Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<div><p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.</p></div><div>We are almost three quarters of the way through the review period. There are 3 potential inclusions at the review - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centuria-capital-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15546:1" rel="noopener">Centuria Capital (CNI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinnacle-investment-manageme" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20624:1" rel="noopener">Wilson (PNI AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sealink-travel-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6400:1" rel="noopener">Sealink Travel (SLK AU)</a> while the potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuix-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31040:1" rel="noopener">Nuix Limited (NXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nrw-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9271:1" rel="noopener">NRW Holdings (NWH AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13914:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Resources (GXY AU)</a> is placed in the inclusion zone but is unlikely to be added to the index given its pending merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> is a close add and the corresponding deletion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources (WGX AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>There is a large impact expected on the inclusions while the impact on the deletions is lower.</div><div></div><div>For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>, the short interest is close to the estimated passive selling. For the other two deletes, short interest is a lot smaller than the estimated passive selling and there will be more shorts created from now to rebalance implementation day.</div>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.We are almost three quarters of the way through the review period. There are 3 potential inclusions at the review - Centuria Capital (CNI AU), Wilson (PNI AU) and Sealink Travel (SLK AU) while the potential deletions are Nuix Limited (NXL AU), NRW Holdings (NWH AU) and G8 Education (GEM AU).
Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) is placed in the inclusion zone but is unlikely to be added to the index given its pending merger with Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU).
De Grey Mining (DEG AU) is a close add and the corresponding deletion is Westgold Resources (WGX AU).There is a large impact expected on the inclusions while the impact on the deletions is lower.For G8 Education (GEM AU), the short interest is close to the estimated passive selling. For the other two deletes, short interest is a lot smaller than the estimated passive selling and there will be more shorts created from now to rebalance implementation day.

ASX200 Sep21 Index Rebalance Preview: Large Impact Names

<p>Post market close today, S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices announced the list of changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the June index review that will be effective after the close of trading on 18 June.</p><p>There are 3 sets of the changes to the index at the June review.</p><p>The inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chalice-gold-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20193:1" rel="noopener">Chalice Gold Mines (CHN AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a>. </p><p>The deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perenti-global-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20505:1" rel="noopener">Perenti Global (PRN AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/resolute-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1960:1" rel="noopener">Resolute Mining (RSG AU)</a>. </p><p>There are only 5 trading days to implementation of the changes and quite a lot to trade for passive funds. There are no real surprises and there will be pre-positioning in some of the names.</p><p>Short interest has been dropping on the inclusions and rising on the deletions, another sign of pre-positioning prior to the announcement of the changes. We estimate more than half the passive flow has already been positioned for.</p>

Post market close today, S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices announced the list of changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the June index review that will be effective after the close of trading on 18 June.There are 3 sets of the changes to the index at the June review.The inclusions are Chalice Gold Mines (CHN AU), Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU) and Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU). The deletions are Austal Ltd (ASB AU), Perenti Global (PRN AU) and Resolute Mining (RSG AU). There are only 5 trading days to implementation of the changes and quite a lot to trade for passive funds. There are no real surprises and there will be pre-positioning in some of the names.Short interest has been dropping on the inclusions and rising on the deletions, another sign of pre-positioning prior to the announcement of the changes. We estimate more than half the passive flow has already been positioned for.

ASX200 Index Rebalance: A Lot of Pre-Positions Built Up

<p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the June index review on 11 June and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 18 June.</p><p>Today is the review cut-off date but with a 6 month averaging process we do not see one day of trading data making too much of a change in the forecast inclusions and exclusions.</p><p>We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chalice-gold-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20193:1" rel="noopener">Chalice Gold Mines (CHN AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> as potential inclusions in the index replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/resolute-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1960:1" rel="noopener">Resolute Mining (RSG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perenti-global-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20505:1" rel="noopener">Perenti Global (PRN AU)</a>.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amalgamated-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20978:1" rel="noopener">Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU)</a> is a low probability add while the corresponding deletion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>.</p><p>There is a large impact on the forecast adds and deletes but a lot of the stocks have moved significantly in the last couple of months.</p><p>Short interest on the forecast inclusions has been dropping of late while the short interest on the forecast deletions has been increasing steadily</p>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the June index review on 11 June and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 18 June.Today is the review cut-off date but with a 6 month averaging process we do not see one day of trading data making too much of a change in the forecast inclusions and exclusions.We see Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU), Chalice Gold Mines (CHN AU) and De Grey Mining (DEG AU) as potential inclusions in the index replacing Resolute Mining (RSG AU), Austal Ltd (ASB AU) and Perenti Global (PRN AU).Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU) is a low probability add while the corresponding deletion is G8 Education (GEM AU).There is a large impact on the forecast adds and deletes but a lot of the stocks have moved significantly in the last couple of months.Short interest on the forecast inclusions has been dropping of late while the short interest on the forecast deletions has been increasing steadily

