Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

Our bearish outlook for 2016 predicated on the rising risk of a “sudden stop” for China and uncontrolled FX depreciation across EM is unfortunately starting to play out; although markets currently feel very oversold and could rally sharply over the short term, we believe that there is further downside for EM equities in absolute and relative terms over the remainder of the year.

Our bearish outlook for 2016 predicated on the rising risk of a “sudden stop” for China and uncontrolled FX depreciation across EM is unfortunately starting to play out; although markets currently feel very oversold and could rally sharply over the short term, we believe that there is further downside for EM equities in absolute and relative terms over the remainder of the year.

Information Technology Consultant

Ishita Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

As the COP21 summit flagged off in Paris yesterday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, along with his French counterpart, Francois Hollande, announced the International Solar Alliance (ISA). The ISA aims to have 121 signatories, including the US and China, as well as a long list of developing countries situated between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn.It aims to mobilize $1tn worth of investment by 2030 towards developing solar power around the world, especially in the sun rich countries…

As the COP21 summit flagged off in Paris yesterday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, along with his French counterpart, Francois Hollande, announced the International Solar Alliance (ISA). The ISA aims to have 121 signatories, including the US and China, as well as a long list of developing countries situated between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn.It aims to mobilize $1tn worth of investment by 2030 towards developing solar power around the world, especially in the sun rich countries…

Announcing the International Solar Alliance

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

In <a href="http://www.smartkarma.com/insights/how-oil-can-head-over-100-by-2017" target="_blank">my last thoughts on oil</a>, where I plotted some of the structural factors that might take it over $100 in the next few years, I noted that the probability of a December OPEC cut was being underpriced by the market.Today we have seen headlines that Saudi will do, Draghi-style, "whatever it takes" to stabilize the oil price including co-operating with the broader OPEC cartel.A shift in Saudi Arabian production strategy was one of the main drivers of the "double dip" in oil prices over the summer…

In my last thoughts on oil, where I plotted some of the structural factors that might take it over $100 in the next few years, I noted that the probability of a December OPEC cut was being underpriced by the market.Today we have seen headlines that Saudi will do, Draghi-style, "whatever it takes" to stabilize the oil price including co-operating with the broader OPEC cartel.A shift in Saudi Arabian production strategy was one of the main drivers of the "double dip" in oil prices over the summer…

Oil markets continue to be turgid as producers look to make up lower prices by increased volume.&nbsp;This has led to markets that are severely overstretched versus their fundamentals.If we look at the oil futures curve structure and elements likely to impact it, oil looks like it may surprise to the upside much as it has surprised to the downside.This piece summarises the bull case for a complex topic.

Oil markets continue to be turgid as producers look to make up lower prices by increased volume.&nbsp;This has led to markets that are severely overstretched versus their fundamentals.If we look at the oil futures curve structure and elements likely to impact it, oil looks like it may surprise to the upside much as it has surprised to the downside.This piece summarises the bull case for a complex topic.

The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) to be held in Paris is another attempt to reign in global warming.&nbsp;India, the 3rd largest carbon emitter has, among other things, committed to reducing emissions by changing its energy mix to 40% from renewable sources of energy by 2030. This is an ambitious target and India's plan revolves around the sun. The government is taking steps in the right direction and the sector is receiving a lot of interest. While a lot is happening, let&rsquo;s take a look at the developments that could make this a very favourable sector to invest in.

The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) to be held in Paris is another attempt to reign in global warming.&nbsp;India, the 3rd largest carbon emitter has, among other things, committed to reducing emissions by changing its energy mix to 40% from renewable sources of energy by 2030. This is an ambitious target and India's plan revolves around the sun. The government is taking steps in the right direction and the sector is receiving a lot of interest. While a lot is happening, let&rsquo;s take a look at the developments that could make this a very favourable sector to invest in.

India

Reliance Industries Ltd. manufactures petrochemicals, synthetic fibers, fiber intermediates, textiles, blended yarn and polyester staple fiber. The Company also owns a petroleum refinery cum petrochemicals complex in Jamnagar, India that produces a wide range of products such as gasoline, superior kerosene oil and liquefied petroleum gas.

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Reliance Industries (RIL IN)

China and the EM Ugly Contest

Our bearish outlook for 2016 predicated on the rising risk of a “sudden stop” for China and uncontrolled FX depreciation across EM is unfortunately...

John-Paul Smith

Announcing the International Solar Alliance

As the COP21 summit flagged off in Paris yesterday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, along with his French counterpart, Francois Hollande,...

Ishita Jain

Is an OPEC Cut Imminent?

In my last thoughts on oil, where I plotted some of the structural factors that might take it over $100 in the next few years, I noted that the...

Emad Mostaque

How Oil Can Head over $100 by 2017

Oil markets continue to be turgid as producers look to make up lower prices by increased volume. This has led to markets that are severely...

Emad Mostaque

The Case for Solar Energy in India

The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) to be held in Paris is another attempt to reign in global warming. India, the 3rd largest...

Ishita Jain

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