Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our bullish outlook remains intact and is supported by the absence of breakdowns across major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) and ongoing positive market dynamics. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months.

Our bullish outlook remains intact and is supported by the absence of breakdowns across major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) and ongoing positive market dynamics. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months.

Global Equity Strategy: Stick With Reflation & Reopening Theme

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

The Spanish Government ends, de facto, the liberalizing regime that ruled over the Spanish economy since 1999, because it considers necessary to limit the possible acquisitions of strategic Spanish companies by ANY foreign investor after the COVID-19 hit.
The Spanish Government enhances anti-takeover rules:
<ul>
<li>Temporarily until June 30, 2021, the Government has suspended the liberalization regime for foreign direct investments made by residents and other countries of the EU and the EFTA. Any attempt to acquire over 10% of a Spanish listed company by any EU or EFTA corporate or investor must be approved by the Cabinet.
</li>
<li>In the case of investments of non-EU origin, the suspension of the liberalization regime is maintained indefinitely, until a new legislative change is introduced.</li>
<li>This protects the Ibex 35 companies from takeover raids by European rivals.</li>
</ul>
This rule could make it possible to avoid hypothetical bids of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:812:1" rel="noopener">Total Sa (FP FP)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eni-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21185:1" rel="noopener">Eni SpA (ENI IM)</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/repsol-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21292:1" rel="noopener">Repsol SA (REP SM)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-telekom-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21611:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Telekom Ag (DTE GR)</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telefonica-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21299:1" rel="noopener">Telefonica SA (TEF SM)</a> , which have been the subject of rumours in the market.
<ul>
<li>Analysts see Repsol and Telefónica as the most vulnerable members of the IBEX 35 index, due to their current low valuation. Repsol trades at 4.9x EV/Forward EBITDA vs. the median of comparable companies, 6.3x. Telefonica is trading at 5.2x EV/Forward EBITA vs. the median of comparable companies, 6.5x.</li>
</ul>
Some transactions that are underway could be affected. For example, the French group Vinci agreed to buy the industrial services division of ACS, for over €5 bn (for reference: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/acs-unlocking-value-via-disposals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44311" rel="noopener">ACS: Unlocking Value Via Disposals</a>).

The Spanish Government ends, de facto, the liberalizing regime that ruled over the Spanish economy since 1999, because it considers necessary to limit the possible acquisitions of strategic Spanish companies by ANY foreign investor after the COVID-19 hit.
The Spanish Government enhances anti-takeover rules:

Temporarily until June 30, 2021, the Government has suspended the liberalization regime for foreign direct investments made by residents and other countries of the EU and the EFTA. Any attempt to acquire over 10% of a Spanish listed company by any EU or EFTA corporate or investor must be approved by the Cabinet.

In the case of investments of non-EU origin, the suspension of the liberalization regime is maintained indefinitely, until a new legislative change is introduced.
This protects the Ibex 35 companies from takeover raids by European rivals.

This rule could make it possible to avoid hypothetical bids of Total Sa (FP FP) or Eni SpA (ENI IM) for Repsol SA (REP SM) or Deutsche Telekom Ag (DTE GR) for Telefonica SA (TEF SM) , which have been the subject of rumours in the market.

Analysts see Repsol and Telefónica as the most vulnerable members of the IBEX 35 index, due to their current low valuation. Repsol trades at 4.9x EV/Forward EBITDA vs. the median of comparable companies, 6.3x. Telefonica is trading at 5.2x EV/Forward EBITA vs. the median of comparable companies, 6.5x.

Some transactions that are underway could be affected. For example, the French group Vinci agreed to buy the industrial services division of ACS, for over €5 bn (for reference: ACS: Unlocking Value Via Disposals).

Enhanced Limits to Investments in Spanish Companies

Credit

With the end of the cycle, precipitated by the coronavirus pandemic, central banks will step in and there is no risk of interest rates increasing anytime soon.
Redemptions and lack of liquidity have brought down bond prices, and have, therefore, created attractive entry points for some issuers. Prices may not be as extreme as two weeks ago, but still there are opportunities aplenty.
The European Central Bank will purchase sovereign and corporate debt at a pace never seen before. It will provide a strong support for investment grade issuers. However, the credit market remains fragmented. The activity on primary market has not recovered for riskier issuers.
I have compiled a list of bonds by Spanish issuers (or whose parent is Spanish) in a variety of sectors. Most are multinational companies and should be able to emerge less harmed by the looming crisis.
Please read on.
(All data have been sourced from Capital IQ)

