggest Canon shares have more to catch up, but some of that would involve reclaiming historical "quality premium."


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> has just started its 17th buyback in 15 years. Like the 16 before, this one is for ¥50bn. </li>
<li>The patterns/dynamics of the canon buybacks in the past are remarkable when compared to buybacks of other companies. </li>
<li>There are outperformance and under-performance patterns vs Peers, and it is worth taking note if you have a position to trade. </li>
</ul>



Canon Inc (7751 JP) has just started its 17th buyback in 15 years. Like the 16 before, this one is for ¥50bn. 
The patterns/dynamics of the canon buybacks in the past are remarkable when compared to buybacks of other companies. 
There are outperformance and under-performance patterns vs Peers, and it is worth taking note if you have a position to trade. 


Looking at Canon Buyback Dynamics History - Patterns Vs Peers Gives Execution Hints

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> reported Q2 earnings early last week. Shares dropped 4% the next day but closed down only 1%. Now they are above the prior close. </li>
<li>They biked the dividend nicely (was ¥45/share last year, guided to ¥50 this year, but made ¥60/share instead. </li>
<li>And now they have announced another ¥50bn buyback on top of the one announced in May. Fourth time in 14 years a second tranche is announced in one year. </li>
</ul>



Canon Inc (7751 JP) reported Q2 earnings early last week. Shares dropped 4% the next day but closed down only 1%. Now they are above the prior close. 
They biked the dividend nicely (was ¥45/share last year, guided to ¥50 this year, but made ¥60/share instead. 
And now they have announced another ¥50bn buyback on top of the one announced in May. Fourth time in 14 years a second tranche is announced in one year. 


Canon (7751) - Second Buyback This Year - Last Happened in 2014

<ul>
<li>Overnight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> has released an <a href="https://www.global.toshiba/content/dam/toshiba/ww/ir/corporate/news/20220719_2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">update</a> "Progress Report on Discussions with Potential Investors and Sponsors. Four advance to the second round, including both PE and strategic investors.  </li>
<li>Nikkei <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Toshiba-in-turmoil/Japan-Industrial-Partners-Bain-advance-in-bidding-for-Toshiba" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> those advancing were Bain, CVC, Brookfield, and JIP-JIC. Blackstone did not advance. Yesterday, Reuters reported that KKR had declined to bid, but might join another bid.</li>
<li>Now parties will start due diligence, and Toshiba will examine bids for "measures to enhance corporate value" and certainty of execution (given national security-sensitive issues, and funding). </li>
</ul>


Overnight, Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has released an update "Progress Report on Discussions with Potential Investors and Sponsors. Four advance to the second round, including both PE and strategic investors.  
Nikkei reported those advancing were Bain, CVC, Brookfield, and JIP-JIC. Blackstone did not advance. Yesterday, Reuters reported that KKR had declined to bid, but might join another bid.
Now parties will start due diligence, and Toshiba will examine bids for "measures to enhance corporate value" and certainty of execution (given national security-sensitive issues, and funding). 


Toshiba (6502) Update - Shares Down Since Last Look, "News" Isn't Really. IRR Grid.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari Inc (4385 JP)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX)</a> at the close on 28 July.</li>
<li>There are a lot of FFW changes, mainly reductions. This leads to large funding inflows on the large index stocks.</li>
<li>We estimate the inclusion of Mercari and the FFW changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 0.56% leading to a one-way trade of JPY 442.23bn (US$3.25bn).</li>
</ul>



Mercari Inc (4385 JP) will be added to the Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX) at the close on 28 July.
There are a lot of FFW changes, mainly reductions. This leads to large funding inflows on the large index stocks.
We estimate the inclusion of Mercari and the FFW changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 0.56% leading to a one-way trade of JPY 442.23bn (US$3.25bn).


TOPIX July Rebalance: Mercari Inclusion, FFW Changes, US$6.5bn To Trade

Japan

RICOH COMPANY, LTD. manufactures and markets office automation equipment, electronic devices, and photographic instruments.  The Company's diverse product line includes facsimiles, image scanners, printers, digital cameras, and personal computers, as well as a full range of analog, digital, and color copiers. Ricoh operates with a network of sales offices and tie-ups worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP)

Canon (7751) - Buyback Progress Update

Canon recently set a 2nd ¥50bn buyback for 2022. Canon Buybacks historically take 15-20 days. This is on track for 15-18. Usually Canon lags peers...

Travis Lundy

Looking at Canon Buyback Dynamics History - Patterns Vs Peers Gives Execution Hints

Canon has done 6 buybacks in the last 15 years. They all have particular terms and patterns in common and that can help guide execution.

Travis Lundy

Canon (7751) - Second Buyback This Year - Last Happened in 2014

Canon last week announced OK Q2 earnings, and higher FY22 guidance, raising it for the second quarter in a row. It also hiked its div guidance. Now...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba (6502) Update - Shares Down Since Last Look, "News" Isn't Really. IRR Grid.

Toshiba (6502) is -8% vs Peer Basket after the late June pop on a "¥7,000 deal." Semi/memory peers weaker while industrials better. That lifts IRR...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX July Rebalance: Mercari Inclusion, FFW Changes, US$6.5bn To Trade

Mercari will be added to the TPX at the close on 28 July. There are a lot of FFW changes that will result in one-way turnover of 0.56% leading to a...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)