Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

On the surface, there would appear to be challenging times ahead for the restaurant industry, with year over-over traffic declines across much of the industry and rising labor costs on the horizon. However, we believe it would be shortsighted for investors to overlook this category, as there are a number of compelling operators that are redefining the way consumer discretionary companies adapt to constantly evolving consumer expectations regarding value, convenience, health, and technology. Our analysis starts with the fast-casual restaurant category, which is not only changing consumers' expectations regarding restaurant experiences, but also influencing how the market values restaurant concepts and forcing traditional quick-service and casual-dining chains to reinvent themselves. However, one of the more underexplored developments in the restaurant space thus far in 2016 is a bifurcation within the fast-casual category, with a class of chains thriving but several other players aspiring to be the "next Chipotle" finding success more difficult (not to mention Chipotle's own struggles). We've spent 2015 and 2016 getting to know many of the up-and-coming privately held fast-casual players to gain a better understanding of what attributes restaurant concepts must have to develop an economic moat and drive traffic in today's environment. We then examined our restaurant coverage to see where we can locate similar traits and, more importantly, where the market may not be giving restaurant chains enough credit. We believe the market may be underestimating the changes that several players in our restaurant coverage have made to adapt to these trends, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7641" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7641:1">Starbucks Corp (SBUX US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8104" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8104:1">Panera Bread Co (PNRA US)</a>, both of which trade at a significant discount to our respective longer-term DCF-driven fair value estimates of $63 and $250.Analyst: R. J. Hottovy, CFA

On the surface, there would appear to be challenging times ahead for the restaurant industry, with year over-over traffic declines across much of the industry and rising labor costs on the horizon. However, we believe it would be shortsighted for investors to overlook this category, as there are a number of compelling operators that are redefining the way consumer discretionary companies adapt to constantly evolving consumer expectations regarding value, convenience, health, and technology. Our analysis starts with the fast-casual restaurant category, which is not only changing consumers' expectations regarding restaurant experiences, but also influencing how the market values restaurant concepts and forcing traditional quick-service and casual-dining chains to reinvent themselves. However, one of the more underexplored developments in the restaurant space thus far in 2016 is a bifurcation within the fast-casual category, with a class of chains thriving but several other players aspiring to be the "next Chipotle" finding success more difficult (not to mention Chipotle's own struggles). We've spent 2015 and 2016 getting to know many of the up-and-coming privately held fast-casual players to gain a better understanding of what attributes restaurant concepts must have to develop an economic moat and drive traffic in today's environment. We then examined our restaurant coverage to see where we can locate similar traits and, more importantly, where the market may not be giving restaurant chains enough credit. We believe the market may be underestimating the changes that several players in our restaurant coverage have made to adapt to these trends, including Starbucks Corp (SBUX US) and Panera Bread Co (PNRA US), both of which trade at a significant discount to our respective longer-term DCF-driven fair value estimates of $63 and $250.Analyst: R. J. Hottovy, CFA

Lessons From the Next Generation of Moats in the Fast-Casual Restaurant Industry

Despite China's risks and macroeconomic issues, we believe even small rates of growth will yield significant opportunities for luxury firms.China's size, economic growth potential, and ultimate expansion of the high-end consumer market can substantially alter the outlook for many brands.With Chinese consumers already responsible for 30% of global luxury goods purchases, the continued growth of wealthy and upper-middle-class consumers appears to offer great potential, but also a high basis of comparison.We believe the market will experience solid growth, driven by the vast number of consumers entering the middle class. With this trend, we believe Chinese consumers will behave more like their Western counterparts, with more frequent lifestyle purchases of aspirational luxuries on a per household basis and fewer purchases of status symbol goods that were often a store of wealth.We see brands such as Ralph Lauren, Tiffany, Burberry, and Swatch as the most likely beneficiaries.Analyst: Paul Swinland

Despite China's risks and macroeconomic issues, we believe even small rates of growth will yield significant opportunities for luxury firms.China's size, economic growth potential, and ultimate expansion of the high-end consumer market can substantially alter the outlook for many brands.With Chinese consumers already responsible for 30% of global luxury goods purchases, the continued growth of wealthy and upper-middle-class consumers appears to offer great potential, but also a high basis of comparison.We believe the market will experience solid growth, driven by the vast number of consumers entering the middle class. With this trend, we believe Chinese consumers will behave more like their Western counterparts, with more frequent lifestyle purchases of aspirational luxuries on a per household basis and fewer purchases of status symbol goods that were often a store of wealth.We see brands such as Ralph Lauren, Tiffany, Burberry, and Swatch as the most likely beneficiaries.Analyst: Paul Swinland

China's Luxury Market Shifting From Status to Consumption As China's Middle Class Expands

United States

Skechers U.S.A., Inc. designs and markets branded contemporary casual, active, rugged, and lifestyle footwear for men, women, and children.  The Company sells its products to department stores and specialty retailers.  Skechers also sells its products internationally through distributors and directly to consumers through its own retail stores.