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Gold Miners Shining

Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul class="">
<li><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6698" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a> continued strong BUY</strong></li>
<li>Mineral Resource increased 2% to 6.61Moz</li>
<li>2019 attributable production guided at 50–60koz Au</li>
<li><strong>AISC est. between A$1,050 to $1,150/oz, is realistic</strong></li>
<li> Using $1,300/oz attributable <strong>2019 EBIT will be between US$7.5-15m</strong>
</li>
<li><strong>2020 attributable EBIT of 150k/oz conservative $A54m</strong></li>
<li>
<strong>Price/EBIT ratio now 10.9 to 16.8</strong> (previous est. 8 to 9.1)</li>
<li>Expand AIM &amp; ASX coverage to 397 companies from next week</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6698" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5124" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5124:1">Azumah Resources (AZM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11276" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11276:1">Millennium Minerals (MOY AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9713" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9713:1">Metals X Ltd (MLX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6192" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1960" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1960:1">Resolute Mining (RSG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8946" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8946">Andromeda Metals (ADN AU)</a> <strong> </strong>
</li>
</ul>


Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) continued strong BUY
Mineral Resource increased 2% to 6.61Moz
2019 attributable production guided at 50–60koz Au
AISC est. between A$1,050 to $1,150/oz, is realistic
 Using $1,300/oz attributable 2019 EBIT will be between US$7.5-15m

2020 attributable EBIT of 150k/oz conservative $A54m

Price/EBIT ratio now 10.9 to 16.8 (previous est. 8 to 9.1)
Expand AIM &amp; ASX coverage to 397 companies from next week

Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), Azumah Resources (AZM AU), Millennium Minerals (MOY AU), Metals X Ltd (MLX AU), De Grey Mining (DEG AU) , Resolute Mining (RSG AU), Andromeda Metals (ADN AU)  



New J. Hutton Exploration Report (Week Ending 15/02/19)

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

<ul><li>Financial forensics remains an indispensable part of the short-seller's tool-kit. In this report, Evidente updates and expands its analysis of financial forensics, now that most ASX listed companies have reported their interim financial results <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/financial-forensic-part-i" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:6669">Financial Forensic - Part I</a></li><li>Since the launch of <em>Financial Forensics</em> in October 2016, the twenty stocks identified by Evidente as having the highest non-cash component of earnings have delivered a mean accumulated return -6.6%, well below the ASX200 (+9.6%).</li><li>Evidente has compiled an updated list of the twenty stocks which have the highest non-cash component of earnings, and in many cases have experienced a marked deterioration in earnings quality from the previous interim reporting season, including Blackmores, Webjet and Myer Holdings.  Some of these are growth stocks, trading on high multiples and with little margin for disappointing faithful investors.</li></ul>

Financial forensics remains an indispensable part of the short-seller's tool-kit. In this report, Evidente updates and expands its analysis of financial forensics, now that most ASX listed companies have reported their interim financial results Financial Forensic - Part ISince the launch of Financial Forensics in October 2016, the twenty stocks identified by Evidente as having the highest non-cash component of earnings have delivered a mean accumulated return -6.6%, well below the ASX200 (+9.6%).Evidente has compiled an updated list of the twenty stocks which have the highest non-cash component of earnings, and in many cases have experienced a marked deterioration in earnings quality from the previous interim reporting season, including Blackmores, Webjet and Myer Holdings.  Some of these are growth stocks, trading on high multiples and with little margin for disappointing faithful investors.

Financial Forensics - The Short-Seller's Indispensable Tool-Kit

Australia

Resolute Mining Limited explores for, produces and develops gold in Mali and Queensland, Australia. The Company's gold exploration projects include Syama and Ravenswood.

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Resolute Mining (RSG AU)

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There are 2 sets of changes to the ASX200 with CHN, ORE and UWL replacing ASB, PRN and RSG. There are 5 trading days to implementation, significant...

Brian Freitas

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Gold Miners Shining

We see 3 potential changes to the ASX200 in the June review. All inclusions/exclusions have over 3 days of ADV to trade from passive funds. Short...

Brian Freitas

New J. Hutton Exploration Report (Week Ending 15/02/19)

Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) continued strong BUY Mineral Resource increased 2% to 6.61Moz 2019 attributable production guided at 50–60koz Au AISC...

Boost Research

Financial Forensics - The Short-Seller's Indispensable Tool-Kit

Financial forensics remains an indispensable part of the short-seller's tool-kit. In this report, Evidente updates and expands its analysis of...

Sam Ferraro

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