With the end of the cycle, precipitated by the coronavirus pandemic, central banks will step in and there is no risk of interest rates increasing anytime soon.
Redemptions and lack of liquidity have brought down bond prices, and have, therefore, created attractive entry points for some issuers. Prices may not be as extreme as two weeks ago, but still there are opportunities aplenty.
The European Central Bank will purchase sovereign and corporate debt at a pace never seen before. It will provide a strong support for investment grade issuers. However, the credit market remains fragmented. The activity on primary market has not recovered for riskier issuers.
I have compiled a list of bonds by Spanish issuers (or whose parent is Spanish) in a variety of sectors. Most are multinational companies and should be able to emerge less harmed by the looming crisis.
Please read on.
(All data have been sourced from Capital IQ)

The Spanish government prevents takeover bids on strategic listed Spanish companies where the bidder (or its parent) comes from outside the European Economic Area, and the CNMV bans net short positions.
<ul class="">
<li>When they cross a 10% threshold shareholding in companies acting in sectors considered strategic from companies or when as a result of stake acquisitions, control of the Board is obtained.</li>
<li>Or when the investors or trade buyers that take over more than 10% of a company or the control of the Board (in any sector) are state-controlled companies or sovereign funds.
</li>
<li>The aim is to avoid that Companies from outside the EEA could take advantage of the current valuations to take over listed Spanish companies acting in sectors considered strategic.</li>
<li>On 30 March, the decree related to foreign investments was refined:
<ul>
<li>Extended to companies domiciled in the EEA whose parent is domiciled in countries that do not belong to the EEA.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
Companies such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iberdrola-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21276:1" rel="noopener">Iberdrola SA (IBE SM)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/repsol-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21292:1" rel="noopener">Repsol SA (REP SM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telefonica-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21299:1" rel="noopener">Telefonica SA (TEF SM)</a> are looking good value (read the report for metrics).

The Spanish government prevents takeover bids on strategic listed Spanish companies where the bidder (or its parent) comes from outside the European Economic Area, and the CNMV bans net short positions.

When they cross a 10% threshold shareholding in companies acting in sectors considered strategic from companies or when as a result of stake acquisitions, control of the Board is obtained.
Or when the investors or trade buyers that take over more than 10% of a company or the control of the Board (in any sector) are state-controlled companies or sovereign funds.

The aim is to avoid that Companies from outside the EEA could take advantage of the current valuations to take over listed Spanish companies acting in sectors considered strategic.
On 30 March, the decree related to foreign investments was refined:

Extended to companies domiciled in the EEA whose parent is domiciled in countries that do not belong to the EEA.



Companies such as Iberdrola SA (IBE SM) , Repsol SA (REP SM) and Telefonica SA (TEF SM) are looking good value (read the report for metrics).

Limits to Foreign Investments in Spanish Corporations During the Coronavirus Crisis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

We continue to believe the weight of the evidence points to a new leg higher for global equities, a viewpoint that is supported by the several international markets that are breaking out to new highs or making bullish inflections since our previous Int’l Compass (10/31/19). While developments continue to lean bullish, global equities have rallied substantially since the start of October, making it perfectly reasonable to expect some consolidation of recent gains which would allow for a more meaningful move higher.

We continue to believe the weight of the evidence points to a new leg higher for global equities, a viewpoint that is supported by the several international markets that are breaking out to new highs or making bullish inflections since our previous Int’l Compass (10/31/19). While developments continue to lean bullish, global equities have rallied substantially since the start of October, making it perfectly reasonable to expect some consolidation of recent gains which would allow for a more meaningful move higher.

Global Equity Strategy: The Pause that Refreshes?

Spain

Repsol S.A., through subsidiaries, explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas, refines petroleum, and transports petroleum products and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).  The Company retails gasoline and other products through its chain of gasoline filling stations.  Repsol's petroleum reserves are in Spain, Latin America, Asia, North Africa, and the Middle East and United States.

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Repsol SA (REP SM)

Global Equity Strategy: Stick With Reflation & Reopening Theme

Our bullish outlook remains intact supported by the absence of breakdowns across major global indexes. Until this changes, we believe global...

Vermilion Research

Enhanced Limits to Investments in Spanish Companies

Any attempt to acquire over 10% of a Spanish listed company by any foreign investor must be approved by the Cabinet. This could prevent bids of...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Spanish Issuers' Credit Opportunities

With the end of the cycle, precipitated by the coronavirus pandemic, central banks will step in and there is no risk of interest rates increasing...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Limits to Foreign Investments in Spanish Corporations During the Coronavirus Crisis

The Spanish government prevents takeover bids on strategic listed Spanish companies where the bidder (or its parent) comes from outside the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Global Equity Strategy: The Pause that Refreshes?

We continue to believe the weight of the evidence points to a new leg higher for global equities, a viewpoint that is supported by the several...

Vermilion Research

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