Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes are still testing (and holding above) critical supports. This includes MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX</li>
<li>Our overall outlook remains neutral, and we continue to see many attractive buying opportunities, especially out of Japan, India, and a new one -- Brazil.</li>
<li>Buy ideas focus on the Consumer Discretionary and Financials Sectors, with the vast majority of stock recommendations from Japan, India, and Brazil</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes are still testing (and holding above) critical supports. This includes MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX
Our overall outlook remains neutral, and we continue to see many attractive buying opportunities, especially out of Japan, India, and a new one -- Brazil.
Buy ideas focus on the Consumer Discretionary and Financials Sectors, with the vast majority of stock recommendations from Japan, India, and Brazil


Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Although Japan is not out of the woods in terms of COVID-19 and the vaccine is not yet found, let alone distributed, investors have rushed to own <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tkp-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28305:1" rel="noopener"> TKP Corporation (3479 JP)</a> as it was seemingly cheap in terms of PBR. The reality was that COVID-19 economic impact caused a weak earning and a secondary offering that boosted the book value has made the company's PBR looks cheap. TKP is the only one with negative earnings compared to its peers, underlining the economic reality that the company is more exposed to.</p>
<p>TKP's share price has risen more than doubled to some of its peers amidst the tough business outlook. Its peers such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kenedix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11321:1" rel="noopener">Kenedix Inc (4321 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/katitas-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26073:1" rel="noopener">Katitas Co Ltd (8919 JP)</a> share price rose almost double but their business remains profitable during COVID-19 while TKP's earnings have turned negative. <strong>Turned Bearish on TKP on slow business condition improvement and the <em>meteoric</em> share price increase. </strong></p>

Although Japan is not out of the woods in terms of COVID-19 and the vaccine is not yet found, let alone distributed, investors have rushed to own  TKP Corporation (3479 JP) as it was seemingly cheap in terms of PBR. The reality was that COVID-19 economic impact caused a weak earning and a secondary offering that boosted the book value has made the company's PBR looks cheap. TKP is the only one with negative earnings compared to its peers, underlining the economic reality that the company is more exposed to.
TKP's share price has risen more than doubled to some of its peers amidst the tough business outlook. Its peers such as Kenedix Inc (4321 JP) and Katitas Co Ltd (8919 JP) share price rose almost double but their business remains profitable during COVID-19 while TKP's earnings have turned negative. Turned Bearish on TKP on slow business condition improvement and the meteoric share price increase. 

TKP (3479): Slow Recovery yet Share Price Has More than Doubled?

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/134/986/original/2020-05-22_06-35-57.png?1590096982" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="134986"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, we shall review yesterday's announcements:-</p><div><ul>
<li>The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 54 results announcements was 18:7:29. The average change in Results Score was -2.1.</li>
<li>For the 24 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 10:1:13, and the average Forecast/Revision Score was -3.3. Only one-third of companies reporting full-year results chose to make current year forecasts. </li>
<li>104 companies will announce results today, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujifilm-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16353:1" rel="noopener">FUJIFILM (4901 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meiji-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15996:1" rel="noopener">Meiji (2269 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3357:1" rel="noopener">Tokyu (9005 JP)</a>.  </li>
</ul></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsIn the DETAIL below, we shall review yesterday's announcements:-
The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 54 results announcements was 18:7:29. The average change in Results Score was -2.1.
For the 24 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 10:1:13, and the average Forecast/Revision Score was -3.3. Only one-third of companies reporting full-year results chose to make current year forecasts. 
104 companies will announce results today, including FUJIFILM (4901 JP), Meiji (2269 JP), and Tokyu (9005 JP).  


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 21st May - Skylark, Resorttrust, Makita

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/111/668/original/image_43774002421577073129098.png?1577073126" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="111668"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source; Capital IQ</div>
<p>In the past, the share price is almost always following analyst recommendation but the most troubling thing about TKP is its high valuation. TKP is not exactly without a competitor in Japan, albeit TKP has the biggest market share. TKP business model is a flexible conference room rental provider in which the management source idle assets in Japan and resell them through the internet started with entrepreneurs and of late to listed corporates as well.</p>
<p>The company's profitability is short of that mind-blowing numbers and it has a massive debt in its balance sheet as well. <strong>Does paying 3x more than its peers justify for a conference room rental business with low profitability? </strong></p>
<p>While investors are happy to pay a premium for its dominant market share in Japan, they should be cautioned if they were to pay the same valuation level for TKP's overseas venture. The flexible working space outside of Japan has been filled with innovative competitors. With a limited success potential for its overseas venture, investors should start to sell/short-sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tkp-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28305:1" rel="noopener"> TKP Corporation (3479 JP)</a> .</p>


