Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<p>The market reacted slightly negatively to news that Renesas was interested in tabling a EUR67.5 per share offer for Dialog Semiconductors. On the contrary we believe that such an acquisition would benefit both companies and that the impact on Renesas’ balance may be manageable even without more equity capital. Given that the stock is down 12.4% from its recent peak we believe this is a nice chance to buy into the supply crunch in automotive semiconductors on this news. The risk of a raise in the acquisition price is non-zero but we do not believe things would become egregious.</p>

The market reacted slightly negatively to news that Renesas was interested in tabling a EUR67.5 per share offer for Dialog Semiconductors. On the contrary we believe that such an acquisition would benefit both companies and that the impact on Renesas’ balance may be manageable even without more equity capital. Given that the stock is down 12.4% from its recent peak we believe this is a nice chance to buy into the supply crunch in automotive semiconductors on this news. The risk of a raise in the acquisition price is non-zero but we do not believe things would become egregious.

Renesas – Selloff on Dialog Announcement Opens Up Opportunity

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

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<p><em>This week in StubWorld ...</em></p>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)</a> outperforms as global carmakers face a chip shortage;</li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a> increases its questionable stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a>; and</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a>'s ramps up its buybacks.</li>
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<p>Preceding my comments on these holdcos are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...




Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) outperforms as global carmakers face a chip shortage;

Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB) increases its questionable stake in Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB); and

Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)'s ramps up its buybacks.




Preceding my comments on these holdcos are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


StubWorld: TBS/Tokyo Electron, Intouch/Gulf, Jardines' Buybacks

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Automakers are starting to struggle with chip shortages as the Nikkei reports <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Global-chip-shortage-threatens-automakers-worldwide" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>, <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Nissan-to-cut-car-production-due-to-lack-of-chips" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> and <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Honda-cuts-car-production-on-massive-chip-shortage" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. This is an extension of a broad chip shortage globally as WFH demand, the launch of new consoles, GPUs and CPUs and rapidly recovering auto sales pour some short-term fuel on the long-term fire of expanding electrification and digitalisation. No wonder then that TSMC is up 134% from its March lows, but Renesas is up an even more impressive 248% since its lows of 2020 and could continue to outperform.</p>

Automakers are starting to struggle with chip shortages as the Nikkei reports here, here and here. This is an extension of a broad chip shortage globally as WFH demand, the launch of new consoles, GPUs and CPUs and rapidly recovering auto sales pour some short-term fuel on the long-term fire of expanding electrification and digitalisation. No wonder then that TSMC is up 134% from its March lows, but Renesas is up an even more impressive 248% since its lows of 2020 and could continue to outperform.

Renesas – Auto Chip Shortage Could Drive Further Gains

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The Semiconductor Industry Association released world semiconductor revenues for November.  The trend is still positive with year-to-date revenues 5.9% above those of 2019.  This helps underscore the improved guidance chip makers are providing.</p>

The Semiconductor Industry Association released world semiconductor revenues for November.  The trend is still positive with year-to-date revenues 5.9% above those of 2019.  This helps underscore the improved guidance chip makers are providing.

November Semiconductor Sales Continue Upward Trend

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) were able to shrug off recent news of a more contagious Covid variant that popped-up in the UK. Additionally, Covid fears have done nothing to derail ongoing positive market dynamics. As long as support levels hold and market dynamics remain positive, our outlook remains bullish and we continue to view any weakness as a buying opportunity. Actionable Themes in today's report: Services, Technology, Manufacturing, and Materials.</p>

Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) were able to shrug off recent news of a more contagious Covid variant that popped-up in the UK. Additionally, Covid fears have done nothing to derail ongoing positive market dynamics. As long as support levels hold and market dynamics remain positive, our outlook remains bullish and we continue to view any weakness as a buying opportunity. Actionable Themes in today's report: Services, Technology, Manufacturing, and Materials.

Global Equity Strategy: Support Levels Holding; Bullish Outlook Intact

Japan

Renesas Electronics Corporation researches, develops, designs and manufactures electronic components such as semiconductors and integrated devices.

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Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)

Renesas – Selloff on Dialog Announcement Opens Up Opportunity

Despite the market's negative reaction to the announcement of a potential offer for Dialog, we very much like the news for Renesas. Details below.

Mio Kato

StubWorld: TBS/Tokyo Electron, Intouch/Gulf, Jardines' Buybacks

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) outperforms as global carmakers face a chip shortage; Gulf Energy increases its questionable stake in Intouch; and Jardine...

David Blennerhassett

Renesas – Auto Chip Shortage Could Drive Further Gains

Renesas could continue to outperform despite a 248% rally from its 2020 lows as automotive electrification joins work from home demand to create a...

Mio Kato

November Semiconductor Sales Continue Upward Trend

The just-released November chip sales figures showed surprising strength. This Smartkarma Insight explains why the chip market is burgeoning while...

Jim Handy

Global Equity Strategy: Support Levels Holding; Bullish Outlook Intact

As long as support levels hold and market dynamics remain positive, our outlook remains bullish and we continue to view any weakness as a buying...

Vermilion Research

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