Crocs, Inc. designs and manufactures shoes.  The Company produces soft, lightweight, non-marking, slip- and odor-resistant shoes made of closed-cell resin material.  Crocs manufactures men's, women's, and children's shoes and markets them to retail chains.

Tapestry, Inc. designs and markets clothes and accessories. The Company offers handbags, leather goods, footwear, fragrance, jewelry, outer wear, ready-to-wear, scarves, sunwear, travel accessories, and watches. Tapestry serves customers in the United States.

VF Corporation is an international apparel company. The Company owns a broad portfolio of brands in the jeanswear, outerwear, packs, footwear, sportswear and occupational apparel categories. VF Corp's products are marketed to consumers shopping in specialty stores, upscale and traditional department stores, national chains and mass merchants.

PVH Corp. designs, sources, manufactures, and markets men's, women's, and children's apparel and footwear.  The Company markets its products at a wholesale level through department store chains and directly to consumers through retail stores. PVH Corp offers attire that includes dress shirts, sportswear, neckwear, and footwear.

Levi Strauss & Co. manufactures and distributes apparels. The Company offers jeans, casual pants, tops, jackets, shirts, and other related products. Levi Strauss serves customers worldwide.

Capri Holdings Limited retails apparel. The Company offers fashion luxury women's and men's accessories, footwear, apparel, watches, jewelry, eyewear, and fragrance products, as well as provides delivery services. Capri Holdings serves customers worldwide.

Under Armour, Inc. develops, markets, and distributes branded performance products for men, women, and youth. The Company designs and sells a broad offering of apparel and accessories made of synthetic microfibers.

Samsonite International SA designs, manufactures, and distributes luggage. The Company's products include suitcases, garment bags, casual bags, business cases, clothing, shoes, and accessories. Samsonite also licenses their trademarks for use on products such as travel accessories, leather goods, handbags, clothing, and furniture.

Columbia Sportswear Company designs, manufactures, markets, and distributes active outdoor apparel.  The Company's products include outerwear, sportswear, rugged footwear, and related accessories.  Columbia's products are sold to specialty and department store retailers in the United States and other countries.

SRF Limited is a multi-business Indian multinational engaging in the manufacture of chemical based industrial intermediates. The Company has a business portfolio that encompasses technical textiles, chemicals, packaging films and engineering plastics.

Page Industries Limited develops, produces, and distributes branded underwear for men, women, and children in India and Sri Lanka.

Bosideng International Holdings Limited develops down apparel products in the Peoples Republic of China. The Company's products include down jackets, vests, and pants which it offers through retail outlets located in multiple cities.

Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK)

Shenzhou International Group Holdings Ltd manufactures and processes textiles.  The Company produces, dyes, finishes, prints, embroiders, cuts, and sews knitwear.

ASICS CORPORATION manufactures general sporting goods and equipment.  The Company's products, such as athletic shoes and sportswear, are distributed in the United States, Europe, Australia, and Asia.

Brunello Cucinelli SpA is a luxury fashion company, known for its cashmere products as well as exclusive brands.  The Company designs, manufactures, and distributes clothing and accessories globally for men and women.

Puma SE designs, manufactures, and sells sporting goods and apparels. The Company produces running, tennis, training, and basketball shoes, as well as t-shirts and accessories. Puma serves customers worldwide.

Pandora A/S designs, manufactures, markets, and distributes hand finished and modern jewellery made from primarily sterling  silver, gold, precious and semiprecious stones and Murano glass. The Company offers rings, bracelets, necklaces and earings.

The Swatch Group AG manufactures watches, watch components, jewelry, miniature batteries, liquid crystal displays, and scoreboards. The Company produces watches under various branded names, as well as operates retail boutiques. Swatch Group serves customers worldwide.

Gildan Activewear Inc. manufactures and markets branded basic activewear.  The Company sells its products principally in the wholesale imprinted activewear segment of the North American apparel market.  Gildan sells cotton T-shirts, placket collar golf shirts, tank tops, and sweatshirts.

Ralph Lauren Corporation designs, markets, and distributes men's, women's and children's apparel, accessories, fragrances, and home furnishings. The Company's products are sold under a wide range of brands. Ralph Lauren's operations include wholesale, retail, and licensing.

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Ralph Lauren (RL US)

Lessons From the Next Generation of Moats in the Fast-Casual Restaurant Industry

On the surface, there would appear to be challenging times ahead for the restaurant industry, with year over-over traffic declines across much of...

Morningstar, Inc.

China's Luxury Market Shifting From Status to Consumption As China's Middle Class Expands

Despite China's risks and macroeconomic issues, we believe even small rates of growth will yield significant opportunities for luxury firms.China's...

Morningstar, Inc.

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