External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>ITC: ITC delivered a strong revenue and EBITDA growth and the beat was largely on account of a sharp jump in the non-cigarette business</li><li>Cigarette revenue growth was a marginal beat at 29% YoY (HSIE 27%, 7% three-year CAGR)</li><li>Cigarette volume growth was at ~26% (2% three-year CAGR)</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

ITC: ITC delivered a strong revenue and EBITDA growth and the beat was largely on account of a sharp jump in the non-cigarette businessCigarette revenue growth was a marginal beat at 29% YoY (HSIE 27%, 7% three-year CAGR)Cigarette volume growth was at ~26% (2% three-year CAGR)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ITC, NTPC, Ashok Leyland, The Ramco Cements, Alkyl Amines

HSIE Results Daily: ITC, NTPC, Ashok Leyland, The Ramco Cements

<div><div><div><ul><li>High volume growth on a low base YoY: We estimate that 15 companies under coverage would report ~7% QoQ aggregate seasonal sales volume decline.</li><li>Mixed realisation gains QoQ: While energy cost continues to rise QoQ, the industry could not fully pass on the inflation across all regions.</li><li>Cost inflation elevated: We estimate that overall fuel costs would soar 7/42% QoQ/YoY amid rising imported coal and pet coke prices.</li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: none;"><li> </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p></div></div></div>

High volume growth on a low base YoY: We estimate that 15 companies under coverage would report ~7% QoQ aggregate seasonal sales volume decline.Mixed realisation gains QoQ: While energy cost continues to rise QoQ, the industry could not fully pass on the inflation across all regions.Cost inflation elevated: We estimate that overall fuel costs would soar 7/42% QoQ/YoY amid rising imported coal and pet coke prices. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement - Cost Inflation Continues, Margin Contracts

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang

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Nirmal Bang, one of the leading stock broking companies in India, caters to retail and institutional clients by offering them a range of financial products and services, including equities, derivatives, commodities, currency derivatives, mutual funds, IPOs, insurance, depository services and PMS.

Nirmal Bang is drawn from a diversity of professional backgrounds, and blend of experience, skill and dedication is shared with its clients. Nirmal Bang emphasizes adequate, thorough research local and world-wide developments, balancing these with the astute discovery of intrinsic values, synergies and growth. The aim is simply to help the investors to maximize their returns.

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Summary of change in recommendation of our coverage universe: We have cut targets prices for our covered companies by 10-30% on account of reduced earnings expectations as well as lower target multiples.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Near term earnings outlook weak and positive triggers missing: We expect earnings to remain weak for the cement sector for the next two quarters on account of elevated costs and weak realizations amid a seasonally weak demand period.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Reversal in coal and crude prices can offer some solace: We believe that high competitive intensity will subside once the inflationary pressures recede and hence reversal of higher coal and crude prices is important.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Summary of change in recommendation of our coverage universe: We have cut targets prices for our covered companies by 10-30% on account of reduced earnings expectations as well as lower target multiples.Near term earnings outlook weak and positive triggers missing: We expect earnings to remain weak for the cement sector for the next two quarters on account of elevated costs and weak realizations amid a seasonally weak demand period.Reversal in coal and crude prices can offer some solace: We believe that high competitive intensity will subside once the inflationary pressures recede and hence reversal of higher coal and crude prices is important.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement Sector - Headwinds Galore; Turning 'neutral' on the Sector

<div><div><div><ul><li>JK Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on JK Cement (JKCE), with a lower TP of INR 2,485 (11.5x Mar-23E consolidated EBITDA).</li></ul><div><div><ul><li>The Ramco Cements: We maintain ADD on The Ramco Cements (TRCL), with a revised target price of INR 745/share (13x Mar-24E EBITDA).</li><li>Nuvoco Vistas: We maintain BUY on Nuvoco Vistas, with an unchanged TP of INR 620/share (11x its consolidated Mar-24E EBITDA).</li></ul><div><div><div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

JK Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on JK Cement (JKCE), with a lower TP of INR 2,485 (11.5x Mar-23E consolidated EBITDA).The Ramco Cements: We maintain ADD on The Ramco Cements (TRCL), with a revised target price of INR 745/share (13x Mar-24E EBITDA).Nuvoco Vistas: We maintain BUY on Nuvoco Vistas, with an unchanged TP of INR 620/share (11x its consolidated Mar-24E EBITDA).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: JK Cement, The Ramco Cements, Nuvoco Vistas, Heidelberg Cement, Karur Vysya Bank

India

The Ramco Cements Limited manufactures cement, ready mix concrete and dry mix products.  The Company also exports  cement and owns and operates a private sector wind mill power generating farm.

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Ramco Cements (TRCL IN)

HSIE Results Daily: ITC, NTPC, Ashok Leyland, The Ramco Cements, Alkyl Amines

ITC: ITC delivered a strong revenue and EBITDA growth and the beat was largely on account of a sharp jump in the non-cigarette business

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: ITC, NTPC, Ashok Leyland, The Ramco Cements

ITC: ITC delivered a strong revenue and EBITDA growth and the beat was largely on account of a sharp jump in the non-cigarette business

HDFC Securities

Cement - Cost Inflation Continues, Margin Contracts

High volume growth on a low base YoY: We estimate that 15 companies under coverage would report ~7% QoQ aggregate seasonal sales volume decline.

HDFC Securities

Cement Sector - Headwinds Galore; Turning 'neutral' on the Sector

We are turning ‘neutral’ on the cement sector as we believe that there are multiple headwinds, which will inhibit earnings growth and in turn lead...

Nirmal Bang

HSIE Results Daily: JK Cement, The Ramco Cements, Nuvoco Vistas, Heidelberg Cement, Karur Vysya Bank

JK Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on JK Cement (JKCE), with a lower TP of INR 2,485 (11.5x Mar-23E consolidated EBITDA).

HDFC Securities

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