European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After four prospective offers from a Remgro-led consortium, Mediclinic's Board is to recommend the latest one: 504p/share in cash, cum dividend. The PUSU deadline has been extended until 5 August.</li>
<li>The offer values Mediclinic at c. 10x EV/Fwd EBITDA, both above the median of comparables and the failed offer for Spire. At 35% premium, it seems reasonable, but not overly generous.</li>
<li>After four proposals, I doubt the consortium will increase its offer, and investors will be happy to part with the cash. Gross spread is 3.92%. Long MDC LN.</li>
</ul>


After four prospective offers from a Remgro-led consortium, Mediclinic's Board is to recommend the latest one: 504p/share in cash, cum dividend. The PUSU deadline has been extended until 5 August.
The offer values Mediclinic at c. 10x EV/Fwd EBITDA, both above the median of comparables and the failed offer for Spire. At 35% premium, it seems reasonable, but not overly generous.
After four proposals, I doubt the consortium will increase its offer, and investors will be happy to part with the cash. Gross spread is 3.92%. Long MDC LN.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The lows have likely been established for this correction, but a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and Nikkei 225 are each testing their respective downtrends. The EURO STOXX 50 is testing resistance in the 4040-4090 range. Germany's DAX is testing major resistance at 14,815-14,950.</li>
<li>It is likely that this initial 2-3 week bounce has run its course; stick with cyclical value and defensives, areas we have been focused on for most of 2022.</li>
</ul>


The lows have likely been established for this correction, but a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows.
Japan's TOPIX and Nikkei 225 are each testing their respective downtrends. The EURO STOXX 50 is testing resistance in the 4040-4090 range. Germany's DAX is testing major resistance at 14,815-14,950.
It is likely that this initial 2-3 week bounce has run its course; stick with cyclical value and defensives, areas we have been focused on for most of 2022.


Sticking With Cyclical Value and Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology

South Africa

Remgro Ltd is an investment holding company that invests in banking and financial services, packaging, glass products, medical services, mining, petroleum, wine and spirits, food and home and personal care products. It holds investments, amongst others, in FirstRand Bank, RMB Holdings, Rainbow Chicken, Medi-Clinic Corp., Unilever South Africa, Tsb Sugar and Total South Africa.

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Remgro Ltd (REM SJ)

Remgro/Mediclinic: Healthier Offer

In a nutshell, this deal may be about an opportunistic buy-and-hold acquisition by both Remgro (which will increase its stake by c. 5%) and MSC,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Sticking With Cyclical Value and Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology

Sticking With Cyclical Value & Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology. 2-3 week bounce has likely run its course with $TOPIX $Nikkei 225,...

Vermilion Research

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