Source; Capital IQ
In the past, the share price is almost always following analyst recommendation but the most troubling thing about TKP is its high valuation. TKP is not exactly without a competitor in Japan, albeit TKP has the biggest market share. TKP business model is a flexible conference room rental provider in which the management source idle assets in Japan and resell them through the internet started with entrepreneurs and of late to listed corporates as well.
The company's profitability is short of that mind-blowing numbers and it has a massive debt in its balance sheet as well. Does paying 3x more than its peers justify for a conference room rental business with low profitability? 
While investors are happy to pay a premium for its dominant market share in Japan, they should be cautioned if they were to pay the same valuation level for TKP's overseas venture. The flexible working space outside of Japan has been filled with innovative competitors. With a limited success potential for its overseas venture, investors should start to sell/short-sell  TKP Corporation (3479 JP) .

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies, BBSP Asia

Federico D'Inca

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies

BBSP Asia

Sony Financial Holdings / Technical Analysis

<p>Mid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) in terms of Relative Value vs MXAP<br>• HSCEI/MXAP ratio is moving in a range pattern. Therefore downgrade HSCEI from increase exposure to hold. While HSI/MXAP ratio remains above a trend line support (preference for a tactical HSI outperformance over HSCEI).<br>• Keep “overweight” position on HSI, Nikkei, ASX and TWSE.<br>• Maintain “Hold for KOSPI and Nifty vs MXAP</p><p>Should you have any questions and wish to speak with one of our analysts, please don’t hesitate to…</p>

Mid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) in terms of Relative Value vs MXAP • HSCEI/MXAP ratio is moving in a range pattern. Therefore downgrade HSCEI from increase exposure to hold. While HSI/MXAP ratio remains above a trend line support (preference for a tactical HSI outperformance over HSCEI). • Keep “overweight” position on HSI, Nikkei, ASX and TWSE. • Maintain “Hold for KOSPI and Nifty vs MXAPShould you have any questions and wish to speak with one of our analysts, please don’t hesitate to…

BBSP Equity Asia Weekly Research 10th January 2018

Japan

RESORTTRUST, INC. plans, develops, markets, and operates timeshare resort hotels under the "XIV" and "SUN MEMBERS" brand name.  The Company's resort facilities are located in the suburb of major Japanese cities.  Resorttrust operates golf courses.

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Resorttrust Inc (4681 JP)

Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Europe $STOXX 50, Japan $TOPIX $Nikkei 225, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising $DXY, Global Sovereign Yields Remain Major Headwinds for global...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 21st May - Skylark, Resorttrust, Makita

In the DETAIL below, we shall review yesterday's announcements:- The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 54 results announcements was...

Campbell Gunn

TKP (3479) - A Working Wework?

In the past, the share price is almost always following analyst recommendation but the most troubling thing about TKP is its high valuation. TKP...

Henry Soediarko

BBSP Equity Asia Weekly Research 10th January 2018

Mid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) in terms of Relative Value vs MXAP• HSCEI/MXAP ratio is moving in a range pattern. Therefore downgrade...

BBSP Asia

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Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Europe $STOXX 50, Japan $TOPIX $Nikkei 225, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising $DXY, Global Sovereign Yields Remain Major Headwinds for global...

Vermilion Research

TKP (3479): Slow Recovery yet Share Price Has More than Doubled?

TKP's share price has risen doubled compared to some of its peers amidst the tough business outlook. Turned Bearish on TKP on slow business...

Henry Soediarko

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 21st May - Skylark, Resorttrust, Makita

In the DETAIL below, we shall review yesterday's announcements:- The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 54 results announcements was...

Campbell Gunn

TKP (3479) - A Working Wework?

In the past, the share price is almost always following analyst recommendation but the most troubling thing about TKP is its high valuation. TKP...

Henry Soediarko

BBSP Equity Asia Weekly Research 10th January 2018

Mid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) in terms of Relative Value vs MXAP• HSCEI/MXAP ratio is moving in a range pattern. Therefore downgrade...

BBSP Asia